Week one brings on a lot of overreaction. It is our only data point so we have nothing to compare it to.
There will be a lot of confirmation bias here. People you thought were good preseason were good, so now you KNOW they are good. Same goes for bad players.
Yes we know something now, but not a ton.
Don’t forget all that preseason research you did. There is a new data point, but don’t make week one your biggest value point.
The trades listed below are things I would not be surprised to see accepted from a panicked owner. A lot of them could easily get rejected, but it is just something to keep in mind that you might be able to get as a starting point.
Week one sell highs tend to be obvious, but they are here nonetheless.
RB – Jordan Howard
There will be a lot of Tarik Cohen talk this week, and rightfully so, but Howard is still the lead back in this offense. The downside here is Howard got so much work last year as the only man in town while the Bears were getting beat up late in games.
Now maybe Cohen takes work away in the second half comeback mode. I think you can find a panicking Howard owner to take advantage of as tons of people will be hyping Cohen.
- Potential buy low offer: Amari Cooper for Howard
WR – Doug Baldwin
Baldwin had a down game, as did the entire Seahawks offense. Thomas Rawls was out and Eddie Lacey ineffective before leaving the game.
Most weeks Baldwin will be the focal point and pile up the targets. I was on board with Baldwin being a top-12 receiver and still am. Receivers have up and down weeks; not everyone will panic, but someone will be disappointed with this performance from a top-30 pick.
- Potential buy low offer: Tyreek Hill and Austin Hooper for Baldwin
QB – Tom Brady
Everyone watched that game Thursday night. Well maybe not everyone, but you get the picture. Those stand alone games get extra attention. More eyes are on those games than any random game Sunday afternoon.
Has Brady lost a little? I don’t know – maybe. But I will take the chance that he didn’t. He has lost weapons and Amendola might be out with a concussion issue. The big pieces are there. Brandin Cooks and the next guy on this list….
- Potential buy low offer: Ben Roethlisberger and Golden Tate for Brady
TE – Rob Gronkowski
Every offseason there are anti-Gronkowski people – those will toot their horns. Gronk will get his as he usually does. I don’t know what to say other than trust the beasts in New England.
- Potential buy low offer: Zach Ertz and Terrelle Pryor for Gronkowski
RB – David Johnson
Bonus one here. Obviously wait for the MRI results, but remember when Zeke was still a top-25 pick from a lot of people with his suspension?
Johnson could very well miss less time. If someone wants to ship him off you might be able to get $.50 on the dollar. Just remember with injuries we never know the full story.
RB – Mike Gillislee
The third Patriot on this list. Gillislee looked like he had the LeGarrette Blount role. While that is good, I am not convinced he is locked into it long term. He got stuffed on two fourth downs and on a couple goal to go carries before he eventually punched one in.
I wouldn’t be surprised if we saw more Rex Burkehead in the coming weeks, or James White sees the field more as pass catchers go down.
If he keeps the role all year the upside is Blount from last year. There are too many backs in New England that can run the ball as well as catch it. I would sell if I could.
- Potential sell high offer: Gillislee and Jeremy Maclin for Lamar Miller
WR – Kenny Golladay
He is the third receiver, and as much as this offense passes, a lot of that passing is underneath to Golden Tate or to the backs. I will say I do own a lot of Galladay in best ball leagues, but that is a completely different animal.
Golladay will score some games, but I don’t want to play that game. Some offseason hype and now a breakout first game, I think people will buy into him as a WR2/3.
- Potential sell high offer: Golladay for James White
RB – Kareem Hunt
Calm down, I am not saying you have to sell him.
It is just because I have seen so many crazy trade offers asked about and some drafts that happened after week one where the hype got out of control. The “should I trade Hunt for Bell” questions are mind blowing.
If you can swing a top-10 pick for Hunt do it. I heard/saw some analysts saying they weren’t sure if they would trade Hunt for Julio. Run and do that.
- Potential sell high offer: Hunt for Julio
RB – Ameer Abdullah
I wasn’t a huge Abdullah fan to start with, and that hasn’t changed. He is still living off that hype from a preseason game a few years ago. He has been injured over and over and hasn’t ever done anything.
The Lions run the ball through the short passing game. Theo Riddick is a better fit for the offense they want to run, I think. Dwayne Washington was also getting some grind out the clock carries.
- Potential sell low offer: Abdullah for Cobb and Jeremy Hill
RB – Leonard Fournette
With Robinson out he is the first, second, and third option in that offense.
More often than not they won’t be playing from ahead like they were week one, so don’t expect upwards of 30 touches per week. I would be shocked if at the end of the year he didnt have 300 carries.
At this point I think Fournette would go at the 1/2 turn in drafts. The difference between him and Hunt is I trust Fournette’s skill set more.
- Potential buy high offer: Jordy Nelson for Fournette
Looking for additional buy/sell trade advice or waiver wire pick-ups, head on over to Fantasy Rundown.