Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 17
Interesting day for yours truly yesterday. I played baseball last night and my team was facing the last place team in our league. We came out completely flat and got pasted 15-4. I figured I would drown in my sorrows by watching some baseball and following my DFS teams. I usually put what I think are my 3 best lineups in the Slider on DraftKings – it didn’t work out last night as my point totals in the Slider yesterday were: 88.25, 47.25 and 34.25. I want to thank the 50 people who scored lower than 34.25 yesterday to allow me to avoid the embarrassment of last place. Just a terrible evening all around for me.
As I always preach though, days like that will happen. You just have to keep trusting the process and be profitable over time. For me, even if I lose out the rest of the season it will be a profitable MLB season. Let’s see if we can do better today.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Chris Davis vs. Aaron Sanchez – 6/10 with 3 homers, a double and 3 walks
- Alex Avila vs. Trevor Bauer – 6/11 with a homer and 2 walks
- Logan Morrison vs. Jeff Samardzija – 4/14 with 2 homers and 5 walks
- Matt Joyce vs. Jake Arrieta – 7/17 with 2 doubles, a homer and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Astros vs. John Lamb – The Astros are a good team to either target or play depending on style of pitcher. When a low strikeout guy like Lamb is on the mound, I am all in on the Astros power bats. Lamb has a minuscule 4.71 K/9 and is walking too many guys with a 3.64 BB/9. He also allows 36.9% hard contact. I am feeling the ‘Stros this evening.
- Mariners vs. Roenis Elias – The Mariners offense is a bit underrated as they rank 5th in road OPS and are only brought down a bit by their spacious home ballpark. They have also been hot as they are 8th in the majors in runs scored in June. Elias has a career walk rate of 3.53 and allows a .334 wOBA to right-handed bats. I like Nelson Cruz, Franklin Gutierrez and friends to take advantage.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- White Sox at Indians – 10 MPH wind blowing in
- Tigers at Royals – 10 MPH wind blowing in
- Angels at A’s – 12 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jeff Samardzija vs. Rays – I like the Rays offense more than most, but there is a good chance that their main star, Evan Longoria, is out another day today. Samardzija has hit a bit of a rough patch recently, but he is still holding right-handed hitters to a .297 wOBA, and the Rays are a righty heavy outfit. Add in a 25.0% K rate by TB versus right-handed pitchers and it could be a nice night for the Shark.
- Matt Shoemaker vs. A’s – Shoemaker has turned into Clayton Kershaw all of a sudden as he has 48 Ks and 1 BB over his last 5 starts. In this ridiculously hot stretch, Shoemaker has struck out over a batter an inning in 4 of the 5 starts and pitched at least 7 innings allowing 2 earned runs or less in 4 of the 5 starts. In addition, Shoemaker faced Oakland in April, before his great run started, and he had his best start of that stretch holding the A’s to only 1 hit over 6 scoreless innings. This could be a monster performance for Shoemaker.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Michael Conforto vs. John Gant – In a very small sample size, Gant has allowed an astronomical .511 wOBA to LHB. Conforto has struggled mightily against lefties but is still smoking righties with a .384 wOBA and 148 wRC+.
- Yasmany Tomas vs. Adam Morgan – Tomas has quietly put together a very nice stretch against left-handed pitchers with a .409 wOBA and 155 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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