Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 13
I have to admit that this is one of those slates that, at first glance, I didn’t know what to do with. My morning research revealed some stats and tendencies which give me an idea of how I am going to want to play today, but I might be tinkering all the way until lineup lock today.
In short, the only ace throwing is Scherzer who pitches against the Cubs on the road, so I may stay away. And the worst pitchers are in the Reds vs. Braves game, so I don’t know if I will target their offenses. Let’s see what we can come up with.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Albert Pujols vs. Ricky Nolasco – 13/28 with 5 doubles and 3 homers
- Trevor Plouffe vs. Jered Weaver – 7/17 with 3 doubles, a homer and 3 walks
- Chase Utley vs. Zach Greinke – 4/12 with 2 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Lonnie Chisenhall vs. Edinson Volquez – 5/12 with 2 doubles and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Reds vs. Aaron Blair – Blair’s batted ball peripherals don’t look terrible, but he quite simply has not been able to locate the plate since his call-up. I haven’t targeted Reds hitters much this year (aside from at Coors), but looking at the numbers, they quietly rank 5th in the majors in runs scored and 3rd in OPS in the month of June. This could be a sneaky spot for some runs.
- Diamondbacks vs. Mike Bolsinger – Bolsinger’s MO in getting guys out during his first two years in the majors was via the ground ball as his GB% was over 50% both years. This year, his ground ball percentage is all the way down to 35.2% while he is giving up fly balls 40.7% of the time. If the fly balls he was allowing were soft, that would not be terrible (especially with Dodger Stadium being his home park), but his hard contact rate allowed sits at an unacceptable 40.4%. The Diamondbacks rank 5th in runs scored at home and should do some damage against this version of Bolsinger.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Rangers at A’s – 17 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Matt Cain vs. Brewers – Cain hasn’t been the same pitcher the last few seasons, but he was beginning to find his groove before he hit the DL this year. In his previous 3 starts he had gone 6+ IP allowing 2 ER or less in each. Today he faces the Brewers and their 26.2% K-rate versus right-handed pitchers in his run suppressing home ballpark. I like Cain in a relatively weak slate for pitchers.
- Carlos Carrasco vs. Royals – The Royals have been quietly awful offensively this year, and it has reached its nadir in June as they have the fewest runs per game this month. Carrasco has not yet found his groove this season, but he is probably the second best pitcher on this slate talent wise. He looked better versus Seattle his last time out but suffered some bad homer luck. I think he gets the job done today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Justin Smoak vs. Jerad Eickhoff – Eickhoff allows a .338 wOBA to lefties, but the Jays don’t have many hitters to take advantage. Smoak is the best of the bunch with a .359 wOBA and 126 wRC+ (for those wondering – Michael Saunders actually has pronounced reverse platoon split numbers this season).
- Danny Valencia vs. Cesar Ramos – Valencia has been amazing against southpaws this year with a .539 wOBA and 234 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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