Pitchers to Target
Alex Wood – Wood’s price has fallen back to a level where I will give him serious consideration again. His last four starts have been much different than nearly all of those before, but he has big upside in this spot against the White Sox. Earlier in the year I tried to stay away from lefties against the Sox, but those days have come and gone. Wood is still an elite option, and we get him at a price point $3,000 cheaper than the top option on DraftKings. The White Sox run total is set at 2.8 runs, so Vegas is fully behind Wood as well.
Dinnelson Lamet – Lamet returns home after a couple of games on the road. At home he has averaged 20.5 DraftKings points per game, nearly six points better than on the road. Being at home in a matchup against the Phillies gives Lamet tons of upside. The Phillies have a 23.4% K rate to go along with a .308 wOBA and .148 ISO against righties this season. They get a big ballpark downgrade here. I expect Lamet to be my highest owned pitcher tomorrow if I go the multiple lineup route. If I build one optimal lineup, he will be in it.
Marco Estrada – Estrada has looked like a decent pitcher over his last three to four starts, and against some pretty good offenses. We know his opponent, the Tampa Bay Rays, pose some power, but they also strike out second most in the league to right-handed pitching. Their offense has been anemic lately, scoring just 12 runs over their last 10 games. All things point to Estrada being able to have a solid outing at a reasonable price. He’s also got some solid BVP in his favor here.
Batters to Target
Ozzie Albies – Albies still has a very limited sample size, but he’s hit two home runs in eight plate appearances against lefties to start his career. He has also struck out zero times. In Coors, against a lefty, he is underpriced at just $3,300. I’ll have my fair share.
Giancarlo Stanton – If you haven’t been playing Stanton, you’ve been missing out. He now has a home run in five straight games. On this slate he has been priced down to $5,200 to account for his matchup with Madison Bumgarner. It still doesn’t matter to me, because Bumgarner is a lefty and Stanton owns lefties. In his career, Stanton is 8-for-16 with a home run against MadBum.
Justin Smoak – I have a gut feeling Smoak goes deep in this one, maybe even twice. He has a massive .419 batting average, .541 wOBA and .419 ISO at home against lefties this season. That’s all I really need to say.
Lorenzo Cain – Cain has been hot lately and now he faces Chris Smith, who has been really bad against righties so far this season with a .381 wOBA and a 28.6% HR/FB rate. He’s also giving up a 42.4% fly ball rate. You don’t have to be a genius in math to realize that’s not a good rate. We’re talking 3.72 HR/9 right now. Cain has been no slouch against righties, posting a .304 batting average and 0.344 wOBA.
Stacks to Target
Cleveland Indians – Time to triple down on stacking against Bartolo Colon. Colon has turned back the hands of time in his last two starts, both of which myself and most of DFS were stacking against him. I’m going back to the well here. I think the Indians will ends Colon’s hot streak and provide plenty of fantasy goodness. Colon has been more generous to righties in terms of batting average (.335) and wOBA (.390), but has allowed lefties to hit the ball harder (41.9% HH) and allowed a higher FB rate (43.2%). Therefore, I like the meat of the lineup for Cleveland, regardless of which side of plate they hit from.
Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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