Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 16
This looks like another tough slate. There are no true aces on the mound (Verlander is the most expensive option on DraftKings) and there are not that many great hitting match-ups either. Success today is going to take some digging in order to find some diamonds. So let’s start our digging here.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Salvador Perez vs. Justin Verlander – 21/44 with 7 doubles and 2 homers (and the notoriously streaky Perez is white-hot)
- AJ Pierzynski vs. Dan Straily – 4/10 with a double and a homer
- Jonathan Villar vs. Scott Kazmir – 4/12 with a triple, a homer and a walk
- Kendrys Morales vs. Justin Verlander – 12/34 with 4 doubles and 2 homers
Stacks to Target:
- Nationals vs. Erik Johnson – Johnson just does not throw enough strikes, and pitchers of that ilk are good ones to target in daily fantasy. Johnson has a career walk rate of 4.47 and it is not much better this year as it sits at 4.41 BB/9. Aside from control difficulties, Johnson allows a ton of hard contact. His 49.1% hard contact allowed this year comes with a sample size caveat and is sure to fall – for his career, his hard contact allowed is 37.3%. Couple that with a high fly ball rate and the Nats, who have the 7th most runs scored versus RHP on the season, could do some serious damage.
- Yankees vs. Kyle Gibson – Gibson is another fellow who has trouble finding the plate, and he doesn’t miss bats either. His BB/9 and K/9 sit at an identical 4.44 this season. While Gibson’s strand rate of 59.8% is bound to improve, if he doesn’t start controlling the zone his ERA will hover around 5.00 all year. The Yankees don’t have the world’s most potent offense, but they do have a couple of lefties at the top of their order in Ellsbury, Gardner and Beltran (if he plays) who can do damage, and Gibson has allowed a .441 wOBA to LHB on the year.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
None! Let’s play Ball!
Pitchers of the Day:
- Junior Guerra vs. Dodgers – Guerra seemed to be a middle-aged journeyman when the Brewers called him up, but he has become their most effective starting pitcher. He hasn’t faced the toughest competition (all bottom 10 offenses except the Cubs and Cardinals), but he has still gone 6 straight starts allowing 3 ER or less. And the competition does not get tougher today as the Dodgers rank 27th in MLB in OPS versus right-handed pitchers ahead of only the punchless Padres, Braves and Phillies. I like Guerra for another strong start.
- Tanner Roark vs. Padres – The Padres can actually hit lefties a bit, but boy are they terrible against right-handed starters. They are comfortably the lowest in MLB in OPS versus righties with a .642 OPS. They also strike out a ton versus righties with a 24.2% K-rate. And don’t look now, but after not striking guys out at all for the first part of his career, Roark now has a very decent 8.10 K/9. Roark could have more than a K/IP today while holding the Padres to 2 runs or less.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Manny Machado vs. Eduardo Rodriguez – The sample size is tiny but Rodriguez has allowed a .395 wOBA to RHB on the season. Machado is the one Oriole smoking lefties with a .427 wOBA and 171 wRC+.
- Tommy Joseph vs. JA Happ – This is another small sample size alert, but Joseph has been dynamite versus lefties thus far in his young career with a .488 wOBA and 212 wRC+. Let’s see if he can keep up the pace today.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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