Over the next 6 weeks, the Fantasy Assembly’s greatest fantasy football minds will be coming together to produce our 2016 consolidated rankings. Join Andy Germani, Tommy Landseadel and Joe Mica as they help you prepare for your rapidly approaching football drafts.
We are getting the ball rolling today with the quarterback position. There are many different theories and strategies for drafting your QB. Some like to reach and lock up that elite signal caller early, while others like to load up on skill position players and take the best valued QB in the later rounds. Quarterbacks are the top scorers in most scoring formats, but because they are one of the easier positions to find, they are generally less valuable than running backs and wide receivers in drafts. Remember though, the more quarterbacks that start in your league, the more valuable those top options become. You don’t want to be stuck relying on RG III or Alex Smith.
There is no right or wrong way to build your team, but hopefully the analysis found here will provide insight that will help you discover hidden value on draft day.
All of our rankings assume standard scoring:
- 6 points for TDs
- 1 point for 10 yards rushing/receiving
- 1 point for 25 yards passing – no PPR
Without further ado, let’s check out the ranks!
1. Which QB are you most willing to reach for during your draft?
Andy: With this crop of quarterbacks I can’t see myself reaching for anyone. I might try to grab Tom Brady earlier even with the suspension. If you grab him as a top-five quarterback you can easily pair him with a Andy Dalton or something like that in the later rounds for a few weeks.
Joe: Maybe it’s crazy to put a 37-year-old QB in the top spot? But over the last 3 seasons no other active QB has averaged more yards per game. During those same 3 seasons no other active QB averages more TD passes than Drew Brees either (36.3). Even his 2015 per-game yardage numbers were better than his three-year average! Until he shows signs of slowing down, Brees is a “Big Easy” consistent fantasy choice.
Tommy: I will never reach for a quarterback. This is the one position that is 100% about value. If those around you are reaching to get the top options, try to resist joining the chase. It may not seem like it, but there will be quality options later. If your league mates are ignoring the QB position early, then grabbing a top signal caller in rounds 3-5 makes a lot of sense. Just don’t be the guy to draft Andrew Luck in round 2 because the person in front of you reached for Cam. You can find better value later.
Note: if you play in a 2 QB league, ignore everything I just wrote.
2. Which QB will you be looking to avoid this season?
Andy: I am pretty much avoiding any of the top guys like Cam Newton, Aaron Rodgers, and Andrew Luck. I can’t spend a pick in the first three rounds on a guy like that when there is so much depth at the position. In a two quarterback league I still might avoid those guys.
Joe: After hurting his collarbone, not once, but twice last season, at age 35, Tony Romo’s best years may realistically be behind him. His last full 16-game season was 2012, and it was a great one, but his numbers and health have declined since. Add in the fact that the Cowboys moved up to grab Ezekiel Elliott, and bolstered the RB depth with Alfred Morris, which to me is a sign that Dallas is moving more towards the run game and ball control.
Tommy: There is nobody I want to specifically avoid, but there are a couple I am lower on than most. Marcus Mariota is a good player, but I see a lot of first and second down handoffs in his future. He will struggle to see enough volume to be a reliable fantasy option. Mariota is like a rich man’s Teddy Bridgewater, at least for this season. Matthew Stafford is the other. He is inconsistent on a good day and just lost one of the best wide receivers to ever play. Some are still high on him, but it is difficult for me to envision fantasy success for Stafford.
3. Which mid-round pick do you see producing the biggest profit?
Andy: As of now Tom Brady is going around the 70th pick according to Fantasy Pros. He is going to have another great season whenever he comes back from suspension.
Joe: Philip Rivers gets no love. In early July, ADP had him ranked as the 11th QB. Yet over the last three seasons, only 5 QB have averaged more TD per season (with all 5 QB averaging more than 30 TD per season). In addition only 6 QB average more yards per-game (including rush yards) than Rivers’ 286.4 ypg. These are some reliable fantasy numbers fringing on elite status still available in the middle of the draft.
Tommy: The answer has to be Tom Brady right? Missing 4 games is a lot, but the price tag looks right for the man who was the #2 QB last season and gets to throw to football’s most dominant player (Gronk). In the non-Brady division, Philip Rivers and Eli Manning both make quality options in high volume passing offenses.
4. Who are your favorite end-draft picks to round out your roster with?
Andy: If I am grabbing a second quarterback I never go safe, unless it’s a short-term Brady replacement. Later on I want pure upside with guys like Marcus Mariota, Robert Griffin, or Tyron Taylor. Taylor comes with the highest price tag so he is more likely to be my number one quarterback if I waited a long time than my number two to back up my primary option.
Joe: Some fantasy owners may turn a cold shoulder to Matt Ryan. Early July ADP has him going as a back-up in the 16 spot. A glance at his 2015 numbers may be adding to his cool value, but Matty Ice still averaged over 290 yards per-game, which is a fraction off his 3-year average of 293. What hurt more was that his TD numbers fell and his interceptions went up. Late in the draft there are far more riskier options than a QB who’s tossing passes to Julio Jones and newest veteran teammate Mohamed Sanu.
Tommy: In most formats, I only draft 1 QB. Backups are unnecessary unless you play in an unusually large league. Quality bye week replacements always exist in standard formats. If I am taking a stab at a QB2, however, I want upside. Young players like Jameis Winston and Derek Carr offer exactly that.
Up Next: the top 50 Running Backs for 2016
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