Yesterday we had mixed results. It was looking very good early as I nailed the Kanter 40+ point game. My $3k cheapie, Kay Felder, went over 7x value, in a game where he should have done even better if the Cavs could have put away the Bulls earlier. The problem was our studs were ‘meh’, just okay. I will note that I pivoted to Felder shortly before lock and posted it on Twitter, so be sure to check for any last-minute updates.
More than any other sport, basketball is the most volatile leading up to lock, so plays could definitely change between the time this article is posted and the time the slate locks.
The title says it all, but the goal here is to give you the core plays I will be building around. Most days, these plays will not be site specific, but if there is a specific play on one of the main sites (DraftKings and FanDuel), then I will make sure to note that.
With that said, due to the nature of the slate today, all plays below will be DraftKings only. I’m liking the roster construction and pricing on DraftkKngs a lot better right now, so I’ll have all my money in play there.
—- UPDATE —
Shabazz Muhammad is minimum priced on Draftkings and he should play 30+ minutes, so you almost have to play him. If you want to go a little off the wall, you could also play Nemanja Bjelica from the same team at just $100 more. In the right spot, he can put up some fantasy points. In what should be 20+ minutes, he has a good shot to post 7X value.
I will be off of Kelly Oubre if Jason Smith is active. We may not know before lock, so I’ll be pivoting to Muhammad and/or Bjelica instead, just to be safe.
PG: John Wall – $10,200
John Wall is an absolute lock tonight against the Lakers. If you haven’t been paying attention, there have been some trash talk ahead of the Wizards matchup with the Lake… Lonzo Ball. Not only is it an excellent matchup, but Wall will be highly motivated to welcome the rookie with the trash talking father to the big leagues. I love the Wizards tonight, as you’ll soon see.
P.S. Wall has scored 56.5 or more DK points in six of his last eight games against the Lakers. Three of those were over 60.
P.S.S. The two games he didn’t score more than 56.5, he had 48 and 48.75.
SG/SF: Kelly Oubre Jr. – $4,200
This price is too low. Oubre Jr. is a lock in my lineups tonight. He’s played 32, 36, and 38 minutes and scored 36.5, 16.25, and 27 DraftKings points, respectively. I think he’s probably somewhere in the middle and we can expect 25 points realistically. Of course with upside for more, but his floor still doesn’t tank our lineup if that happens. But I don’t think this is a floor game for him in a high paced game that opened with the highest total (230) on the board. Don’t overthink this. When DraftKings gives you a price like this, you take it.
SF/PF: Otto Porter – $5,900
Rounding out my Wizards trio is Porter, who is also mispriced and in an excellent spot against the Lakers. Porter is looking like he’ll settle in this year as a mid-$7,000’s type player. His peripherals are amazing! He’s scoring and rebounding well, but his steals and blocks are where it’s at. Through three games he has 11 steals and three blocks. That’s an extra 9+ fantasy points per game so far. What I said above rings true again here. Don’t miss the chance to play a guy that is priced at least $1,000 too low.
SG: Kentavious Caldwell-Pope – $4,700
KCP has a lot of upside at this price. The Lakers previous game was his first of the season and he played just over 30 minutes and scored 30 fantasy points. He thrives in the fast pace, up and down type games like this one. There is a lot of value in this game and as mentioned, it’s the highest total of the night, making it the perfect game stack. I’ll be on the four guys I’ve mentioned so far, and we’ve still got plenty of salary left over to fill in the rest of the lineup.
PG: Ricky Rubio – $6,800
Rubio has settled in nicely with his new team, averaging 33.2 DK points per game so far and contributing across the stat sheet. He now gets the juiciest matchup of them all, the Phoenix Suns. Just look at what opposing point guards have done against them in four games so far (in order of most recent):
- De’Aaron Fox – 39 DK points
- Patrick Beverly – 33.4 DK points
- Lonzo Ball – 54.7 DK points
- Damian Lillard – 52.5 DK points
I think it is well within reason that Rubio will cross over the 40 DK point threshold in this one, which will be roughly 6X value and anything above that is just icing on the cake!
That’s it for today. Be sure to follow me on Twitter at @mrclutchdfs so you can stay up to date on any changes to my plays based on late information.
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