NBA DFS Core Plays for Draftkings 3/13

We’ve got a very healthy slate on tap for Tuesday night. There will probably be a lot of value available, so keep an eye on news throughout the day. I’m writing this Monday night, so there is a chance things can change throughout the day. As always, I’ll answer questions and provide updates on twitter. There are a lot of good spots on this slate, but there are two games in particular that I will be focusing on. Today’s article is going to be a bit different, as I’m going to discuss those spots and highlight my favorite plays from those games.

Oklahoma City Thunder

The Thunder are on a back to back, and on the road. I’m not too worried though, as this game is against the Hawks. It’s the perfect situation where the Thunder could fail to put away the Hawks early. With the Hawks in tank mode and the Thunder looking to start putting things together down the stretch, this should be a blowout. But looking back through the Thunder’s back to backs, it’s been a very long time since they have won by double digits on a back to back. In fact, they’ve been blown out a handful of times in this situation.

Regardless, Russell Westbrook should have a massive game here. Over his last six games against the Hawks, he has averaged just over 67 Draftkings points per game, with a low of 53.5 and three games over 73.25. Unless a lot changes throughout the day, I will be starting my lineups with WB.

There are two other plays I’m focusing on here for value and value alone. The first is Corey Brewer. Don’t look now, but Brewer is relevant again. The Thunder are 3-0 with him in the starting lineup and he is seeing right around 30 minutes per. He’s a solid 6X candidate, with upside for more. He went over 7X on Monday night. In this matchup, he should be able to find his way to value rather easily. The second potential value play is Patrick Patterson. Patterson could draw the start for Steven Adams, who left his second consecutive game due to injury on Monday night. I fully expect the Thunder to give him the night off and let him heal up. If Patterson is in the starting lineup, I’ll have interest in him at just $3,300.

Los Angeles Lakers vs. Denver Nuggets

This game has all of the fantasy goodness. My goal on this slate is to lock in Westbrook along with a little value, and then stack 4-6 pieces from this game. The total has opened at 231 with Denver as a two point favorite. These two teams just played each other four days ago and Denver won that one, 125-116. This should have a similar amount of scoring. Let’s start with the Lakers.

Luke Walton has finally tightened up his rotation and we’re getting some solid minutes out of guys. There are six guys on the Lakers that are playable, but my interest starts with the guys who are locked into heavy minutes. Kentavious Caldwell-Pope has played 38 or more minutes in each of the Lakers last six games that were decided by 10 points are less. As this game will likely remain close, we can expect at least 38 minutes. He has averaged 0.83 DK points per minutes on the season, and should have a great chance of reaching 6X with upside for much more.

Kyle Kuzma has struggled a bit lately, but one thing he has going for him is his minutes. He’s been right at 38+ minutes in each of his last four. His usage has suffered a little bit in the starting five, but he’s nearly a point per minute fantasy producer, so he’s almost a no-brainer at $6,400 in this matchup. The other piece I’m considering for the Lakers is Brook Lopez. Lopez has been on a tear recently, that has coincided with his increase in minutes due to the narrow rotation. He’s topped 33 DK points in each of his last four games, while scoring 43.75 (against Denver) and 44.5 in his last two. His price has jumped up to $5,800, but with what he’s been doing lately, he’s a very respectable play to add to your game stack.

Lonzo Ball is never a bad play, and he will be up for this game, due to reasons I’ll mention below. If his shot happens to be falling, look out. He could go for 50+ in a triple double. The problem is that he’s in the middle of a cold spell lately, shooting just 2-14 from three over his last two games, and 6-27 in his last three. He has also shot worse at home, shooting roughly 10 percentage points worse across the board (field goal, three-point, and free throw). Despite the poor shooting, he still scored 45.5 DK points the other day against the Nuggets. It would surprise no one if he ended up with the most fantasy points on the Lakers and was the highest point/$ producer as well.

Now let’s talk a bit about the Nuggets.

The first play I’m looking at is Jamal Murray. Murray caused some controversy at the end of that last matchup with the Lakers, which led to him getting a mouthful from Walton. The Lakers feel Murray disrespected them with some of his late game antics. One thing he most definitely disrespected them with was his play. He had a monster game, scoring 46.75 DK points in 35 minutes. I expect the Lakers to really go at Murray, but I think he’ll respond well in a game he’s already going to be very hyped to play. Murray hasn’t performed near as well on the road this season (6 DK points less per game than at home), so if I end up off of him, that will likely have a lot to do with it.

The next play I really like is Gary Harris. Harris is another guy who will play massive minutes. In close games, he is also around 38 minutes or so, which makes him an excellent play in this one. As you can see, I prefer the guards on Denver. That doesn’t mean I think Nikola Jokic is a bad play though. He’s got 60 point upside each and every night and it wouldn’t surprise me to see him reach that ceiling in this game. Will Barton is another playable piece, but he has been in and out of the starting lineup. I would prefer to know he’s starting before playing him, as his minutes have been more secure when starting.

*****

That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.

 

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Eric S

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Eric has played fantasy football for nearly 20 years now and is primarily a GPP player in DFS. He estimates he enters lineups in football, basketball, baseball, golf, MMA, and Nascar contests roughly 350 days a year. As primarily a DFS tournament player, Eric is currently ranked inside the top 2% in Rotogrinders Tournament Player of the Year rankings. His favorite teams include the Detroit Lions, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the Atlanta Braves.

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