Welcome to June 30th. I don’t know where the year has gone, but it’s half over. This is a very interesting slate, and I think there is a definitive path to take with pitching and stacks. If we can find a few successful punts, I believe it will be a winning strategy. Let’s get to it.
Pitchers to Target
Alex Wood – I don’t know how I’ll be able to resist playing Wood on this slate, regardless of his ownership. This is the juiciest of juicy matchups. Wood has been dominant the entire season and has nine straight very good starts to show for it. I shouldn’t have to tell you the reasons to play pitchers against the Padres, especially lefties. You can probably recite their numbers based on how many times I’ve written up pitchers against them, but here they are anyways.
The Padres are dead last in wOBA against left-handed pitching and bottom three in strikeout percentage at 25.3%. This is probably the most confident I’ve been all year on a pitcher, which scares me a bit. I’ll still lock him in without hesitation.
Jacob deGrom – The Philadelphia Phillies are another team that we target often, as they are bottom four against righties in terms of wOBA and strike out 23.5% of the time. On top of that, they have the second worst ISO. Both Wood and deGrom are facing opponents with a 3.1 run team total and are both in the top five on the slate in batted ball distance against (Wood is first, deGrom is fifth).
Jacob Faria – There’s only one reason I’m considering going down from deGrom for my second pitcher. I need the savings to get my favorite stack below in. Faria has been exceptional in many regards to start his big league career. It’s still early, but he appears to be an ace in the making. He’s only allow a .244 wOBA to lefties and .251 to righties, with strike out rates at 25 and 29.3%, respectively. Faria costs 30% less than deGrom, and I think he would outscore him more at least 30% of the time in this spot.
Batters to Target
Alex Avila – I really like Avila in this matchup against the right-handed pitcher. Josh Tomlin allows a .353 wOBA to lefties. Avila has a .455 wOBA and .311 ISO against right-handed pitching.
Cody Bellinger – He’s really expensive, but he’s the perfect one-off. No one will play him against a lefty. Albeit in a smaller sample size, he has a higher wOBA and ISO against left handed pitchers so far at .418 and .397, respectively.
Matt Olson – Olson is an exceptional play at this price. The sample size is still small, but he has hit the ball well against righties. Mike Foltynewicz has allowed a .390 wOBA to lefties, and that is oddly higher on the road than at home. Olson unlocks the expensive bats or two expensive pitching options together.
Austin Barnes – Barnes is a viable option at catcher that has some power and is in the right side of the split here. He has a 0.378 wOBA and a 0.244 ISO against lefties this season
Stacks to Target
Tampa Bay Rays – I’m not sure how you don’t stack the Rays here. Chris Tillman has been absolutely atrocious this season. His best DraftKings point total over his last seven starts is 7.5. He has three negative outcome games in that span, one at -19. I don’t know how he can remain a starter much longer. He is allowing a .463 wOBA to lefties and .400 to righties this season after facing over 100 batters from each side of the plate.
The Rays can strike out a lot, but I’m not worried about that here, as Tillman strikes out less than 10% of lefties (I am most excited about the main Rays lefties), while walking over 19% of hitters from the same side. The Rays have the second best ISO against right handers in the league. Outside of this stack, I think the rest of my lineup will consist of mini-stacks and one-offs.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
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