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Buy Low/Sell High: Trading Season is Here

Right around week three is where trading season really opens up.

We are far enough into the year that injuries have gotten to some teams, and we can start taking a stance on players. Whether that means realizing roles aren’t what we though, teams being not what we though, and players just being better or worse than expected.

I don’ think I mentioned it in the previous articles, but I try not to trade until after week three. I am not ready to just say everything I thought in the summer when I was researching was wrong. The only time I make a move is when someone else is ready to do that. For example: giving up on players I was still high on like AJ Green, Le’Veon Bell, etc.

Just remember before you go trading all your depth away – bye weeks are coming soon, and that depth will be needed. At the same time, don’t pass up getting a stud at the expense of giving up a bench player you might have to start in a bye week pinch.

I am always more willing to throw an extra receiver into a deal because I feel as though I can play the matchups and get just as lucky grabbing a waiver wire receiver on a given week to give me 60-70 yards and a TD as the third or fourth receiver I have on my roster.

If you have a question specific to a player or situation feel free to ask  in the comment section below and I will do my best to help you out. You can also reach me on twitter –

BUY LOW

RB – Le’Veon Bell

It is so unbelievably obvious, but just because it is obvious doesn’t mean I can’t put it here.

If we drafted today I would still take him as the top back. I could be swayed if you wanted to take Elliott over him, but they are still the clear one-two punch at the top of the draft. I don’t care if they aren’t lighting it up yet.

If someone wants your Kareem Hunt for Bell, yes I would do that trade. I have seen it asked, offered and accepted many times coming into the week and I would still do it after this week.

WR – Julio Jones

Low is so relative when it comes to studs like Jones. He has 265 yards through three games, but no touchdowns and no blowup games.

If you have come into running back depth one way or another you can probably trade a low-end running back one and get Jones from a running back needy owner.

The only thing that would ever make Jones not a top-five receiver in a week is an injury.

RB – Mike Gillislee

This is what Gillislee is. A touchdown dependent second running back. On a team that is supposed to be leading in most games, and have a lot of scoring chances, he is going to get a lot of those touchdown opportunities.

I think you can get someone to panic if they see how few snaps he played and the fact that his 30-50 yards didn’t come with a touchdown this week.

WR – DeAndre Hopkins

Teams are trying to take him away yet he is still a target monster. He is up to 37 targets through three games; the yards and catches just haven’t been there yet.

The quarterback situation still isn’t ideal, but it is all about the volume of targets he is getting. Don’t wait until he has a big game to make the move.

RB – C.J. Anderson

I can see a lot of panic coming this week because of the carry split for the Broncos this week. But the snaps were in Anderson’s favor (49 of 70) compared to Charles (21).

There is injury risk with Anderson; he was likely the ultimate sell high last week because of that. But there are ebbs and flows with every week, and now he is a buy low.



SELL HIGH

RB – Jordan Howard

What shoulder injury? Well, he did appear limited by it from watching the game, but Howard was still great. The issue with Howard is I just don’t know how many games the Bears will win or be in this year.

Howard got a lot of work last season in blowout losses, but this year Cohen has been in there in late game catchup mode, and I don’t expect that to change.

RB – Joe Mixon

If you didn’t do it last week you missed the chance at buying dirt cheap. You can still get him relatively cheap because he didn’t blow up; he just went for 101 total yards, but this is your last chance for the year to buy anywhere near this low.

Mixon may well have been the most talented running back in the draft this year, he just needed the touches to become fantasy relevant.

BUY HIGH

RB – Todd Gurley

Yea, the schedule is going to get hard. Yea, his yards per carry aren’t fantastic – the stat is overrated anyway. But this is still an elite level running back. Gurley is going to get the volume and he is being used out in space this year, something unheard of last season.

He is as good of a bet as anyone else to get 20 touches in a week, and he is the no doubt goal line back, as well as the first option when they get down there.

I think you might be able to get a little better of a deal than you should because I think a lot of people will be on the sell high train with his upcoming schedule.

Gurley is in the conversation for top-five running back for the rest of the season, and you might be able to get him at close to top-10 running back value.

SELL LOW

RB – LeSean McCoy

I was all over the place with McCoy this offseason. I had him as my number three player overall at one point and at another as a borderline top-20 pick.

There are a lot of red flags with McCoy – there were good things too.

Being on a bad team is almost always a killer at running back. When you might win five games in a season it is hard to be in enough good game scripts to get a lot of work. What offset that was McCoy is like the only good piece of this offense.

At the same time, does that mean teams will just stack the box? Make Taylor and some no name receivers beat them? I didn’t get to see a lot of this game, but I wouldn’t be surprised if that is what happened this week.

This by no means is me saying sell for anything. I still think he is a borderline RB1, but you might be able to get more than that based on name value and someone needing a running back.

 

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.
Andy Germani

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27 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High: Trading Season is Here

  1. I traded James White for Maclin in half PPR, Good move?

    • Even move.

      I would slightly prefer White, just because I almost always the prefer the running back when two players of near the same value, but it is one of those deals where it is fine either way. Can call it a win if you needed the receiver.

      • Yeah this is my team currently now:
        QB: Brees and Mariota
        RB: Mccoy, Gordon, Coleman and D.Henry
        WR: Hopkins,Diggs,Crowder,T.Williams, M. Jones and Maclin
        TE: Kelce and Fleener
        K: Bailey
        Def: Denver
        Is there any player that I should trade away for something better?
        Or does my team look fine?

