We’ve got a healthy 10 game slate for Wednesday and I think there are some great plays available to us. Before we jump into them, I want to go over something I learned last week and how you can benefit from it when making lineups.
One goal I’ve set for myself this year is to try and win the NBA Mid Range Jumper on DraftKings. It is a $40 single entry tournament and typically has around 1000 people in it, give or take. This past Friday, I came up with a lineup that I really liked. There was just one problem. I still had $1,000 of salary left over. I spent the last half hour or so before lock trying to spend that extra $1,000. Surely I could upgrade one of my plays somewhere. With lineup lock 60 second and counting, I decided that I was going to leave it. This was probably the first time in my DFS career that I’ve left $1,000+ plus on the table in a single entry type contest.
That decision ended up being very profitable. I nearly achieved my goal. If Donavan Mitchell doesn’t score 29 real points in the second half, 17 of those in the fourth (I didn’t roster him), I likely pull it off. I ended up finishing 4th and between two contests and $48 worth of entry fees that night, I won $900. Not the $5,000 I nearly won for first place, but I’m still not going to complain.
My point in bringing that up is to encourage you to find a lineup you like, regardless of price. If there’s an obvious upgrade at a position, use that money. If there is not, just leave the money on the table. Had I forced a change in my lineup just for the sake of using the money, my pockets would likely be several hundred dollars lighter right now. So many times, DFS players, including myself, become conditioned to create a lineup around the salary cap, rather than plugging in the best plays and seeing where that leaves us. Just keep this in mind the rest of the season.
PG/SG: Jrue Holiday & PG: Rajon Rondo – New Orleans Pelicans
Since Anthony Davis went down to injury (the most recent time), Holiday and Rondo have both stepped up. I want to play both of these guys in a face paced game against the Nuggets. Holiday has met 6X value on his current price in four of his last five games, including 50 DraftKings points in his last outing.
Rondo on the other hand has finally hit his stride, producing in all categories. He’s a higher per minute fantasy point contributor with Davis off of the floor. He has plenty of chemistry with Demarcus Cousins and that’s been showing in his fantasy box score over the past three games. In those three games, he topped 10 assists in each and averaged just over 39 DK points per game. At $5,500, there’s plenty of upside there.
If you pair these guys, you’re looking at a cost of $12,100. For that price, you’ll likely get 70 combined minutes of playing time from two guys who are both right around a fantasy point per minute. Over the last four weeks, the Nuggets have allowed the third most fantasy points per game to opposing point guards.
PF/C: Demarcus Cousins – New Orleans Pelicans
Speaking of Cousins, wow is he a beast. Without Davis on the floor, he is averaging a 38% usage rate and 1.6 DK points per minute. His floor is exceptional and well, his ceiling is nearly limitless. With Nikola Jokic out due to injury, the Nuggets don’t have anyone with the size to slow Cousins down. Mason Plumlee will be tasked with guarding him, and he is no match for Cousins. Plumlee should only play 20-25 minutes, so that leaves guys like Trey Lyles and Kenneth Faried trying to guard him. You get the point. There’s no one on this team to slow him down and this should be one of his massive games.
PG/SG: Lou Williams – Los Angeles Clippers
Williams is the heart of this Clippers team right now and his price is just too cheap at $7,100 for the type of volume he sees. He has 50+ point upside and in my opinion he’s the one guy in this price range most likely to have that ceiling type game. He just faced this Timberwolves team and put up 45.25 DK points in 35 minutes. If this game stays close, he should see 35-40 minutes and over his last five games, he’s averaged 1.14 DK points per minute.
SG: Jimmy Butler – Minnesota Timberwolves
I’ve been riding the Jimmy Butler wave and it’s been paying dividends. Over his last three games, he’s averaged just over 40 minutes per game and has scored no fewer than 45.25 DK points. He’s still mispriced, as he should be a $8,000+ player. Until his price reaches that range where the upside is priced out, I’m going to keep locking him in. On top of the price issue, he has an excellent matchup against the Clippers. They have allowed the most fantasy points to shooting guards on the season. Just take the gift that DraftKings has given us here and play Butler.
PF/C: Kevin Love – Cleveland Cavaliers
There are some scenarios where I could see myself not being able to afford Cousins on this slate. In that case, I’ll absolutely have Kevin Love. I could even pair them together. The blowout risk is there, but Love could have one of his blow up games in this matchup, where he hits something like seven threes in the first half. In his last game, he played under 23 minutes and still scored over 45 fantasy points. Over his last six games, he’s shooting 46% from deep. With Willy Cauley-Stein out, Zach Randolph will be left manning the center position. Randolph is also a very solid play on this slate. But do you think he can cover Love on the perimeter? The answer is no. Love has had some monster games against Z-Bo in the past. Over his last seven games against Randolph, Love has averaged 48.9 DK points per.
SF: Michael Kidd-Gilchrist – Charlotte Hornets
Kidd-Gilchrist is starting to come on, with consecutive 25+ DK games. I love targeting MKG when he is facing Lebron James, and the reasoning for that translates perfectly his opponent on Wednesday, the Golden State Warriors. MKG will be tasked with guarding Kevin Durant in this one and will likely see a few extra minutes because of that. I wouldn’t be surprised if we look at the box score after the game and see 35 minutes from him. At $4,200, that’s a lot of minutes. He’ll likely be locked in my small forward slot as a salary saver play.
SG/SF: Will Barton – Denver Nuggets
The more and more I research this slate, the more and more I realize how much I love this game. It looks like I’ll end up with a game stack. Since Jokic went down, the Nuggets are leaning on Barton for offense. He’s put up 46 and 51.5 DK points in two of his last three games. If Barton gets rolling, he can be left out there for 38-40 minutes. He has shot 46% from three-point range on the road this season, which is six percentage points higher than at home. That bodes well for his chances to get hot in this one. I don’t see any reason to believe that the Pelicans will be able to stop him.
E’twaun Moore – New Orleans Pelicans
Okay, one last play from this game. This one is for salary purposes. Moore has seen an uptick in minutes since Davis was injured, and he’s produced with that extra opportunity. He’s averaged just over 36 minutes per game over the last three and 30.8 DK points. At just $4,200, I think this is our last chance to get him at a big discount. Similarly to MKG, it’s hard to find this many minutes for this price, so we need to take advantage of that while we can.
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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