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Mr Clutch’s MLB DFS Quick Hits 7/18

It’s a weird slate. We have Clayton Kershaw topping out at $14,000 on DraftKings, but he is in the one matchup that I don’t typically like – a lefty against the White Sox. Granted, this is Clayton Kershaw, but I still don’t think I want to pay $14,000 here. Then again, there’s nothing else jumping out as safe or that I feel too great about.

Another one of my rules, play Robbie Ray every time on the road, isn’t a sure thing here either, as he is playing in the small park at Cincinnati. There’s nothing easy on this slate. Just pick your poison. I’ll give you some idea of where I’m going below.

Pitchers to Target

I can’t promise I won’t roster either of the guys mentioned above, but I’m going to try to find some cheaper pitchers to allow me to pay up for bats. If I’m feeling good about that route late in the afternoon I’ll go with it. If not, I will probably end up with Kershaw or Ray.

Mike Clevinger – Clevinger has been a solid in his last three starts against three good offenses. Now he gets to face the leagues worst offense in terms of wOBA against righties, and in one of the best parks for pitchers. On a slate like this one, I don’t see a way for anyone to talk me off of Clevinger. He will be a staple in my lineups.

Blake Snell? – From this point on, we’ll be reaching. The Oakland A’s strike out over 26% of the time against left-handed pitching, so we’re hoping he finds the upside in this matchup. Another plus is that the A’s are currently one of the six teams on the slate with a team total below 4.5 runs.

Rafael Montero – Montero has averaged over a strikeout per inning this season, but he has struggled with walks, allowing 24 free passes in 39 innings. Things seems to be headed in the right direction, giving up just 7 walks in his past 19.1 innings. He’s been very unlucky this season with a BABIP of .385 against lefties and .424 against righties. Montero is due for some positive regression. He’s the kind of guy who can throw 6-7 innings and end up with eight strikeouts and only a couple runs against. If he comes anywhere close to that at $6,000, I’ll more than be happy with it.

Batters to Target

Miguel Cabrera – The guy continues to get no respect. He remains just $3,700 on DraftKings and has an excellent matchup, albeit in a less than ideal ballpark. The opposing starting pitcher, Travis Wood, has allowed a .370 wOBA against righties this season and a .326 batting average. He has struck out just 16% of said handed batters and walked 12.3%. Cabrera is sporting a .339 batting average against lefties. On top of all that, he is in the top five on the slate in both exit velocity and hard hit percentage over the past 15 days. This feels like a spot where we get multiple base hits with the upside for a lot more.

Jay Bruce – Bruce is making a run back up the recent batted ball stats leaderboard. He is second on the entire slate in batted ball distance over the past 15 days. We rode him early in the season when he was hot, and I’m going to jump back on now. He’ll face off against Michael Wacha, who has been the complete opposite at home than on the road. On the road he has allowed over a .400 wOBA to opposing batters (.408 to lefties). Bruce is fairly priced and in a great spot here.

Justin Turner – Turner has flown under the radar after getting a late start to the season. In case you haven’t noticed, he’s sitting at a .382 batting average through 69 games played. He’ll face Miguel Gonzalez Tuesday, who has allowed a .351 wOBA to righties to go along with a 10.9% K rate and 42% fly ball rate. Turner has done a lot more damage against lefties, but this is a gut play for me. I think he could get a hold of one here, and even if he doesn’t, you’re still looking at a reasonable outcome of something like 2-for-5.

Stacks to Target

New York Yankees – I’ve been stacking anyone and everyone against Bartolo Colon all season, and just when I thought we couldn’t do that any longer, the Twins sign him and will throw him to the wolves Tuesday against the Yankees. Play all the usual suspects here. Colon has allowed a .423 wOBA to righties and .371 to lefties. I don’t see me having too many lineups tomorrow without a full Yankees stack.

Tampa Bay Rays (lefties) – I always enjoy stacking the Tampa lefties in tourneys against right-handed pitching. Although it’s a very limited sample size (11 batters), Chris Smith showed some weakness against lefties this season, allowing four hits, two runs, a home run and only striking out one batter. This could be an under the radar spot to use these high upside bats at the top of the lineup.

Any questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs

 

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Eric S
Eric is the creator of DFSdigest.com and has played fantasy football for nearly 20 years now and is primarily a GPP player in DFS. He estimates he enters lineups in either football, basketball, baseball or golf roughly 350 days a year. Eric is ranked inside the top 7% in RotoGrinders overall player ranking. His favorite teams include the Detroit Lions, Oklahoma City Thunder, Oklahoma State Cowboys, and the Atlanta Braves.
Eric S

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