Happy Friday! As many of you have likely seen or heard already, one of our best broadcasters here in Canada, Elliotte Friedman, blew the call in the 200m Individual Medley, mistaking Ryan Lochte for Michael Phelps and thinking that Lochte won the Olympic race. I kind of feel like Friedman this morning, as my advice to you yesterday was essentially the opposite of what happened. Bad days will happen, but we have to stick with the grind that is daily fantasy. I will do better for you all (and for myself) today. Let’s see what we came up with.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and ESPN. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Adrian Beltre vs. Anibal Sanchez – 7/10 with 2 doubles
- Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Chris Archer – 18/28 with a double, a homer and 4 walks
- Logan Forsythe vs. Carston Charles Sabathia – 8/18 with 4 doubles and 2 homers
- Evan Longoria vs. CC Sabathia – 26/67 with 9 doubles, 6 homers and 13 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Rays vs. CC Sabathia – In 2015 and early in the 2016 season, one of my favorite money winning plays was to play the Rays against left-handed pitching as they could not hit righties, but were dynamite versus left-handers. Recently however, the Rays have gone cold against lefties, and are now only 15th in OPS versus southpaws. However, their current squad has enjoyed great success against CC with a .370/.457/.742 collective line. CC has also really struggled in the 2nd half as his K/9 is down to 5.70, his BB/9 is up to 3.90, and his K-Rate is an abysmal 14.1%, leading to a 5.25 2nd half xFIP. I like the Rays for a resurgent performance tonight.
- Diamondbacks vs. David Price – Most people will be on the other side of this game as the Red Sox face Patrick Corbin, but I love the DBacks today. Arizona leads the majors in several categories against southpaws, ranking first in OPS at .819, slugging percentage at .479 and wOBA at .348. Usually I don’t like to target aces, but Price has been anything but this year, and it doesn’t look like a fluke. Prior to 2016, Price’s career high hard contact rate was 28.6%. This year he is obliterating that number, allowing hard contact an astounding 35.5% of the time. The DBacks are not the team to cure what ails Price. I like Arizona’s bats today.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Yordano Ventura vs. Twins – Yordano is inconsistent to say the least. and the Twins have been hot with the bats. That having been said, Ventura has been much better recently, allowing 3 earned runs or less in 6 consecutive starts and posting a Game Score of 57 or more in 4 of those 6 games. Yordano also likes to face the Twins as the current Minnesota roster has a .217/.349/.301 collective line against him. In addition, in his last two starts against Minnesota, Ventura has gone 12 innings allowing only 6 hits and 3 runs while striking out 17 (and, of course, he also walked 9 batters). Ventura is a good GPP play today.
- Stephen Strasburg vs. Braves – Thus far I have been recommending a lot of risky plays, so I will go with one chalk play as well. Atlanta has a very low .293 wOBA against righties and ranks last in the NL in OPS on the road at .676. Strasburg will continue his Cy Young push tonight trying to improve his already impressive league rankings – 7th in ERA, 6th in WAR, 4th in Ks, 1st in wins, 4th in FIP and 3rd in K/9. He should be dominant tonight.
Weather to Target or Avoid:
NOTE: There is the possibility of bad weather in many places tonight, and DFS meteorologist Kevin Roth (@kevinrothwx) is a must follow. I am not joking when I say that if you don’t follow Kevin Roth on Twitter, don’t bother playing tonight.
- Cardinals at Cubs – chance of rain
- Rockies at Phillies – chance of rain
- Braves at Nationals – chance of rain
- Diamondbacks at Red Sox – 10 MPH wind blowing out
- Angels at Indians – chance of rain
- Tigers at Rangers – chance of rain
- Royals at Twins – chance of rain
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Marcell Ozuna vs.Carlos Rodon – Ozuna continues his assault on lefties this season with a .431 wOBA and 173 wRC+.
- Mike Napoli vs. Tyler Skaggs – Napoli has always been great against lefties, and has been so again this year with a .410 wOBA and 162 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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