Good day all. It should be yet another great day for baseball as we have a true split slate with 8 afternoon games and 7 evening games. I don’t really love the pitching options today, so I will likely be using my favorite hitters while finding value on the mound.
Yesterday, I took a calculated risk that did not pay off. My projection model told me that Carlos Martinez was by far the best pitcher to play yesterday, so I had him in about 2/3 of my lineups despite the chance of rain in St. Louis. I was following the weather forecast which made it seem like the rain wouldn’t start for a few hours after game time. In fact, it was not raining at the time of the first pitch, but for some reason they delayed the game waiting for the rain and then postponed it. That killed most of my lineups. Let’s see if we can do better today.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Ben Zobrist vs. Bartolo Colon – 8/16 with 4 homers, a double and 4 walks
- JJ Hardy vs. Michael Pineda – 7/15 with 3 homers and a walk
- Buster Posey vs. Drew Pomeranz – 6/13 with 2 homers and 2 walks
- Jay Bruce vs. Lucas Harrell – 6/13 with 2 doubles, a homer and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Rays at Rockies – Coors Field Alert!!
- Blue Jays vs. Patrick Corbin – Corbin has really been struggling this year, allowing 38.8% hard contact on the season. The Blue Jays, who are 3rd in runs scored in July, are not the team he wants to see. Corbin’s K-rate is down to 16.9% and he allows a .345 wOBA to right-handed batters. The Blue Jays can still hit lefties with their righty heavy lineup. I like Donaldson, Encarnacion and the boys for a big game.
- Nationals vs. Bud Norris – Norris has been dynamite against right-handed hitters this year and is a great play against teams like the Padres or the Tigers who are very righty heavy. Against left-handed bats, however, he allows a .380 wOBA. The Nationals have two of the best lefty hitters around in Daniel Murphy and Bryce Harper and can trot out a bunch more lefties in Ben Revere, Clint Robinson, Stephen Drew and Danny Espinosa. I can’t see Norris navigating through this order and I love the Nationals today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Indians at Royals – 11 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Daniel Mengden vs. Astros – Mengden’s season numbers don’t look all that pretty with his 5.54 ERA, but he has been unlucky with a strand rate of 63.2%, making his xFIP a more palpable 4.26. Mengden’s strikeout totals tell the tale of a pitcher who is bound to improve as his K/9 is a solid 9.0 while his K-rate is 22.2%. The Astros strike out a ton with their 24.3% K-rate against right-handed pitchers. I think Mengden has a solid performance with a bunch of strikeouts for a decent price.
- Wei-Yin Chen vs. Phillies – Chen is not a high upside play with his low strikeout percentage, but he does get a really favorable match-up against the Phils. Philadelphia has an abysmal .272 wOBA against left-handed hurlers this year and are last in MLB with a .628 OPS against southpaws. Chen is only $6,800 on DraftKings and should easily make value.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Ryan Braun vs. Jeff Locke – Braun is his usual lefty killing self this year with a .422 wOBA and 164 wRC+
- Josh Donaldson vs. Patrick Corbin – Donaldson is a top hitter against lefties with a .438 wOBA and 177 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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