Welcome to the Biggest Drinking Night of the Year. That is real, look it up if you don’t believe me. Anyways, we have a HUGE slate tonight, with 14 games. My plan to attack this slate is probably going to be a single entry into smaller tournaments. I’m going to lay out my core plays below. Unless something major changes before lock, I’ll probably find each of these guys in that lineup. Best of luck tonight and don’t drink and drive.
PG/SG: Spencer Dinwiddie – Brooklyn Nets
I’ve been regularly targeting Dinwiddie, and I don’t plan on stopping until DeAngelo Russell returns or his price gets to an uncomfortable level. In his last three (three starts since Russell got injured), Dinwiddie has played against arguably the two best teams in the NBA (Warriors and Celtics), and the best defensive team in the NBA over the past few years (Jazz). Although the Jazz aren’t what they were without Rudy Gobert, they’re still competent on defense. Those three teams are currently in the top five of allowing the fewest fantasy points to opposing point guards. That is telling. In those three games, Dinwiddie has averaged 41.9 Draftkings points. Now he faces one of the worst defensive teams in the league, the Cavaliers. His price is on the rise, but I still want a share of him in this matchup. I think his floor is 5-6X, with upside for more.
PF/C: John Collins – Atlanta Hawks
Collins might be the best play on the slate. He’s just $4,600 and his minutes have finally started creeping up, where he played 36 minutes last time out. I don’t think we’ll see that again, but 25-30 is beyond reasonable. Collins is one of the bright spots on this team and this is an excellent spot against the Clippers, who are in shambles right now. Collins is over a point per minute fantasy player and I think it’s reasonable that he could cross the 30 DK point threshold, which would be excellent at this price tag.
PG: Dennis Schroeder – Atlanta Hawks
Let’s throw in another Hawk. Schroeder is just too cheap and also has a great matchup here. Again, the Clippers are struggling. They’ve allowed 111 points per game over their last nine, and I don’t see any relief in store. I would have faded Schroeder if Beverly was in, but he will be out. After returning for one game, his knee just isn’t right. That leaves no one that can realistically guard Schroeder. This should be a ceiling game for him, and I expect 40+ in this matchup.
SG/SF: Allen Crabbe – Brooklyn Nets
Let’s stay on theme with pairing teammates. I love targeting players against the Cavs, and I think Crabbe will be a bit sneaky in this spot, on such a large slate. The Nets paid Crabbe big time in the offseason, so they’d be crazy to not at least try to get their money’s worth. Crabbe has topped 30 minutes in each of his last five games. Prior to that, he had not topped 30 minutes in any of the first 11 games. That has paid off in terms of fantasy, as he has scored 29.25, 30.25, and 38.25 DK points in his last three. Those were in the same three “tough” matchups, as outlined above with Dinwiddie. At just $4,600, Crabbe brings a fairly safe floor, but also has the upside to get to 8X.
PG/SG: Eric Bledsoe – Milwaukee Bucks
You have to play Bledsoe tonight. I don’t care if he’s 100% owned, I will go down with the ship if he busts. He’s returning to Phoenix tonight and I can’t imagine a better revenge narrative this year. Bledsoe has had enough time with the Bucks to find his role and that role is growing. He got up to 35 minutes last game and turned in 35.75 DK points. Two games before that, he scored 43.5 DK points against Detroit. We know that Jason Kidd will ride his guys into the ground minutes wise, and I think he’ll let Bledsoe get a little extra time in each rotation in this one. I won’t be surprised if he plays 38-40 minutes here. At just $6,500, he’s just not priced high enough for me to consider any kind of fade. If you remember Monday, I wrote up Oladipo in a revenge game and he went for over 60 DK points. Take that narrative and double or triple the revenge factor, as there was a lot more turmoil between Bledsoe and the Suns than there was between Oladipo and the Magic.
SG: Jimmy Butler – Minnesota Timberwolves
Butler has finally started to resemble the player we knew in the past with the Bulls. He’s had his four best fantasy outings in his last six games. He should play 38-40 minutes in this game if it stays close. This game should be fairly fast paced and Butler’s still just too cheap for me to overlook him. He should be creeping his way up to $8,000+ soon, so I’m going to lock him in now at this lower price while I still can. The Magic allow the seventh most fantasy points to opposing shooting guards on the season. One of the most telling stats to me is that Orlando allows the most steals of any team to the position. Where we get the big Jimmy Butler games are when he can wrack up four or five steals. Those extra points are what typically help him crush value.
Other plays I like: Marc Gasol, Lebron James, Taurean Prince, Wilson Chandler
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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