We are finally a few weeks into the season which means we’ve got data to mine! We’re starting to see trends and patterns, which allows us to make more informed and more optimal decisions. Let’s see where that leads us for Tuesday’s MLB DFS Slate. As always, prices are DraftKings unless otherwise noted and players discussed will be for the main evening slate.
Today I am going to add a section to the normal layout – we’ll call it the Bargain Bin. This will not be the same as on many sites with players in this section being the cheapies of the day. Instead, I’ll list a few of the biggest discrepancies in salary between the two main sites: FanDuel and DraftKings.
Pitchers to Target
Luis Severino – Severino is underpriced in my opinion. He has been excellent through two starts, with a 17:2 K:BB ratio in 12 innings. The White Sox have the fifth highest strikeout percentage to right-handed pitchers and the absolute lowest walk rate at only 6.1%. This bodes well for Severino in both regards. Baseball is hard to predict, but this is one of the better combinations of price and upside I’ve seen so far this season. Hopefully the large slate keeps his ownership numbers in check.
Michael Fulmer – Fulmer gets the luxury of facing the Rays in Tampa Bay. The Rays are striking out a league leading 28.4% to right-handed pitchers. Fulmer, on the other hand, is off to a great start in his sophomore campaign. Through 12 innings he has struck out 11 batters while only giving up eight total hits. Pairing Fulmer and Severino leaves you an average of $4,325 to spend on each bat, which will go a long way!
Stacks to Target
Baltimore Orioles – The Orioles face off against the aging Bronson Arroyo, so this shouldn’t be a big surprise here. Arroyo has pitched 10 innings, giving up 11 runs, while only striking out five batters. To make things worse, he is pitching at home, where the ball park will not be working in his favor. We can’t really take this too much into account because it’s such a small sample size, but Arroyo has given up 10 hits and three home runs against 27 right-handed batters faced so far.
New York Mets – Zach Eflin was horrible last year, and he’ll be called up to face the Mets in place of the injured Clay Buchholz. Anytime someone is replacing Buchholz you have to wonder how good he can really be. During his rookie year in the majors, Eflin was absolute horrible against left handers, giving up an average of 2.76 home runs and striking out and walking 6.8% of batters equally.
The weirdest part of those numbers is that his BABIP was exceptionally low at .248 (league average is typically around .300). If this starts to regress to the mean… LOOK OUT! You can really play any Met player, but I love the lefties, especially Michael Conforto (if he starts). He is smashing the ball so far this season. Among players to play in more than five games, Conforto leads the slate with an average batted ball distance of 271 feet.
Batters to Target
Eric Thames – Just play the guy already. Hopefully you’ve been riding the Thames train with me the past few days. He has now hit a home run in five straight games and doesn’t appear ready to slow down any time soon. Many people may use the excuse of him facing a same handed pitcher to stay away from him, but he’s hit two homers in six plate appearances against lefties this year. I’m fully aware that can’t be used to make the decision, but it shows what he can do against a lefty when he is hot, and he’s as hot as anyone right now.
Nelson Cruz – The flow chart usually goes like this. Is Nelson Cruz facing a left-handed pitcher? Yes. Play Nelson Cruz! Today he faced Wei-Yin Chen who gave up nearly 1.8 HR/9 last season. Cruz got off to a slow start, but he has hit a homer in two of his last four games and scored double digits in all four.
Notable salary differences between FanDuel and DraftKings. FanDuel is typically lower due to total salary and roster spots
- Mitch Moreland – $2,900 DK vs. $3,600 FD – Anytime we have a cheaper price on DraftKings, we need to take note. Something this big is substantial. Moreland for $2,900 is a steal.
- Nomar Mazara – $3,500 DK vs. $3,900 FD – DraftKings continues to suppress Mazara’s salary. He has been a top-20 offensive fantasy contributor this year, but there are 120 guys priced higher than him on this slate. Take advantage now.
- Chris Davis – $3,300 FD vs $4,700 DK – Davis is an excellent play on FanDuel against a right-handed pitcher in a good hitters environment.
- Jose Bautista – $3,300 FD vs $4,600 DK – He has been in a slump, but sooner or later he’ll break out. At $3,300, you can afford to risk it.
Best of luck to everyone!
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @mrclutchdfs
Go to Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.