It is Wild Card weekend, which is one of the most fun weekends of the NFL calendar! All fantasy seasons are done, but daily fantasy is still going strong and I have some players to recommend for you. We are heading into the home stretch so let’s get right to it.
If you have any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter at @AssemblyNeil.
Russell Wilson vs. Lions ($7,000) – Detroit has far and away the worst pass defense of any team left in the playoffs. In fact, per DVOA, the Lions had the worst pass defense in the league this year. Regular metrics support those advanced stats as the Lions allowed a whopping 72.7% completion percentage this year, which was worst in the NFL, and 33 touchdowns which was 2nd worst. Russell Wilson should be able to take advantage as he threw for 3+ touchdowns in each of his last 2 home games. He is my QB play of the week.
Brock Osweiler vs. Raiders ($5,100) – I know, I know, Osweiler sucks and he was recently benched. But, on the flip side, he will be extremely low owned and he faces the Raiders defense which ranked 25th in pass defense DVOA. And while Osweiler was not a world beater in relief against the Titans last week, he did manage to pass for 250+ yards for the first time since week 6. I will have some Brock exposure this week.
LeVeon Bell vs. Dolphins ($10,300) – Bell will be extremely highly owned this week, but that does not mean that you need to stay away. The Dolphins ranked 3rd from the bottom in rush yards allowed and tied for last in yards per carry allowed. Bell has a streak of 7 straight games with 100+ total yards and has scored 9 touchdowns in that stretch. He should be good for 30+ DraftKings points this week and forms a solid base for your lineup.
Bang for your Buck
Latavius Murray vs. Texans ($5,000) – Murray’s usage was down in week 17, but he had double-digit touches in every other game this year. With Derek Carr (and Matt McGloin) out of the lineup, the Raiders should be running the ball a ton this week, and Houston’s rush defense was very average ranking 17th in DVOA. I like Murray this week.
Paul Perkins vs. Packers ($4,100) – The Packers were the top rush defense in the NFL for the first few weeks of the season, but they have fallen all the way to 14th in DVOA by season’s end. Perkins has been picking it up recently for the Giants as he has 15+ touches in 3 of the G-Men’s last 4 games and posted the first 100 yard rushing day of his career last week.
DeAndre Washington vs. Texans ($3,300) – As I noted in the Latavius Murray section above, his usage was down in week 17, and Washington was the beneficiary with 50+ yards in his last 2 games. Washington is a cheap option this week, and if you think that his usage will remain good, he is an excellent value play.
Odell Beckham Jr. vs. Packers ($9,100) – The Packers have struggled against #1 receivers ranking 28th in DVOA versus the other team’s top target. OBJ has 7+ targets in every game this year and might be the best #1 receiver in the game. He should get 12+ targets and produce nicely.
Doug Baldwin vs. Lions ($7,000) – As mentioned above, the Lions rank 32nd in pass defense DVOA and are ranked 26th in DVOA versus #1 receivers. Baldwin has been somewhat up and down this season, but with the Seahawks’ running game struggling, Baldwin should get plenty of opportunity which should equal plenty of production.
Bang for your Buck
Jarvis Landry vs. Steelers ($5,100) – I expect the Dolphins to be in catch-up mode this game and will need to throw the ball to stay in the game. Landry ranked 7th in the NFL in catches, 10th in receiving yards and 17th in targets. I don’t get this bargain basement price. He will be in 75+% of my lineups.
Marvin Jones Jr. vs. Seahawks ($4,100) – The Lions are another team I expect to be in catch-up mode, and Jones should get more than a couple of looks deep. While he slowed toward the end of the season, Jones had 5+ targets in all but 1 game this year and his usage went up last week with 9 targets and 76 yards. He should more than make value at this price.
Paul Richardson vs. Lions ($3,400) – Since Tyler Lockett went down in week 16, Richardson has been more of a factor in the Seahawks’ passing game with 5+ targets and 40+ yards each game. I have said it twice but I will say it again – the Lions pass defense is terrible. Richardson is very much in play.
Jimmy Graham vs. Lions ($5,300) – Should I tell you that the Lions pass defense is bad again? OK – I won’t do it. But I can tell you that the Lions are bad versus the tight end, right? In fact, Detroit ranks 29th in DVOA versus tight ends allowing 7.4 catches and 60.7 yards per game to the position this year. If you have enough budget for Graham, get him in your lineups.
Bang for your Buck
Jared Cook vs. Giants ($3,600) – Cook has been a big factor in the Packers offense recently, and Aaron Rodgers has given him credit for much of the Packers’ offensive turnaround. Cook has 5+ targets and 55+ yards in 2 of his last 3 games and should have a nice outing versus the Giants.
Bang for your buck
Seahawks vs. Lions ($3,700) – Matthew Stafford has been more turnover prone since his finger injury, and he faces a tough defense in Seattle. The Seahawks have 9+ fantasy points in 2 of their last 3 games and should make it 3 of 4 this week.
Raiders vs. Texans ($3,000) – For some reason, the Raiders, facing Brock Osweiler and the woeful Texans offense are the 3rd cheapest D on the slate. I think they will be 50% owned, but I will have plenty of exposure.
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