I hope everyone had a great Thanksgiving holiday and maybe even scored some deals on Black Friday (which is now basically Black Thursday night). You may notice thing are a bit different this week, as we’ll be outlining plays for both DraftKings and FanDuel in this one article. Things are changing a bit, but we’ll get them figured out over the next week or so. Because I’m doing one write-up for both sites, I’ll make a note if a particular play is specific to one site.
I’m going to run through each position and mention the players that I like most. Due to the holidays and all the time I spent with family, eating, and holding my wife’s purse in the Black Friday lines, the analysis probably won’t be as long this week. Rest assured though, the research behind the plays is the same as every other week. With that said, let’s jump right in.
Russell Wilson – Seattle Seahawks
Wilson is my favorite QB on both sites. He is this entire Seahawks team right now. He should have his way in this one, facing a 49ers defense that is allowing the fourth most fantasy points to opposing QB’s on the season. Don’t overthink it.
Marcus Mariota – Tennessee Titans
I scooped up Mariota off the waiver wire in one of my leagues, because he has a very generous upcoming schedule and should be fantasy relevant through the next four weeks. While healthy this season, he’s been very consistent, but hasn’t flashed a ton of upside. Last week was a struggle, throwing four interceptions against the Steelers. I think he’ll bounce back against the Colts.
Paxton Lynch – Denver Broncos
The Broncos are on to their third starter this season, and you can play him on DRAFTKINGS for only $4,400. I don’t personally remember there every being a playable QB that cheap. No one really knows what to expect here, but at that price, you really don’t need much. If he somehow ends up going for 20 points, you’re going to probably end up with a very profitable day.
The matchup is there. The Raiders have given up the 11th most fantasy points to opposing quarterbacks on the season, and over the past four weeks they’ve allowed the second most. Oh yeah, they also don’t have an interception on the season. It’s going to be tough to pull the trigger if playing just one lineup on DraftKings, but I may just do it.
I’ll likely be paying up for both running back spots this weekend because of lack of value options and a plethora of value wide receivers. If you can get to LeVeon Bell on FanDuel, go for it. I’m not writing him up, but he’s the best play at the position. I just think there are viable guys $1,000+ cheaper.
Kareem Hunt – Kansas City Chiefs
Okay, I’m going back to Hunt one more time. This has to be the week that he gets off the schneid. The Bills have been absolutely atrocious against the run over the past four weeks. Trading Marcell Dareus continues to haunt them. Go look at the stats if you have a second. The Bills went from a top rush defense to the bottom. The Jags, who acquired Dareus, went from dead last, to the best. It’s insane.
Anyways, over the past four weeks, the Bills have given up 166 rushing yards per game and 2.5 touchdowns. They’ve also allowed opposing running backs 6.25 catches per game for 43.75 yards. There is no reason Hunt shouldn’t have his way here. Just play him.
Mark Ingram/Alvin Kamara – New Orleans Saints
Play one, play them both. Just don’t play neither. In all seriousness, what this run game has done for the Saints has been unprecedented. These guys are the top two fantasy running backs of the last half of the season. The Rams are giving up the fourth most rushing yards per game to opposing backs and the fourth most fantasy points. Since these guys are both so similarly priced, I would reserve Ingram for FanDuel and Kamara for DraftKings. Unless you’re playing them both in the same lineup, which I was serious about when I said you can.
Tevin Coleman – Atlanta Falcons
This is a FanDuel play for me. If Freeman is ruled out again, which if I had to guess today, I would say he will be, then Coleman is slotted into a full workhorse back role at just $6,200.
The same thing goes for Antonio Brown on FanDuel. He’s the obvious play if you can afford him. He’s just over $1,000 more than the next highest priced guy, so I’ll probably save the money.
Doug Baldwin – Seattle Seahawks
Baldwin will be the player I pair with Wilson. He gets a match-up that I target almost every week, lining up against K’Waun Williams. This is the second best match-up of the week according to Pro Football Focus, as Williams is ranked 114 out of 118 eligible corners. I think Baldwin is going to feast and you can get away with him being your highest priced WR on this slate.
Jarvis Landry/Kenny Stills – Miami Dolphins
Let’s start with Landry. I expect the Dolphins to be trailing big this week for the better part of the game. That favors a pass heavy script. Landry has seen 10+ targets in all but two games, and he’s catching touchdowns this year. He has six in his last seven games. He gets what is probably his best match-up of the year this week against Eric Rowe. This is the top overall match-up on PFF.
Rowe hasn’t played enough snaps to qualify for the PFF rating rankings system yet, but based on his current rating, he would be second to last among all corners. Landry has a solid floor and is an outstanding full point PPR play on DraftKings.
