It’s Friiiiddaaay!!! My favorite night of the week and most profitable day for me in NBA DFS on a consistent basis. I have a gut feeling that this is going to be a very good slate and I’m fulling planning on staying up late tonight to sweat out a big GPP win. Hopefully with the plays below I’ll see you at the top. Let’s jump right into my plays.
PG: Russell Westbrook – Oklahoma City Thunder
I am a Thunder homer, but I always try to be honest with my opinions and observations in regard to the team. My gut is telling me that we’re about to see a solid stretch of basketball down the stretch. I wouldn’t be surprised to see something like a 10 game win streak to propel them into the three seed in the West. Of course that all starts with Westbrook. I shouldn’t have to give you reasons to play him against the Suns. The only issue here is the possible blowout, but since the game is in Phoenix, there’s a better chance that it stays close. Plus, the Thunder don’t really blow anyone out. The last time the Thunder did put anyone away early was the Warriors early February and Westbrook still played 36 minutes. Lock him in and enjoy the ride. There’s plenty of value on this slate to make it work.
PG/SG: Emmanuel Mudiay & Trey Burke – New York Knicks
Over the past few games, you may have been contemplating the same thing as me: which of these two guys to play. Well, we’ve been doing it all wrong. The correct answer has been play both of them. They have absolutely destroyed together and your lineups would have been well ahead of the pack if you had both over the last three games, since Burke started playing solid minutes. Let’s take a look at their combined output over those three games, with the most recent on top:
- 56 minutes – 70.75 Draftkings points
- 51 minutes – 69 DK points
- 53 minutes – 65 DK points
As you can see, they would have returned big value in that stretch. The good news is I don’t think we have missed the boat. There is still time. Together, they cost $10,400. There’s still 6-7X value at that price. I don’t know about you, but if given the option to roster a player for $10,400 that was going to play low 50’s in minutes and had averaged 1.28 DK points per minute over his last three games, he would be a 100% lock in our lineups. That’s exactly what we’re getting with these two. Is their upside limited a little by rostering both? Sure, a little. If one goes for 45 and the other goes for 20, we would have been better off just rostering the one who scored 45. But there’s not telling who that might be, so let’s just lock in the safety and upside of both together and enjoy the ride. Our ultimate goal is 6-7x across our entire team to do well in tourney’s, and together, they can help us achieve that. Hopefully I’ve said enough to convince you, but if not, just remember these guys are playing the Clippers. The Clips are bleeding fantasy points to opposing guards, allowing the second most DK points per game over the last week.
SG/SF: Devin Booker – Phoenix Suns
Small forward has been easy lately on slates that Booker is playing. He is on a tear right now and the Oklahoma City defense is nothing to be worried about. In fact, they’ve been downright bad since Andre Roberson went down. Booker has averaged 55 DK points over his last three games, but he is still only $8,400. He hasn’t scored fewer than 48.5 DK points in that span and he’s taking nearly 30 shots a game as well. He’s the perfect stack partner with Westbrook, in what is likely to be the highest scoring game of the night. If this game somehow goes to overtime, you could get 140 fantasy points from them combined.
For what it’s worth, I also like including Josh Jackson in the stack if T.J. Warren is out again.
SF/PF: Jabari Parker – Milwaukee Bucks
Now we’re going to need some more value. Parker has been looking really good fantasy wise since his minutes have started coming up following his return from a lengthy injury recovery. Box score watchers are going to see the 10 DK points in his last game and overlook him. However, that was on the second night of a back to back, his first B2B since returning. The night before though, he scored 27.75 DK points and saw his minutes creep up to a season high 27. While he’s coming off of the bench, he actually came back to close out the half and end of the game, which is a great sign. He’s still priced fairly for us to realize his upside, which should be around mid-30’s. We only need 28 to get 6X out of him.
PF/C: Montrezl Harrell – Los Angeles Clippers
I’m keeping my fingers crossed that somehow, some way, the masses don’t end up on Harrell tonight. He is positioned to have a massive game at just $4,700. He’s earned himself solid playing time, topping 25 minutes in each of the last two. Harrell has been one of my favorite players to watch this year, even though he cost me roughly $4,000 earlier this year by beating me in a GPP with a big 2nd half. I’m not bitter though… Anyways, Harrell has is a fantasy point producer when given the opportunity. Against the Knicks, he’s got massive upside. In their last game, he started the second half ahead of Wesley Johnson, whose career was ended by James Harden. (I’m kidding, I think. Look up the crossover if you haven’t seen it.) Harrell played 20 minutes in the second half alone. If he somehow starts, he could play 32-35 minutes. Either way, just play him opposite of Burke and Mudiay and enjoy the late night hammer.
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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