        • Maybe try packaging a QB or a TE with a RB to get an upgrade at RB.

          If you wanted McCoy and Brees could likely net you a Bell/Zeke. It might feel like an overpay but QBs tend to not have a lot of trade value. You might be able to do it with Marioata but most of the leagues I play in I dont think it would cut it because Mariota is just as good as about everyones quarterback so they wouldnt really be getting an upgrade. Or Brees and Coleman for a more locked and loaded RB2 than Coleman’s weekly up and down nature.

          Personal preference but I dont think you need the backups at QB and TE. Any chance I get to include a QB in a deal I try and then just stream off the waivers.

          Id keep Kelce and try to throw Fleener in a deal as a sweetener but I wouldnt care all that much if you just ended up dropping him.

          Basically I would try to trade a combo of Fleener, a QB, and either a RB or WR for an upgrade at either of those spots.

          Brees will grab more attention so if you want to trade one float his name out there along with a RB or WR and see what happens

          The team is solid though.

          • Ok there is another team in my league that could use a QB that has alot of RB’s Here is his team:
            QB: Big Ben and Luck
            RB: Elliott,Hyde,Hunt, Gillislee, J.Rodgers, Buck Allen
            WR: Beckham,Bryant and Parker
            TE: Graham and Watson
            K: Vinatieri
            Def: Pats and Steelers

            Any trade offers that I should send him that might work?
            Thank you for all your help by the way and Go Pittsburgh!

          • If you can pair something to get Elliott or Beckham I would go for it. If you can upgrade to one of those guys but just giving up a quarterback your team gets better.

          • From another team: Brees and Henry for Freeman
            What do you think?

          • If you can do that, I would in a heartbeat

          • Trade accepted it ended up being a 3 for 1 Brees, Henry and Fleener for Freeman, was the third player too much or still a good deal?

          • Love the deal. Have 3 locked and loaded RB1s.

            Mariota isn’t Brees but he doesnt have to be when you upgrade from Henry to Freeman

          • Thank you, he had AJ green as well do you think I made the right call going after freeman instead? I went after Freeman cause he’s a top 10 RB and I have Coleman in case of injury

          • Id prefer Freeman barely but cant go wrong with either

  2. I’m thinking about offering Jordan Howard for Travis Kelce. Smart?

  3. Trade offer- Giving up A.J. Green and Mark Ingram for C.J. Anderson and Doug Baldwin.

    My team is loaded at wr with Evans, Green, Hopkins, and Diggs
    RB’s are Hyde, Gore, Ingram, and Allen.

    I feel like with an even roster I would pass, but a top flight rb is what my roster is missing.

    Thoughts?

    • I probably would hold, but that is mainly because I am hesitant to trade for Baldwin while he has injury issues. Right now he says it isnt serious but there are so many times these things turn into 1-2 game absences.

      If we know for certain he is playing I would do it. See if you can wait a day or two and check out practice reports Wednesday and Thursday.

      If the Saints would just give Ingram the ball you would be fine, it just doesnt seem like they are intent on giving him much work.

  4. I’m in a 12 team .5 ppr league.  My team is as follows (prior to waivers this week):

    QB Stafford, RB Hunt, RB Fournette, WR AJ Green, WR B. Cooks, WR Sanu
    TE Ertz, FLEX James White, Def Min, K Tucker
    BE D. Foreman, BE Ebron, BE Rams Def, BE Agholar, BE Perine, BE Beasely, BE Char. West, IR Andrew Luck

    I was offered Gillislee for Ertz straight up.  Is this a worthwhile deal?

    • Man that is tough. I would hold Ertz because it is so hard to find a tight end that can give you any consistency and he is going to do that.

      What kind of tight ends are on the waiver wire? The position is just so bad that it is almost easier finding someone that can be Gillislee on the wire at RB than it is to find someone that can be Ertz even every other week at tight end.

      The deal itself is very fair though if you cant tell by the above comment

      • Thanks. The waiver wire has the zach miller, Watson, brate and asj

        • With those being the options at tight end I would hold. That is a significant dropoff. I have Ertz pegged for about 1000 yards and 5-6 TDs which while it doesnt sound like anything special is borderline elite at tight end

          • Would the answer change if I could turn ertz into amari cooper straight up?

          • I would do it for Cooper. Even though those waiver tight ends are vomit inducing, I would have to take that upgrade.

            I would go for Watson, ASJ, Brate in that order. But they are all in the same area to me so if you feel more strongly about one of them go with whatever one you like the most.

  5. I’ve been offered LeVeon Bell and Hunter Henry for D.Freeman And Jordan Howard. Do you think Bell is a way better bet than Freeman moving forward?
    Love your site BTW.

    • I do love Bell. From all points. Fantasy, running style, and I am from Pittsburgh so it’s nice to see it every Sunday but I dont think I would do that.

      A little too rich as Henry is basically replacement level. Yes there is upside excitement but 2 out of 3 weeks we saw what the downside is. So you can find another 5-10 of him on waivers any given week. Unless you can get another RB or WR instead of Henry I wouldnt do it.

      I want to buy Bell but only if I can get him a little lower than what his price was on draft day, and that is probably draft day price.

      Glad you’re enjoying it

  6. Is D.Thomas from Denver a Buy low player?

    • Ya. Depends on how low you are buying.

      I think he was a little overrated in the preseason but he will definitely do better than what he’s done through 4 games. If you’re buying now you can typically get that bye week discount.

      I think he’s a low end WR2. At this point he reminds me of Golden Tate. Kind of expecting those kind of points from him.

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