Stills is in play for me, only if Matt Moore is the starting QB this week. Moore loves targeting Stills and that goes back six or seven games that Moore started to last season. I don’t know what it is, but they have excellent rapport, and we saw that last week after Moore took over. Stills ended up with 180 yards on seven catches and a touchdown. If Cutler is ruled out, get your exposure to Stills.
Demaryius Thomas – Denver Broncos
Thomas broke his scoreless streak in a big way, finding the end zone in each of the past three weeks. That era is over now, as Brock Osweiler is no longer the starting QB and the Paxton Lynch era is beginning. I will make it a priority to roster Thomas on DraftKings.
He’s cheap enough to create a very high upside stack with Lynch, at a very cheap price. Together, they only cost $9,600. That’s in the same price range as Bell or Brown. Emmanuel Sanders might not play in this one, which would make Thomas the main focus of the offense.
Rishard Matthews – Tennesee Titans
Matthews is one of my favorite wide receivers on both sites. He’s coming into his own as a top wide receiver, but he’s still priced as a value. He’s had double-digit DK points in six of his ten games, with two games over 20 points. If Jay Cutler plays, I would probably pivot my Stills shares to Matthews.
Brandin Cooks – New England Patriots
If Chris Hogan is out again, just hit the lock button on Cooks. He has seen 20 targets over the past two weeks with Hogan out, and exploded for 29.9 DK points last week. This Miami defense is atrocious. It might be the worst in the league. They’ve given up 30, 45, 27, and 40 points in their last four games, respectively. None of those offenses were close to the Patriots.
Jared Cook – Oakland Raiders
Cook is playing Denver. That means he has a great match-up. He’s getting plenty of targets and he’s had some big yardage totals. He’s probably a better play on DraftKings, because he doesn’t get in the end zone. If he somehow breaks that scoreless streak this week, he could be the highest scoring TE on the slate.
Tyler Kroft – Cincinatti Bengals
Kroft will be hard for me to roster, but he destroyed the Browns earlier in the year. That’s just what tight ends do, destroy the Browns. I think the Bengals will continue to make it a point to exploit that matchup in this game. I wish Kroft was a bit cheaper on each site as a true punt. On FanDuel, I just don’t think I can pull the trigger over Cook for $200 more, but he’ll definitely make my short list on DraftKings.
Jimmy Graham – Seattle Seahawks
If I end up paying up for tight end I think it will be for Graham. He’s getting a healthy amount of targets and remains heavily used in the red zone. I’m high on Wilson, so why wouldn’t I be high on his top pass catcher? Graham has seven touchdowns over his last six games.
From a macro view, it appears that the 49ers have been solid against tight ends, giving up the eighth fewest fantasy points to the position. When we dig in to those numbers, we see that they were great the first five games, but have struggled since then. In their first five, they allowed fewer than 20 total fantasy points to tight ends. Since then they’ve allowed double-digit points each week and touchdowns in four straight games.
The difference in the two halves of the season is because Jaquiski Tart was arguably the best in the league at covering tight ends and he is nos injured. Graham is in a really good spot and I don’t think he’ll be very highly owned.
How can you not like the Jags? This defense continues to impress, and I don’t see that stopping anytime soon. As mentioned above, the Jags run defense is now among the best in the league and that makes them very scary. To start the year, they were a run funnel, but now it’s hard to move the ball regardless of what you do. They sack the quarterback, create turnovers, and score touchdowns. I don’t think you have to be scared off of them facing Blaine Gabbert.
Any team facing the Browns is in play. The Bengals have been sacking the quarterback and creating turnovers, with seven sacks and four turnovers forced the past two weeks. If they can pressure Deshone Kizer, they should be able to force him into a couple of interceptions. Let’s just hope a turnover turns into a defensive touchdown.
On FanDuel, the Steelers might be the play. This also allows you to get some skin in the Sunday night game if you’re not able to afford the Steelers playmakers. The Packers offense has been really bad with Brett Hundley at the helm and going into Pittsburgh isn’t going to make it any better. I think the Steelers will play a really solid defensive game in the primetime matchup. They forced Marcus Mariota into four interceptions last week, and Hundley isn’t on the same level as Mariota. Hundley is coming off of a three interception, one fumble game himself. This is just an excellent spot all around for the Steelers. If you can make a Bell/Steelers DST pairing work, I think it’s a perfect correlation play.
That’s it for this week. Because of new information and a better gauge of ownership, I may add updates here through the weekend, so be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you don’t miss any additional recommendations.
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