Hey everyone, hope you’ve had a good week. I’m back in the saddle after a much-needed vacation. It’s nice to get away from DFS as well for a few days during the season. I enter lineups roughly 350 days a year, so anytime I choose not to for a few days, it really does feel like a relief, while at the same time feeling a bit odd.
Anyways, we’ve got a big slate on tap for Friday, so let’s get to my plays. This is feeling like a day when I enter multiple lineups, mixing and matching my pitchers below, while taking some stands on my bats.
Pitchers to Target
Alex Wood – I think we can reasonably expect a solid outing out of Alex Wood, and he’s affordably priced compared to the studs above him. The Rockies are decent against left-handed pitching, but that’s inflated because of playing half of their games in Coors Field. Wood has allowed a .245 wOBA to left-handed batters and only .212 to right-handed batters. He is one of the safer options out there, who still exhibits sizeable upside. The Rockies have a slate low 3.4 run projected total.
Michael Fulmer – Fulmer has struggled in his last couple starts, but what better opportunity to get a pitcher back on track other than a date with the Padres in San Diego. The Padres strike out more than anyone against right-handed pitching and have the second worst wOBA at .298. In this park, Fulmer should be a safe play with decent upside.
Dinelson Lamet – Lamet is cheap and has as much strikeout upside as anyone on this slate. His matchup is a bit scary opposite Fulmer and the Detroit Tigers, but they’ve been average at 15th in the league in terms of wOBA against right-handed pitching. In his five starts he has struck out eight, eight, three, six, and 12 batters. The game he only struck three was in Arizona, so that’s understandable.
The Tigers strike out 23% of the time against righties and are in the bottom 12 in ISO. If he limits the home runs in this game, which is something he has struggled with, he could be the best point per dollar pitcher on the board.
***UPDATE*** Lamet has had his start pushed back to Saturday, so we’ll have to wait to play him until then. I’ll be switching my shares of him to Chris Archer, who I should have plenty of salary for with all of the value available.
Seth Lugo – Lugo has looked impressive in his first two starts of the season. Now he travels to San Francisco to take on the Giants. He gets arguably the worst offense in the league this season, in one of the best pitcher’s parks in the league. Throw in his reasonable price and I probably won’t be able to stay away from him.
Batters to Target
Matt Davidson – This is a batted ball special. Davidson has taken over the title of recent batted ball champion after his scorching run. He has the highest distance over the past 15 days (among players with 10+ starts), and sports the second highest exit velocity and fourth highest hard hit percentage. Davidson has 13 home runs against right-handed pitchers in 141 plate appearances. He’ll face Jharel Cotton, who has a .358 wOBA allowed to right-handed batters, a 41.1% hard hit rate, and 47.3% fly ball rate. Davidson has a great shot to go yard here.
Ian Happ – Happ has heated back up after a bit of a slump, and he’s producing night in and night out. He has one of the highest ISO splits on the slate at .341 against right-handed pitching. His opponent, Jose Urena, shows really good numbers against lefties this year, which may lead to people overlooking this matchup, but don’t be fooled. Urena’s BABIP is less than .200, which will most definitely regress to the mean. Happ will be a sneaky play.
Joey Bautista – Joey Bats is slowly breaking out of his slump and he’s underpriced on DraftKings. I’ll gladly take a shot at him in this matchup. Jakob Junis has had a rough start to his big league career. He’s currently allowing a .415 wOBA, 2.45 HR/9, 43.6% hard hit rate, and 50% fly ball rate to right-handed hitters. Bautista’s troubles have been against left-handed pitchers this year. Against right handers, he’s right around his career numbers with .352 wOBA and .215 ISO. Leading off on the road, in this matchup, at this price, makes him nearly a must play for me.
Aaron Altherr – Altherr has been exceptional against left handed pitching this season and he couldn’t have a better matchup in a better park. On the season he has a 0.376 wOBA and a 0.353 ISO against left handed pitching. What’s most surprising about that is is 0.204 BABIP. He’s not priced appropriately for this matchup. Patrick Corbin is allowing a 0.377 wOBA to right handed batters.
Stacks to Target
Tampa Bay Rays – The Rays continue to stick out to me as a very viable stack here. We know they strike out a lot, but they hit for as much power as anyone and against Ubaldo Jimenez, they have exceptional upside. I like the standard top four in the lineup here.
Cleveland Indians – The Indians are an obvious stack on this slate, with a slate high team total of 5.9. This looks like a situation where we can expect singles, walks, and then some home runs to knock in the base runners. Adalberto Mejia has given up multiple home runs in four of his last seven games. His season stats read like this: 40.2 innings pitched, 43 hits against, 25 earned runs, and 22 walks to go along with 36 strikeouts. His strikeouts are respectable, but the Indians strike out the second fewest times in the league to lefties.
Arizona Diamondbacks – The Philadelphia Phillies are starting Mark Leiter Jr. in this one, and that’s not going to end well. Leiter Jr. has posted a 4.74 ERA this season with a 12:14 K:BB ratio. And that was in relief, so this will be a bullpen game. That’s a recipe for disaster in Chase Field. I shouldn’t have to elaborate any more here, but all of the usual suspects are in play in this D-backs stack.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
Go to Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.