Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 28
I did something weird yesterday and it worked out for the best. As I have outlined before, I am very disciplined about my bankroll and only play between $20-25 a day when I play daily fantasy. This allows me to sustain my roll through inevitable losing streaks and variance. Well, yesterday I found a $50 gift card in my wallet that I got from my bosses at Christmas and that I never used. I decided that I would deposit $27 of that $50 on DraftKings and play one lineup in a higher stakes game.
For my lineup I used a Cubs stack and took their top 5 lineup spots: Zobrist, Heyward, Bryant, Rizzo and W Contreras. Then I picked my top pitcher who was Jake Arrieta. After that, I slotted in a couple of punts from the Rays who I thought would do well against Eduardo Rodriguez, Jennings at OF and Nick Franklin at SS. Next I slotted in my 2nd pitcher, Collin McHugh. Finally I used Brandon Nimmo against Joe Ross – who struggles against lefties. This line-up went off, and my hitters scored over 160 points!! Unfortunately my pitchers stunk, but I still ended up in 258th out of 5,852 and made $80 ($53 profit) with this lineup. If only Jake Arrieta (and Collin McHugh) would have come through I could have had a really big score.
Oh well! It was still a fun, and a nice profit. It’s back to the low stakes today! Let’s see if we can have some more success.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Giancarlo Stanton vs. Mike Pelfrey – 9/19 with 2 doubles, 2 homers and 4 walks
- Yasmani Grandal vs. Chase Anderson – 3/11 with 3 homers and a walk
- Martin Prado vs. Mike Pelfrey – 10/22 with 5 doubles, a triple, a homer and 3 walks
- Adrian Gonzalez vs. Chase Anderson – 6/13 with a double, a homer and 5 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Blue Jays at Rockies – Coors is always a safe bet for some offense. I really like the Rockies against J.A. Happ today.
- Dodgers vs. Chase Anderson – Anderson combines a below average ground ball rate (37.8%) with a well above-average hard contact allowed (36.4%). This is a recipe for a lot of hits and homers, and Anderson has not disappointed on either front. He has been especially terrible against right-handed bats allowing a .413 wOBA and .502 SLG% on the year. The Dodgers are not a great offense, but their lineup has had 8 homers in only 82 plate appearances against Anderson. I like them for a big night.
- Seattle vs. Jon Niese – Niese has really struggled with right-handed hitters allowing a .386 wOBA and .550 SLG% to opposite handed bats. The Mariners have one of the best righties in the business with Nelson Cruz, and he gets some good help in lefty-mashing from Franklin Gutierrez and Chris Iannetta. Start your M’s with confidence.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Mets at Nationals – Chance of rain
- Cubs at Reds – 11 MPH wind blowing out
- Indians at Braves – chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jose Quintana vs. Twins – The Twins offense is starting to come out of its season long doldrums, but they still struggle against southpaws ranking only 25th in the majors in OPS versus lefties and striking out at a very high 24.5% rate. Quintana has an average 21.1% K-rate, but that should play against this team. And he has handled the Twins well thus far this season, allowing only two earned runs over 13 innings in two starts. I am feeling Jose today.
- Rick Porcello vs. Rays – Porcello is overpriced and the Rays just scored a bunch of runs yesterday, so I feel like his ownership will be under 10%. I would take advantage as the Rays’ K-rate versus right-handed pitchers is a sky-high 24.8% while Porcello’s K-rate is holding steady at 20.8%. While Tampa destroyed Eduardo Rodriguez yesterday, don’t forget that they love facing lefties, against whom they lead the AL in OPS, but they struggle against righties where they have the 3rd lowest OPS in the AL. I think Porcello is in for a good night.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Ian Desmond vs. CC Sabathia – Desmond is hitting everyone, but is especially potent against lefties with a .425 wOBA and 164 wRC+.
- Victor Martinez vs. Adam Conley – V-Mart has become a must start against lefties in the last few years and has a .415 wOBA and 162 wRC+ against southpaws this season.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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