How is it already August? Football is right around the corner now! We have a very interesting slate on Tuesday. There are so many ways that you can go and different routes to take. Due to this, I think ownership will be pretty spread out. Therefore, just go with the combination you think has the highest upside for points. I’ll outline which way I’m leaning below.
Pitchers to Target
I’m going to be paying down at pitcher on this slate. Unless I just have a ton of extra salary after fitting in the bats and stacks I want, I’ll mix up some combinations of mid-priced arms. I just can’t pay $11,000 for Marcus Stroman and don’t feel great about going up to $13,000+ for the top two arms. With that said, here are a handful of guys I’m looking at.
Jimmy Nelson – I really like where Nelson is priced compared to his upside. Over his last eight games, his strikeout upside has been there, with 67 strikeouts in 51.2 innings. The Cardinals aren’t an offense that scare me, and they strike out nearly 22% of the time. Nelson has been much better at home this season, where he’ll be on Tuesday night. He’ll be in my core group of pitchers.
Jose Berrios – Berrios will face the Padres. He has been struggling lately, but he has faced some tough offenses this year. If there is ever a team to get right against, it’s the Padres, especially in San Diego. He’s another arm that is priced down but has big upside due to the Padres 25.4% strikeout rate to righties.
Jeff Samardzija – The Shark is a regular here in my write up, but he has had his struggles. A lot of those struggles were due to simply being unlucky. He finally got things turned around in his last start, posting 30 Draftkings points. He’ll face the Oakland A’s, who do have some power and pose some risk. However, they strike out 25% of the time against righties. Positive regression is bound to set in. Another instance of upside at a big discount from the top arms.
Sean Manaea – Manaea has been up and down, but he has shown some upside as well. I’ll play anyone against the Giants who are simply not good in any regard. I’m like a broken record today, but this is why I’m targeting these mid-priced arms. They have upside and allow you to fit so much more on the offensive side.
Chris O’Grady – He only costs $4,500, so he’s worth looking at. He has been serviceable in four starts, posting double digit Draftkings points in all four. In his last start he flirted with his ceiling at 25 points. He doesn’t have the easiest matchup, but if he can get me 12-15 points, I’d be ecstatic.
Batters to Target
Mike Zunino – Zunino leads the entire slate over the past 15 days in batted ball distance. He has hit the ball an average of 300 feet exactly in that span. I can’t remember seeing a number that high from anyone all year who had at least 10+ starts in the 15 day span. He also has the third highest exit velocity and the sixth best hard hit percentage. Lastly, he is third on the slate with a 62% fly ball rate. In the Texas heat against Nick Martinez, I love his chances to go deep. He’s expensive for a catcher, but my goal is to pay up on Tuesday anyways.
Javier Baez – If you do need some salary relief on this slate, you’ll want to consider Baez. He has been exceptional against lefties so far this year with a .361 wOBA and a .282 ISO. Patrick Corbin has been really bad against righties, and although it doesn’t make a ton of sense, he’s been even worse on the road. Away from home, he has allowed a .428 wOBA in 32.2 innings. Baez does struggle with striking out, but that doesn’t worry me too much here, as Corbin has only fanned righties at 18.7%.
Miguel Cabrera – Cabrera is facing a lefty whose last name is Sabathia. He still is underpriced on Draftkings. I think he actually fits in well with my stack below. There’s no need to overthink a play like this when it’s so obvious.
Stacks to Target
I rarely write up the teams in Coors, because I’m usually the guy who just stays away in hopes the ownership doesn’t match the upside if there is a good pivot option. However, this is an instance where I want as many possible hitters from both the Colorado Rockies and New York Mets. These pitchers have been horrible over the past month and they are in for a long night. This is a slate where I’ll try to roster my pitchers above with a mix of hitters from this game in all of my stacks.
Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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