Hello all! I know you all love my humble brags (or not), but I was excited to look at the Rotogrinders rankings yesterday, to see that I cracked the top 600 (out of 13,152) in their Flyweight rankings. Hopefully I can make it in to the top 500 before the end of the MLB season.
As for today, there is a split slate of games with three games on the early slate and a much bigger 12 game slate in the evening. Once again, there are some aces with tough match-ups (Sale vs Detroit, Hamels vs Baltimore), so we’ll have to try to find value where we can. Let’s see what we come up with today.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and espn. Here are your quick hits of the day.
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- David Ortiz vs. Hisashi Iwakuma – 5/10 with 3 homers, a double and 2 walks
- Seth Smith vs. Rick Porcello – 9/16 with 4 doubles and a walk
- Kennys Vargas vs. Trevor Bauer – 7/13 with 2 doubles and a homer
- Victor Martinez vs. Chris Sale – 18/36 with 3 doubles, 4 homers and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Dodgers at Rockies – Coors Field alert! This should be another high scoring game.
- Cardinals vs. Cody Reed – First the good news for Reed and Reds fans – Reed is very unlucky to have a 7+ ERA this season as his BABIP allowed is sky high at .367. His strand rate is artificially low at 57.7%, and his HR/FB rate is at a ridiculous 32.3%. The bad news: he is allowing hard contact at a ridiculous 40.7%, which is leading to some of those numbers. Reed has also allowed a .408 wOBA to right-handed batters and has had a game score over 50 in only one start – and that was against the weak Braves offense. The Cards have scuffled a bit against lefties over the year, but are 9th in slugging over the last 7 games. I like them to do some damage tonight.
- Mets vs. Chad Green – Although in an admittedly tiny sample size, Green has allowed a .667 slugging percentage to lefties this year due to having allowed 5 homers in 46 lefty plate appearances. The Mets can now throw a whole slew of decent left-handed bats at you with Granderson, Walker, Bruce, Loney, Conforto and Nimmo. The Mets will likely be low owned and could surprise with a huge game.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- None! Let’s play Ball!
Pitchers of the Day:
- Michael Fulmer vs. White Sox – Fulmer is priced in the 2nd tier of pitchers despite pitching like an ace all year. He has been especially potent at home where his ERA sits at 1.42 and his wOBA allowed at .219. The White Sox have a mediocre .302 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers. I like Fulmer to exceed value today.
- Edinson Volquez vs. Rays – I am not a big Volquez fan, but he is priced at a reasonable $7,700 on DraftKings and faces the awful Rays offense. Tampa is last in the AL in batting average versus righties with a .231 mark and strike out at a 24.3% rate. Volquez is not a high strikeout guy, but I see his line something along the lines of 7 IP 6 HA 2 ER 2 BB 6 K. This is much more than enough to make value at his salary.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Matt Kemp vs. Jeff Locke – Has hit lefties well again this year with a .415 wOBA and 167 wRC+.
- Stephen Piscotty vs. Cody Reed – Loves to see southpaws as he sports a .460 wOBA and 194 wRC+ against lefties.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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