Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 11
Saturday is usually my daily fantasy day off. The schedule is so spread out and I like to play 8 lineups a slate – and I don’t want to make 24 lineups! Plus, Saturday is family day for me when I spend the whole day with my wife and kids. But today might be too good to pass up. There are some pitchers that I love today as well as some hitters that I feel strongly about. Maybe I will throw in a lineup or 10!
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Brandon Belt vs. Scott Kazmir – 5/10 with 3 homers and a walk
- AJ Pierzynski vs. Jake Arrieta – 8/14 with 2 homers, a double and 2 walks
- Curtis Granderson vs. Wily Peralta – 5/11 with 2 homers, 2 doubles and a walk
- Cody Asche vs. Tanner Roark – 5/11 with 2 homers, a double and a walk
Stacks to Target:
- Padres at Rockies – The Coors Field Effect – Tyler Chatwood has been dynamite for the Rockies this year, but I still wouldn’t shy away from using Padres. And Erik Johnson makes his San Diego debut so the Rockies are all in play.
- Reds vs. Daniel Mengden – As a baseball junkie, it is very rare that there is a pitcher starting a big league game that I have never heard of. Mengden, however, fits that particular bill. Looking at his stats in the minors this year, his 1.39 ERA is impressive, but it is accompanied by a strand rate of 89.7% and a .210 BABIP meaning a more pedestrian 3.74 FIP. He had a 4.75 ERA in A+ ball last year, and I can’t see him slowing down a big league lineup. Duvall, Bruce and Votto will be a low owned stack worth playing.
- White Sox vs. Chris Young – Chris Young has somehow managed a 6.37 ERA despite a sub .270 BABIP and a strand rate over 85%. Part of it has to do with his insane 25% HR/FB rate which will surely fall, but to be honest, I am not sure by how much. Young is allowing an astounding 40.1% hard contact this year and 54.4% of his contact allowed is fly balls – that is a recipe for allowing a huge amount of homers. In fact, if he keeps up this pace, he might approach Bert Blyleven’s record of 50 homers allowed in a year. Since stacks are most effective when teammates string hits together, I am not sure that a White Sox stack is the best play, but target all of your White Sox as 1-off plays for their home run potential.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Padres at Rockies – 11 MPH wind blowing out.
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jake Arrieta vs. Braves; Jose Fernandez vs. Diamondbacks (The Obvious Plays) – The Braves have the worst offense in the majors and face a top 5 pitcher. Arrieta is your safest cash game play on the board. The Diamondbacks are the 6th most strikeout prone team in the majors and face MLB’s best strikeout pitcher. Fernandez is a great play too.
- Chris Archer vs. Astros – Archer is not having a vintage season so it is easy to overlook the fact that he leads the American League in K/9 and is 2nd in strikeouts. The Astros are MLB’s most strikeout prone team by a wide margin. Archer is only the 5th most expensive pitcher on DraftKings and is a good bet for double digit Ks. And don’t forget – the DFS sites greatly reward pitcher strikeouts. My favorite GPP play – though I am sure he will have fairly high ownership percentage.
- JA Happ vs. Orioles – