Just five days left until Christmas! NBA DFS has been really good lately on these bigger slates. I think the reason for that is playing the obvious plays and putting together the best possible lineup, no matter the roster construction. Take your lineup where the process takes you. What I mean by that is, just make sure you are solid at every spot.
So many players get stuck on needing to roster the high priced stud(s), but they have one or two roster spots that are landmines. Some nights that strategy is fine, when there are obvious near minimum priced plays who might play 25-30 minutes. Other nights, there is no value, so a balanced lineup makes more sense. Just make sure you have upside at every position. Don’t get locked into trying to make your roster look a certain way every night.
The perfect strategy is dictated by the slate, so it changes from day to day. With that said, this is definitely a balanced slate, as there are only six guys on the entire slate above $9,000, and only one above $10,000.
PG/SG: Josh Hart – Los Angeles Lakers
Let’s go ahead and get the chalk play of the night out of the way. If you haven’t heard, Kentavious Caldwell-Pope can’t leave the state of California right now due to a “legal issue”, so Josh Hart will likely take his place and play 30+ minutes. He is the bare minimum on Draftkings, so it’s really hard to fade him. Hart started for KCP two games ago and played 33 minutes scoring 32 DK points. With over 10X upside, just take the free square.
PG/SG: Lou Williams – Los Angeles Clippers
Williams has seemed a little worn out lately from carrying such a scoring burden due to so many injuries to the Clippers. He sat out the Clippers last game due to a right foot sprain, but it seems to be more for maintenance than for any type of serious injury. In all honesty, he probably needed the break and I expect him to come back strong in this game against the Suns. He’ll come into this game with four days rest. We know targeting the Suns is a winning strategy, and especially with a guy with as much upside as Williams. Earlier this season, Williams scored 31.25 DK points in just over 24 minutes against the Suns. He should play 36 minutes in this game, and there’s a good chance he could reach 50 DK points in this one.
C: Julius Randle – Los Angeles Lakers
Randle is likely in line for a minutes boost with Brook Lopez out for an extended period of time. Here’s a bold prediction for you. Randle will be a $7,500 player by the time Lopez returns. He’s a high upside fantasy player, but has been handcuffed by his off the bench role and limited minutes (22.5/gm on the season). In those 22.5 minutes per game, he’s averaging 1.11 fantasy points per minute. You’ll want to take advantage of his $5,400 price tag while you can, because he has 40+ point upside at that price.
PG/SG: Kris Dunn – Chicago Bulls
Dunn has finally crossed the $7k price threshold and I think that will keep a lot of people off of him. He’s been exceptional and definitely deserves this price. He has an excellent matchup tonight against the Magic, who are regularly a source of fantasy goodness for opposing point guards. The Magic have allowed the second most DK points to opposing point guards on the season and the most over the last four weeks. Dunn fits the profile perfectly of that mid-priced guy who can score in that 40-50 range.
SG/SF: Rodney Hood – Utah Jazz
This play hinges on the health of Donavan Mitchell, who is questionable to play. You might be surprised to hear this, but when Hood and Mitchell are on the floor together, it’s Hood who has the higher usage percentage (28 % to 25%) and fantasy points per minute (0.93 to 0.80). With Mitchell off of the floor, Hood’s usage bumps up to over 29%. The issue with Hood is that he hasn’t been healthy this year, so Mitchell has been able to shine. I think you can count on a solid game out of Hood if Mitchell is out.
C: Nikola Vucevic – Orlando Magic
Can you believe that Vucevic costs $9,400? That name next to that price just doesn’t look right. I’m hoping that’s the thought process of most DFS players on this slate. Vuc has topped 50 in six of his last eight games (his two “down” games were 46 and 34.5). Out of those six, he’s topped 60 four times. His fantasy production this year without Aaron Gordon and Evan Fournier on the court is unreal, at 1.67 DK points per minute. He’s averaged 34 minutes per game his last ten games, and if the game is close, I would expect him to top that number. He’ll be the highest priced guy in my lineup on Wednesday.
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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