Hi again folks. I hope that you all are doing swimmingly well and that you turned a nice profit last week. This week we have a ton of teams on bye, and that means that we can’t play the Patriots or Steelers offense and we can’t play the offense playing against the Browns’ defense. That makes my job a bit trickier, but worry not, I have come up with a bunch of plays I like. Come along for the ride!
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up .on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Drew Brees vs. Bucs ($7,000) – This is a nice price for Brees against the woeful Bucs pass defense. Tampa ranks 30th in pass yards per game allowed and 31st in Football Outsiders always fantastic Defensive Efficiency rating against the pass. Brees has not been his usual dynamic self this season as his team is more focused on winning than stat padding this year. But I think this week Brees will both win and have great numbers.
Bang for Your Buck
Jared Goff @ Giants ($5,500) – I mentioned this a couple of weeks ago but it bears repeating – Jared Goff is a different quarterback when he faces weaker pass defenses. Against pass defenses ranked in the top half in Defensive Efficiency, Goff has not topped 12.06 points. Against pass defense ranked in the bottom half in Defensive Efficiency, Goff has not had less than 18.10 points. Guess which type of defense he faces this week? The Giants are 22nd in Defensive Efficiency and Goff should get over 20 points and more than hit value.
Tom Savage vs. Colts ($4,600) – DeShaun Watson’s injury was devastating news for Texans fans and fantasy players. But since it was a mid-week injury, we can take advantage of a gift as the Texans’ new (old) starter, Tom Savage is priced dirt cheap against the abysmal Colts’ pass defense. Indy ranks 31st in pass yards per game allowed and 32nd in pass yards per attempt allowed. Savage is no Watson, but he should be able to slice and dice this terrible Indy D.
Ezekiel Elliott vs. Chiefs ($9,000) – The Chiefs are not a good run defense, ranking 28th in rush yards per game allowed and 29th in rush yards per attempt allowed. But even if they were a pretty good run defense, I would play Zeke in the spot – quite simply because it looked like he was not going to play at all early in the week and some folks may have locked in their rosters already or they might be reading old analysis. Zeke’s ownership will likely be a tick down – take full advantage in GPPs.
Mark Ingram vs. Bucs ($7,600) – Give me all the Saints I can handle this week. I even don’t mind a Brees/Ingram stack given that Ingram has 5+ targets and 4+ catches in 4 straight games. And apart from that, Ingram should be able to run the ball just fine against Tampa’s run defense which is ranked only 20th in Defensive Efficiency. Ingram has at least 19.9 fantasy points in every game since Adrian Peterson was traded. I think he does it again.
Bang for your Buck
Lamar Miller vs. Colts ($6,200) – The Colts allow the 19th most rush yards per game, so Miller should do just fine in this match-up. And despite the fact that I like Savage at his price, I do think that the Texans will try to run the ball a little bit more with Watson’s injury. Miller has 14+ carries in every game this season. I think this will be a big one.
Alex Collins @ Titans ($4,600) – Collins is priced way too low on DraftKings. This is a guy who is ranked 1st in the NFL in yards per carry and is now clearly the Ravens’ feature back. Collins ran for 113 yards last week and even got involved in the passing game with 30 more receiving yards. The Titans’ run defense is pretty good, but this discount is way too good to pass up.
Orleans Darkwa vs. Rams ($3,800) – Once again this is a guy who feels very underpriced. Darkwa has 14+ fantasy points in 2 of his last 3 games and is 2 games removed from a very impressive 117 yard rushing performance against the stellar Broncos run defense. The Rams are 3rd in Defensive Efficiency versus the pass but only 17th versus the run. The Giants will likely have a run heavy game-plan and Darkwa should more than pay his price.
Eddie Lacy vs. Redskins ($3,200) – Lacy has not done much this season, but the Seahawks coaches have stated publicly that Lacy will be the feature back this week. I see no reason to believe that Pete Carroll, who seems like the nicest man alive, is lying to me. At this price, let’s roll with it.
