Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 30
Beware of sharks! Something that I noticed last season in daily fantasy baseball was that the game was much easier to beat earlier in the season. In April and May, many new players are just getting started in DFS baseball, and guys with more experience can take advantage of the steep learning curve for these new players and cash more easily in both GPPs and cash games.
As the calendar gets to July, the newbies either have learned the game and are better players, or they have lost money and have moved on to other hobbies. I say this because yesterday in the early slate, I min-cashed with a 132.35 point lineup on DraftKings and in the evening slate I had a lineup that scored 132.30 that missed finishing in the money. And yesterday evening’s slate had no team score double-digit runs, so it is not like the chalk went off.
Earlier in the season, 120 points was almost always good enough to finish in the money in a tournament. All this to say, be sure to study if you want to finish in the money from this point forward.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Joey Votto vs. Gio Gonzalez – 6/15 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and 3 walks
- Brandon Moss vs. Chris Young – 5/19 with 4 homers and 2 walks
- Rajai Davis vs. R.A. Dickey – 5/11 with a double, a triple and a walk
- Robinson Cano vs. Chris Tillman – 14/34 with a double, 2 homers and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Marlins vs. Mike Foltyniewicz – Foltyniewicz cannot get lefties out as evidenced by his .419 wOBA allowed to left-handed bats this year, which is not much worse than his career mark of .412. Any time a team can trot out at least 4 lefties against Folty it is a good play, and the Marlins have some solid left-handed bats in Christian Yelich, Justin Bour, Derek Dietrich and Ichiro Suzuki. I would play all these guys plus maybe Giancarlo Stanton for a fun Marlins stack.
- Indians vs. R.A. Dickey – Dickey is really struggling this year as this is the first time since he became a knuckle-baller that his hard contact rate is over 30%. In his best seasons he allowed 19.3% and 21.5% hard contact. The Indians are the hottest team in baseball and have scored an impressive 44 runs over their last 6 games. Dickey and his 4.80 SIERA is not likely to slow them down.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Royals at Cardinals – Chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- John Lackey vs. Mets – The Mets cannot hit these days as their .611 OPS over the last week is easily the worst in baseball. Lackey is having a break-out season, if such a thing is possible for a 15 year veteran, and his K-Rate sits at 26.4% which is comfortably a career high. The Mets have a 22.8% K-rate versus righties, so Lackey should limit runs and rack up some Ks. He isn’t even all that expensive on the major sites. No reason not to play Lackey today.
- Jake Odorizzi vs. Tigers – This is a much riskier play and thus only advisable in tournaments, but Odorizzi is pretty cheap on the major DFS sites today and has very good strikeout potential in this game. Odorizzi’s 8.36 K/9 and 22.6% K-rate are a tick above average, and Detroit has a poor 22.4% K-rate versus right-handed pitchers. Odorizzi also likes home cooking as his wOBA allowed sits at .284 and his ERA at 3.04 in the friendly confines of Tropicana Field. I’ll have 50% exposure to Odorizzi in tournaments tonight.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Christian Yelich vs. Mike Foltyniewicz – As I have outlined above, Folty struggles with left-handed hitters and Yelich has a very solid .389 wOBA and 145 wRC+ versus righties.
- Jayson Werth vs. Brandon Finnegan – Werth should probably be a platoon hitter these days. He has a mediocre .273 wOBA and 66 wRC+ against righties but is mashing lefties with a .478 wOBA and 205 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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