Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 14
Today’s lesson is to always trust yourself. Much like all of you, I read other DFS articles to have an idea as to how others will be attacking a slate in addition to doing my own research. Yesterday, everyone I read was touting the Blue Jays against Jerad Eickhoff and they were projected by Vegas to score the most runs on the day. My research told me that the Blue Jays’ righty heavy line-up would struggle against Eickhoff who is elite versus right-handed batters. I did put Eickhoff in 1/8 lineups but also stacked the Blue Jays in two. I regretted the decision almost immediately. Thankfully 3 non-Blue Jay lineups cashed and I was only down a bit on the day, but if I would have had more Eickhoff exposure, it would have been a nice night.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Salvador Perez vs. Josh Tomlin – 13/20 with 6 doubles and a homer
- Dexter Fowler vs. Gio Gonzalez – 8/17 with a double, a triple, a homer, and a walk
- Jason Kipnis vs. Chris Young – 7/17 with 2 doubles, a triple, a homer, and a walk
- Jayson Werth vs. John Lackey – 7/17 with 4 doubles, a homer and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Yankees at Rockies – The Coors Field factor makes its return!
- Cardinals vs. Doug Fister – Fister’s ERA looks tidy at 3.34, but it is greatly aided by a much lower than career norm .262 BABIP allowed and a much higher than normal 80.1% strand rate. The Cardinals lead the National League in OPS versus righties by a wide margin and are tied for 2nd in homers versus righties. I like them today.
- A’s vs. Martin Perez – The A’s showed yesterday what they can do to a soft-tossing lefty and they get another one right away in Perez. Perez allows a .330 wOBA to right-handed batters and Khris Davis and Danny Valencia are hot versus southpaws. The wind is also blowing out again. This could be a good, low-owned, cheap source for runs again.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Rangers at A’s – 16 MPH wind blowing out
- Tigers at White Sox – rain possibility
Pitchers of the Day:
- Brandon Finnegan vs. Braves – Finnegan stymied the Cardinals offense his last time out and now gets a much easier challenge versus the Braves who rank last in OPS versus lefties by a mile with a .577 number and strike out 23.1% of the time versus southpaws. Finnegan is capable of getting some strikeouts and should be great bang for buck today.
- David Price vs. Orioles – Since I recently discovered the extent of the Orioles’ struggles versus southpaws, I have been playing lefties against them to pretty good success. Price has settled down and is once again an elite pitcher while the Orioles rank 2nd to last in the AL in OPS versus lefties. Price is only the 5th most expensive pitcher on the slate on DraftKings (but 2nd most pricey on FanDuel), and the Orioles offensive reputation will likely keep people away. I like this as a good play to differentiate yourself.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Jay Bruce vs. Julio Teheran – Teheran is having a great season, but he is allowing a .326 wOBA to lefties, and for his career that number is .346. Bruce with his .375 wOBA and 134 wRC+ versus righties is a good one-off play.
- Brandon Crawford vs. Matt Garza – Garza was one of the worst pitchers against lefties in 2015 with a .373 wOBA allowed. Crawford struggles with southpaws, but is nicely above average against righties with a .348 wOBA and 125 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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