With five weeks pretty much in the books most teams know where they stand. The virtual locks for the playoffs (5-0 or 4-1), the in the hunt (3-2), the I have a shot but running out of bad weeks I can have (2-3), and the I need a prayer (1-4, 0-5).
The time to prey on owners in the final group is now. They will be desperate to get anything to help their season. Taking a loss on a trade might be a good option for them if it means they can dodge a bye week.
Hopefully you aren’t in that group yourself, but you also need to take note of that. If you are in a pinch and have a player on a bye you might have to trade at a slight loss to avoid the bye and give yourself a chance to win week in and week out. Just don’t go trading Mike Evans for Michael Crabtree. If you can, target some of the players that have already had their bye weeks on teams like the Saints, Packers, and Lions.
Happy trading this week, and don’t forget to give me a follow on Twitter for Sunday morning active and inactive players as well as in-game injury news and anything else football related. Follow @TheSportsGuy40
RB – Lamar Miller
This was a really tough matchup for Miller so the disappointing game isn’t a huge surprise. Up until this week the workload had been there. I would expect them to get him the 20-touch workload most weeks. The yards per carry might suffer, but in better matchups more often than not he should end up near 90-100 total yards. The touchdown drought will end sometime soon.
Potential buy-low offer: Larry Fitzgerald for Miller
RB – Jerick McKinnon
He got off to a hot start in week five, but failed to find running room after the half. The best news you can take from this game is that he had 20 carries, and while he didn’t score he did get a carry from the two-yard line before Asiata came in to finish it off. I think the workload will be there and he will score from time to time. He is a low-end second running back
Potential buy-low offer: DeSean Jackson for McKinnon
RB – Doug Martin
The Buccaneers are going on a bye this week, and Martin should come out of the bye as the starting running back. Sims showed little reason that Martin should lose significant, or any, touches, so Martin should come back and take his normal role. You should be able to buy at a solid price again this week with a 100% guarantee that his owner won’t be able to start him next week.
Potential buy-low offer: Sterling Shepard for Martin
WR – John Brown
Brown is the number two in Arizona now. Michael Floyd’s snaps have fallen dramatically and Carson Palmer should be out of the concussion protocol by next week. Brown will be on the field a lot and should benefit. People might not believe in him with only one great week. Pounce on that and get Brown who should be a high-end third running back.
Potential buy-low offer: Terrance West for Brown
WR – Jarvis Landry
Landry is never going to be exciting. He is a poor man’s Julian Edelman – lots of targets and not going to score a lot of touchdowns. The Dolphins barely ran any plays in this game. It resulted in just 18 attempts for Tannehill and three targets for Landry. Take this low target total as an anomaly. Landry will be a solid high-end flex, although with a low floor.
Potential buy-low offer: Matt Jones for Landry
RB – Theo Riddick
It was only Riddick and Zenner active in the Lions’ backfield this week. They will add someone this week or Washington will be back. Riddick did almost all of his damage through the air, which isn’t out of the ordinary. What isn’t normal was him finding the end zone twice. Riddick is a borderline flex option in standard leagues and a solid second running back in PPR. I am not sure if you will really be able to sell high after this performance, but it doesn’t hurt to try.
Potential sell-high offer: Riddick for Sterling Shepard
RB – Melvin Gordon
I typically like to avoid writing a name in this often, but sometimes there aren’t a ton of options and it really becomes more of a sell or buy than before. Gordon has seven touchdowns through five weeks and at least one in every game. He is not going to be a top-three back at the end of the season. He will end up with a 70-yard floor every week and a 50/50 chance to score, but I think you can get a lot better than that if you try to trade him.
Potential sell-high offer: Gordon for A.J. Green
WR – T.Y. Hilton
I hate writing about the same person two weeks in a row, but Hilton had another huge week. Through five games Andrew Luck has been sacked 19 times, including today’s five. Like I said last week, Luck isn’t going to last with that beating. Once Luck is out Hilton goes back to what he was last season, irrelevant. If you keep Hilton you are crossing your fingers that Luck is going to stay healthy.
Potential sell-high offer: Hilton for Carlos Hyde
RB – Carlos Hyde
No matter what he is going to be involved in the offense. Blowout or close game, he gets the touches. If they are inside the 10 he is going to get a chance or two to find the end zone. Hyde is an RB1 that very few people really seem to have faith in.
Potential buy-high offer: Todd Gurley for Carlos Hyde
RB – Matt Forte
He was a buy-high after week one, but things have changed a lot since then. He has been beat up and is rapidly losing work to Bilal Powell. Forte still has some name value and some season long numbers that you might be able to use to your advantage in a trade.
Potential sell-low offer: Forte for Doug Martin
RB – C.J. Anderson
After a huge first week Anderson has fallen off a bit failing to rush for 50 yards in three straight games. His upcoming schedule has a few nice matchups, and he gets a short week this week that tends to benefit higher end running backs. The downside is this might be quietly becoming a running back by committee backfield. Anderson had 62 yards on 14 touches – Booker 59 on 10. Snaps favored Anderson as well, but only 38-27. Booker was in the game early so I don’t know if this was only a result of them being in catchup mode in the fourth, and even if it was I would assume Anderson would be the better option.
Potential sell-low offer: Anderson for Julian Edelman
It’s all about perception
RB – Todd Gurley
Here is a new category; I did do something similar once with Antonio Brown last year. I am not sure what Gurley is. You could call him a sell-high, sell-low, or buy-low right now. It really depends on the perception of your league. Gurley is mostly name value right now. He is an elite talent, but he is stuck in an offense that has a bad line and a horrid passing attack. The touches will always be there, but the yards per carry will be ugly. When in close he is the best bet to score.
It all comes down to this. If you own him and you can get top-eight running back, like second round value, I would sell. I wouldn’t be surprised if his owner is selling low. In that case, if you can buy Gurley as a mid level second running back I would buy all day.
If you’re selling: Gurley for Jordan Howard and Marvin Jones
If you’re buying: Isaiah Crowell and Brandin Cooks for Gurley
Looking for additional buy/sell trade advice or waiver wire pick-ups, head on over to Fantasy Rundown.
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