After a perfect attendance record, I missed my first day of writing (other than scheduled vacation) in the last 2 years yesterday. Usually I wake up at 6 a.m. on weekdays and do some research and write this article – but yesterday my wife and kids thought they were doing me a favor by letting me sleep until 8:15. In truth, I had a huge mandate with a tight deadline at work due at noon, so I threw some clothes on and ran into the office without having time to write.
I will make it up to you all today. There are some really interesting pitchers going today, including Jose Fernandez and Jacob deGrom facing off, and Max Scherzer and David Price with excellent match-ups. Finding hitting value will be key today so look for platoon splits. This might also be a great day to target Coors hitters if you like some of the cheaper pitchers (Drew Smyly only $5,900 versus the A’s on DraftKings – Tyler Glasnow only $4,600 versus the Phillies on FanDuel), because most people will be paying up for pitching and won’t be able to afford the Coors bats. Let’s see what we can do today.
As always, all stats are courtesy of rotowire, rotogrinders, fangraphs, baseball-reference and espn.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Adam Jones vs, Josh Tomlin – 8/15 with 4 doubles and a homer
- Victor Martinez vs. Chris Sale – 18/36 with 4 homers, 3 doubles and 3 walks
- Giancarlo Stanton vs. Jacob deGrom – 4/12 with 2 homers, a double and 3 walks
- David Ortiz vs. Ricky Nolasco – 4/13 with 3 homers and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Braves at Rockies – Coors Field Alert!!
- Red Sox vs. Ricky Nolasco – Ricky Nolasco allows a .369 wOBA to right-handed hitters, and the Red Sox have some great righty bats in their lineup with Betts (assuming he plays), Pedroia and Hanley Ramirez. Of course, I wouldn’t shy away from using David Ortiz or Jackie Bradley either. The Red Sox as a team have a .359 wOBA versus right-handed pitchers and a .195 ISO. They could (should?) score in double digits today.
- Orioles vs. Josh Tomlin – This is a bit of a sneaky stack as Tomlin has a very respectable 3.34 ERA on the season. However, peel that onion and it starts to smell a little bit as his SIERA is 4.28 and his xFIP is 4.25. Tomlin’s greatest strength is his command as he doesn’t walk anyone, but his 33.0% hard contact rate coupled with only 6.02 K/9 is not likely to play well against a huge mashing team like the Orioles. The O’s have a .342 wOBA and .195 ISO versus right-handed pitching. They should roll today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Twins at Red Sox – chance of rain
- Rays at A’s – 13 MPH wind blowing out
- Giants at Yankees – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Rangers at Royals – 10 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Max Scherzer vs. Padres – There are some amazing pitching options today, including Jose Fernandez against the Mets and David Price against the Twins, but Scherzer versus the Padres is the best of the bunch. I will definitely be making a DraftKings lineup with both Scherzer and Fernandez – should be some interesting hitters in that one. The Padres strike out at an astonishingly high 24.6% rate against righties and Scherzer has a career high 32.3% K-Rate this year with a career high 11.43 K/9. In his last start versus San Diego on June 18 he went 6 innings allowing 4 hits 1 run with 10 strikeouts – I actually think that is the floor here. I love Scherzer today.
- Tyler Glasnow vs. Phillies – This is a decent play on DraftKings but an excellent one on FanDuel as Glasnow’s price is $7,800 on DK but he is the lowest priced pitcher on FD at $4,600. The Phillies are terrible against right-handed pitchers with a .295 wOBA (they are actually terrible against all pitchers – but I digress). Glasnow is a top prospect who has struck out more than 10 batters per 9 innings every year in the minors and has a 1.94 ERA at AAA this year. In his first MLB start he allowed 4 runs over 5.1 innings, but allowed only 5 base runners. And he faced a much tougher challenge in the Cardinals. I like Glasnow for a decent game today which should be more than enough to make value.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Eugenio Suarez vs. Robbie Ray – I actually didn’t realize the splits here as Suarez has really struggled against righties (64 wRC+) but has mashed lefties with a .401 wOBA and 151 wRC+.
- Jake Smolinski vs. Drew Smyly – Smolinski has absolutely obliterated lefties this year with a .503 wOBA and 226 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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