This is a great slate for pitching as the options are aplenty. We also have plenty of offenses and one-offs to target, so there are a lot of different ways you could end up going. For me, this will be a slate where I narrow down my stacks and batters to a handful of options, while picking the top four or five pitchers I like. I’ll then make as many lineups as I can that incorporates all those players Hopefully there will be a combination or two that goes off. With that said, here’s who I like on this slate.
Pitchers to Target
Chris Archer – Archer is as consistent as they come and has as much upside as anyone on the slate, making him one of the best overall plays. At home, Archer has been four DraftKings points better than on the road and has 113 strikeouts in 84 innings. His opponent, the Toronto Blue Jays, are sixth worse in terms of wOBA against right-handed pitching on the season at just 0.310. They strikeout 20.7% of the time, but I do expect that to be higher on Tuesday due to Archer’s 29.4% K rate to righties and 30.1% to lefties.
Lance Lynn – The Padres are a matchup that we like to take pitchers against and Lynn is definitely one I have interest in. I think he has a really safe floor in this game, and because of the Padres second worse strikeout rate to right-handed pitching, he does pose some upside here. The Padres also sport the second worst wOBA. Lynn is simply underpriced on DraftKings, so he’s an exceptionally solid play there.
Patrick Corbin – If you haven’t been paying attention, Corbin has been outstanding lately. He has been over 15 DraftKings points in nine of his last 10 starts, with three of those topping 20 points and his last two topping 30. He has seen a drastic price increase and is the second highest priced option on this slate. I think that makes him a perfect tournament play, especially considering some of the options priced below him that I think people will gravitate to. The Mets have struck out over 24% of the time against left-handed pitchers this season, and the way Corbin has been fanning the opposition, he has a high strikeout ceiling here.
Jeff Samardzija – Another slate with the Shark and another slate that I write him up. He’s not a guy I would play in cash, if I played cash games, but I love him as a tournament option. The Brewers are the one team worse than the Padres in strikeout rate to righties, so he should have no problem racking up the K’s. If he can limit the damage when they do put the ball in play, he should finish with a great line. At home in a great park, I think he will limit the damage.
Charlie Morton – I usually stop at three or four pitchers, but there are just so many guys I like on this slate. Morton matches up against a Washington Nationals team that is ice-cold right now without Bryce Harper. At his price on DraftKings, and due to the guys he’s priced around, I think his ownership comes in below where it should be.
Batters to Target
Nicky Delmonico – Delmonico has been as hot as anyone lately and I’ll be going back to the well on this slate. In 44 plate appearance against right-handed pitchers, he has posted a .409 batting average, .485 wOBA, .295 ISO, and a .705 slugging percentage. Now he’ll face Kyle Gibson. Your eyes should be lighting up. Gibson has allowed a .376 wOBA to lefties on the season. Delmonico is still more than affordable on both sites.
Albert Pujols – Pujols has been hitting the ball well lately and will face off against Tyson Ross, who has allowed a .396 wOBA to right-handed batters this season. Pujols has been better against right-handed pitching as well, and is cheap enough to consider on this slate. Mike Trout is unsurprisingly a great play as well against Ross.
J.D. Martinez – Martinez might be the best play on the entire slate. Tommy Milone is allowing a 0.452 wOBA to right-handed batters, while giving up a 3.7 HR/9 and 28.6% HR/FB rate. Martinez is sporting a HR/FB rate of 43.8% against lefties while hitting it in the air 38.1% of the time and hitting line drives 35.7% of the time. It should be no secret that Martinez is insane against lefties this season to the tune of a .411 batting average, .564 wOBA and .518 ISO. Martinez will hit the ball in the air against Milone and there’s a dang good chance that ball will end up in the bleachers somewhere between the foul poles.
Stacks to Target
New York Yankees – I love the Yankees righties in this one. Boyd has allowed a .370 wOBA to right-handed batters while giving up fly balls to the rate of 41.9% and a hard hit rate of 38.6%. Aaron Judge and Gary Sanchez are going to cost you on this slate, but they are elite plays.
Chicago Cubs – Homer Bailey gave up six earned runs in 5.2 innings in his last start, which was against this Cubs team. He also struck out 10 batters in that game. That was an anomaly. He won’t strike out 10 batters in this game, and therefore could be in for a worse outing that his last start. Bailey has allowed a .457 wOBA to right-handed batters, but that number inflates to .587 at home. He’s only faced 50 righties at home, but that number is as bad as I’ve ever seen. While those number stand out, he’s been plenty giving to lefties as well, with a .389 wOBA, which also inflates to .493 at home. Load up on the Cubs in all formats!
Minnesota Twins – If you haven’t been loading up on the Twins the past couple days, you’ve been missing out (*NOTE – I haven’t, SIGH*). They have been as hot as any team all year in such a short time frame. In their past six games, they’ve scored more than 10 runs three times, while not scoring less than five in any of them. They’ll face Lucas Giolito on Tuesday, making his season debut. Last year, he struggled against both righties (.478 wOBA) and lefties (.459 wOBA). His strikeout rate was 13% to lefties and just 8.5% to righties. Lefties hit the ball harder against him at a clip of 45%, and also had a 42.1% fly ball rate. While righties only hit the ball in the air 22.2% of the time against Giolito, they sported an absurd 50% HR/FB rate. I say all that to say, play anyone in the Twins lineup.
Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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