DeAndre Hopkins vs. Colts ($9,200) – The Colts are terrible against the pass ranking an embarrassing 31st in passing yards per game allowed and 32nd in pass yards per attempt allowed. Hopkins may not have his QB, but he will be heavily involved in this game. I think his production will be stellar and maybe we can get discounted ownership because of the Watson injury.
Michael Thomas vs. Bucs ($7,600) – Have I mentioned that the Bucs’ pass defense is not great? Michael Thomas is as steady as they come with 75+ yards receiving in 5 of his last 6 games. This is a nice safe way to start your lineups in cash games and he even has some good GPP upside.
Dez Bryant vs. Chiefs ($6,400) – Does this price seem a little low to anyone? Dez has 8+ targets in 3 of his last 4 games and touchdowns in 2 of his last 3 games. The Chiefs are only 20th in Defensive Efficiency versus the pass. Dez should more than pay off here.
Bang for your Buck
Demaryius Thomas vs. Eagles ($6,000) – While I don’t think Brock Osweiler is much of an upgrade on Trevor Siemian, I do think that he will feed Thomas the ball over and over. Thomas has only failed to reach 8 targets in a game twice this year and I think he will reach double digits this game. This could be a great spot for him.
Devin Funchess vs. Falcons ($5,400) – Funchess was already pretty heavily involved in this offense with 6+ targets every week since week 2. Now, however, he should be force-fed the ball as Kelvin Benjamin was shipped to Buffalo. I expect 12-14 targets for Funchess this week and he looks like a bargain at this price.
TY Hilton @ Houston ($4,900) – This is a GPP play that I would not recommend in cash. But in a short slate, you have the receiver who is ranked 11th in the NFL in receiving yards, despite mediocre QB play. I expect the Colts to throw a lot this game and Hilton will break out one of these weeks.
Robert Woods @ Giants ($4,300) – Woods has been the #1 receiver for the Rams this year. This is a guy that has had 6+ targets every week since week 3 and 5+ catches the last 3 weeks. I expect the Rams to successfully pass the ball this week and Woods should be a big part of that attack. Grab him at this price.
Marqise Goodwin vs. Cardinals ($3,800) – With Pierre Garcon out for the season in San Francisco, Goodwin might be their #1 target. Arizona only ranks 21st in Defensive Efficiency versus the pass. The throws have to go somewhere. I would take a chance on Goodwin in GPPs.
Trent Taylor vs. Cardinals ($3,000) – I could say basically the same thing about Taylor as I said about Goodwin. He should see an increased target share and play many more snaps with Garcon now out. Side note, but Taylor is a Julian Edelman type receiver and I think he makes a nice speculative add in deep season long fantasy leagues. Jimmy Garropolo is going to love throwing to him.
Evan Engram vs. Rams ($5,600) – With OBJ out, Engram is now the #1 target for the Giants, as evidenced by his 12 targets in the Giants last game. I love the $5,600 price tag for a clear-cut #1 receiver. Give me all the Engram.
Bang for your Buck
Jack Doyle @ Texans ($4,300) – Doyle is 11th in the entire NFL in catches. Why is he priced at $4,300? DraftKings is full PPR and Doyle should easily hit double-digit points. This is an easy play in cash with good GPP upside.
Benjamin Watson @ Titans ($2,700) – For near minimum price you get a guy who has had 4+ targets in his last 5 guys and in 6 of his last 7 games. You also get a guy who has hit double-digit points a couple of times and has some upside. You could do a lot worse for this price.
Ravens @ Titans ($2,900) – The Ravens have scored 20+ fantasy points in 2 of their last 3 games and now they face a hobbled Titans offense. Someone explain this price to me.
Bengals @ Jaguars ($2,800) – I am on the Jaguars bandwagon, but their offense is still not great. Bortles will throw the ball to the wrong color a couple of times. The Bengals are a safe play.
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