It’s FRIDAY! My favorite day of the week and my favorite NBA DFS day of the week. Not a lot of time today, but I have some plays I really like, so I wanted to get them up for you, so we can have a profitable DFS night. Let’s get right into it.
PG/SG: Lou Williams – Los Angeles Clippers
Sweet Lou may play 45 minutes in this game. The Clippers back court is in shambles. Austin Rivers is now out and Milos Teodosic, who was one of my favorite plays today, will sit out Friday night in the first leg of a back to back. Therefore, Williams will have to do it all, as there is literally only three guys in my opinion that can share the PG/SG minutes with Williams: Sindarius Thornwell, Jawun Evans, and C.J. Williams. This is an absolute dream spot to play Williams. Even in a blowout, he’ll still likely play quite a few minutes.
C: Deandre Jordan – Los Angeles Clippers
So I’m recommending a lot of Clippers tonight, but they are very thin and will likely have to play heavy minutes. Jordan has 47 or more DK points in three of his last four games. The one game he didn’t was against these Wizards. I’m not going to let that bother me, because his usage should go up without Rivers on the floor. With Rivers on the floor this season (w/out Blake Griffin, Teodosic, and Danilo Gallinari), Jordan has averaged a 17% usage rate and 1.28 DK points per minute. Without Rivers (and w/out the other mentioned), Jordan has seen a 20% usage rate and 1.56 DK points per minute.
I will note, that if you are someone who is scared of blowouts, you may want to leave the Clippers alone. If this game blows out, then these guys could underperform a bit. However, if it stays close, it’s because these two guys probably had massive games and will pay off their mid-$7,000 salaries.
PG: Jawun Evans – Los Angeles Clippers
Evans is worthy of a mention as a punt tonight. He’s min-priced, and I don’t really see a path where he doesn’t play 25 minutes. He’ll also be blowout proof. With the same guys off the floor as above, he’s averaged 0.84 DK points per minute. That should get you around 7X with upside for more.
SG: Bradley Beal – Washington Wizards
If we’re playing two or three guys from the Clippers, we probably need to come back with someone from the other side. Beal has seen his price come back down and this is an excellent matchup for him. With John Wall back, Beal should be able to find more open shots. The Clippers have been exceptionally giving to opposing shooting guards, and this could end up being a 50 burger from Beal if the game stays close and he gets hot.
SG: Gary Harris – Denver Nuggets
Okay, now let’s move on for all of you who are not interested in playing guys from the Wizards/Clippers. Harris is in an excellent spot against the Pelicans, who he put up 38.75 DK points against them just a few games back. With Will Barton looking very questionable, Harris would become a lock if he sits. One of the most profitable strategies early in the season of NBA DFS has been to stack Pelicans games if they are going to be close. It’s even better when we know guys on the opposite team are going to see heavy minutes, like Harris should. The Pelicans are very generous to opposing guards.
C: Jonas Valanciunas – Toronto Raptors
Will the real Valanciunas please stand up? Well, I guess we know who the guy is, it just comes down to whether or not he can get the minutes. In his last two games, he saw 30 and 28 minutes and scored 37.25 and 43.75 DK points, respectively. In this matchup against the Nets, he could have a monster game. At just $4,900, I’m strongly considering him, because even if he sees his normal 20ish minutes, he could still score 6X his salary.
The last two games were against traditional big men, so he was relied on more. In this game, the Raptors may not need him as much. If you end up rostering him, just hold your breath after you see him come out with 18 DK points in the first quarter. He starts hot quite often, but doesn’t get enough playing time the rest of the game to really have a big game. Again though, he’s priced appropriately for us to take a shot on him tonight.
SF/PF: Al-Farouq Aminu – Portland Trailblazers
Aminu is in a good spot tonight against the Magic. His minutes are approaching mid to high 30’s and if they stay there, he has a lot of upside at just $4,900. After letting everyone down two games ago, he rebounded nicely (pun intended, 13 rbs) last game with 34.25 DK points. This is a pace up game against a bad defensive team. Seems like the perfect spot for him to put up a repeat performance and give you a little upside on his sub $5k salary.
PG/SG: Chris Paul – Houston Rockets
Now for my stud of the night. Paul versus the Spurs isn’t something that jumps off of the paper, but we can’t ignore his price and the way he’s been playing. In his last four games, he’s scored no fewer than 43.25 DK points and his high was in his last game at 62.75. Paul has had no issues putting up big games against the Spurs over the years and there’s no reason to think they have anyone that will be able to slow him down in this one. The Spurs have been around the middle of the pack in most metrics as far fantasy points allowed to opposing point guards. His price is coming up, but I think tonight’s the last chance we have to jump on before it climbs above $9,000 for good.
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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