We’ve got a huge slate today, so I’ll do my best to break down what’s jumping out at me below. Before we get started, I do want to mention that I will visiting Las Vegas, Nevada for vacation over the next week, which I’m really looking forward to. Unfortunately for DFS, I won’t be able to play while I’m there, so I probably won’t be able to have a write-up on Friday or next Tuesday.
In all honesty, I’m not sure how much you would want to listen to what I have to say based on the amount of alcohol I may or may not drink while I’m there. Lastly, if you have any dark horses for the U.S. Open (that are not listed on today’s DFS golf article – out later today), hit me up on Twitter. I plan on getting my bets in Wednesday night!
Pitchers to Target
Clayton KKKershaw – I don’t usually write him up, because he should be a given any time he plays. That said: if you can fit him in your lineup today, do it. It’s not the greatest matchup against the Cleveland Indians, who strike out only 17.7% of the time to left-handed pitching. However, it’s Kershaw, and while they don’t strike out, they sport a wOBA barely over .300 and a ISO of just .141. I think I’ll lock in the guaranteed upside and figure out the rest from there.
Marco Estrada – If you don’t want to pay up for Kershaw, you might want to consider Estrada. He may not have as much strikeout upside as Kershaw, given his strikeout rate and his opponent. This season he is striking left-handed batters out 28.9% of the time, and right-handed batters at 26.6%. The Rays strike out 25.8% of the time against right-handed pitchers. Something has to give here. The only thing that is a bit worrisome is that when they’re not striking out, they are hitting the ball hard. The Rays are fifth in wOBA and second in ISO against righties. This play comes with immense upside, but it’s not without risk.
Tyler Chatwood – Chatwood is a guy I always consider when he is outside of Coors. The Pirates have a mediocre .313 wOBA against righties and a weak .141 ISO. They don’t strike out a ton, but Chatwood should be able to rack up 5+. Add in that this is in a pitcher’s park and Chatwood becomes a stronger play. The Pirates do have an oddly high team total, so I’ll be monitoring that as the day goes on and dive a little deeper to make a final determination.
Alec Asher – This play isn’t for the faint of heart, but his advanced stats look pretty good over the past couple starts. He’s second best on the slate in exit velocity against over the past 15 days, and he leads the slate in hard hit percentage against. Today he gets a matchup that I like to target for right handers, the Chicago White Sox. Granted, the White Sox have improved a little against righties, but just a little. Asher is $4,700 on DraftKings; that leaves you a lot of salary for your bats as your SP2.
Batters to Target
Corey Seager – Seager is one of my favorite plays every time he’s facing a right-handed pitcher – which is obviously a lot. Over his career he has a 0.396 wOBA and 0.218 wOBA against righties. His bat has really woken up over the past six games with three multi-hit games after only having one in the previous eight games. He also had two home runs in that six game stretch. He faces Trevor Bauer in this one, who has allowed a .380 wOBA to righties with cringe-worthy 2.3 HR/9. Seager is a solid play in all formats.
Khris Davis – Davis hits a lot of home runs against right-handed pitchers. This season he has hit 16 in 201 plate appearances in said split. Jose Urena is a reverse splits pitcher this season, allowing a .392 wOBA to righties with a 22.6% HR/FB rate. This feels like an opportunity for a multi-home run game from Davis.
Wilmer Flores – I have to admit that I have been ignoring the Mets against left-handed pitchers this season, so I haven’t been on the Flores train. That’s unfortunate for me, as he has a .412 batting average against lefties in 36 plate appearances this season. His wOBA and ISO are .443 and .225 respectively. Jon Lester, on the other hand, has struggled against righties, especially on the road. Albeit in a limited sample size, he has allowed a .468 wOBA against right-handed hitters with a 2.45 HR/9. Flores’ price is exceptional and I’ll be playing him here in a very underowned spot.
Jose Pirela – Although the sample size is about half (6 games to 13), Pirela has hit the ball farther and harder than Aaron Judge over the past 15 days. Until his price comes up or he comes back down to earth, I think you have to consider him. Leading off against Scott Feldman increases my interest a little.
Matt Carpenter – This is a FanDuel only play because this game is not on the DraftKings main slate. Carpenter is hitting leadoff again, against what seems to be a below average pitcher when facing lefties. He’s simply underpriced at $3,300. Play him at this price every night against right handed pitching, because mark my word, he’ll be $3,800-$4,000 in the very near future. NOTE – Jimmy Nelson is starting this game now, which lowers my interest in Carpenter as Nelson has been respectable against lefties this year.
Stacks to Target
Washington Nationals – R.A. Dickey had the benefit of facing the Phillies his last time out, and proceeded to put up his best start of the season with eight strikeouts in seven innings with only three hits, no walks, and one run. Now he’ll face the Nationals, who are the complete opposite of the Phillies. If you’re new to DFS, the Nationals hit the ball well; the Phillies do not.
Prior to that last start, over Dickey’s last six starts, Dickey had a 13:21 K:B ratio in 35.2 innings while giving up 23 earned runs. The Nationals opened with the second highest team total on the slate at 5.7 runs, and it will be 85 degrees with the wind blowing out. In case you didn’t notice, the Nationals scored 11 runs on Monday in similar conditions – against a better starting pitcher.
There are other spots to stack on this slate, but I think this will be a day when I roster the most possible upside at every position without going overboard with stacking. If I see anything else that jumps out during the afternoon, I’ll be sure to provide an update.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
Go to Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.