Now that the draft has come and gone, we finally have a good idea of what most teams rosters will look like next season. While there are a few pieces yet to fall in place (I’m looking at you Dez Bryant), I thought it would be a good idea to begin breaking down the dynasty stock of key players on each team division by division in anticipation of the season.
For each team I have listed a player I feel is undervalued in most leagues, a player I feel is overvalued, and a deep sleeper for those playing in larger leagues. Now, let’s get started with a look at the AFC South.
Undervalued – DeAndre Hopkins, WR
I’ll admit that this is kind of a cop-out right off the bat. Hopkins clearly carries a lot of value in all formats. That said, Hopkins bounced back in a big way last season and should be viewed similarly to Odell Beckham – a top 5 asset in both PPR and standard leagues
Overvalued – Deshaun Watson, QB
Last season, Watson threw a touchdown on an insane 9.3% of his passes. For comparison, Aaron Rodgers, Peyton Manning, and Tom Brady’s career TD percentages are 6.4%, 5.7%, and 5.5% and they collectively only have one season with a TD% as high as Watson’s was last season. In short – expect serious regression to hit Watson especially when you consider he is returning from a serious knee injury.
Deep Sleeper – Jordan Akins, TE
The big problem with Akins is that he’ll be a 26-year-old rookie. He also didn’t earn much pre-draft hype. These two factors have him largely flying under the radar in dynasty leagues. Akins, however, is a talented pass catcher who was drafted in the 3rd round to an ascending offense. He doesn’t have the upside of Mike Gesicki or Dallas Goedert but if you’re scrambling for a TE to produce this season, Akins has a chance to do just that.
Undervalued – Eric Ebron, TE
Ebron has routinely been a disappointment to fantasy owners after the Lions drafted him in the 1st round in 2014. Initially, his move to the Colts didn’t make much noise. However, Andrew Luck has TY Hilton and a lot of question marks for weapons this season. Head coach Frank Reich comes from Philadelphia where tight ends Zach Ertz and Trey Burton had success. I wouldn’t be surprised to see Ebron earn a high level of targets and end up a value at his current price.
Overvalued – Nyheim Hines, RB
As of my writing this, 3 of my dynasty leagues have had their rookie drafts. Hines has been drafted 23rd, 16th, and 11th in those 3 drafts. I can’t quite understand why. Both Marlon Mack and Jordan Wilkins profile as more likely to take over the Colts backfield. Hines has talent, but he’s being drafted like he’s the favorite to earn work in that backfield rather than the underdog.
Deep Sleeper – Deon Cain, WR
As I mentioned above, the Colts have a lot of question marks outside of TY Hilton. Cain is an intriguing prospect who comes from the WR factory known as Clemson. His top competition for the Colts #2 WR position is Ryan Grant, Chester Rodgers, and Daurice Fountain which isn’t an intimidating group.
Undervalued – Blake Bortles, QB
Bortles is not a good NFL QB (sorry Jaguars fans). He has however been a top 15 fantasy option each of the past 3 seasons. Bortles might even be available on the waiver wire in some of your leagues but you can get away with pairing him with another streaming option to find solid QB production.
Overvalued – Leonard Fournette, RB
Fournette is an absolute battering ram that makes defenders pay for coming into his path. Unfortunately, this style can also lead to Fournette’s body taking a pounding and he has a history of ankle injuries even at a young age. I usually don’t worry too much about the “injury prone” label but Fournette is playing a violent game in a violent way. Add to that his mediocre receiving skills and the fact that defenses stack the box against him and his name likely carries more value in your league than it should.
Deep Sleeper – Corey Grant, RB
Grant has been rarely used in his brief career so far, but he has been very effective when used with a 6.1 yards per carry rate in his career. Obviously, Grant is just a backup, but Leonard Fournette has dealt with injuries several times in the past few years. If he goes down again, Grant could be an effective fill in option.
Undervalued – Rishard Mathews, WR
Mathews has been a solid but unspectacular receiver for the Titans. Corey Davis profiles as the top guy on the outside next season but Mathews should still see enough targets to be productive as a flex option. Despite this, Mathews seems to be completely overlooked in most dynasty leagues. He’s the type of depth option I like to try to cheaply acquire before the season if I’m in need of WR help on a contender.
Overvalued – Derrick Henry, RB
I wrote a much more detailed post about Henry last month if you’re interested in a deeper look at my thoughts on the Titans backfield. Henry clearly has some talent and should get plenty of carries, but too many people are dismissing Dion Lewis as simply a change of pace back. Dion Lewis is really good and should cut into Henry’s playing time.
Deep Sleeper – Jonnu Smith, TE
Smith is somebody I’ve been a big fan of for a while. Delanie Walker is getting older, the Titans should be transitioning to a more effective pass heavier offense, and Smith flashed a lot of potential last season in limited opportunities. If you’re looking for a young tight end, I prefer Smith to any of the rookie tight ends in this years class.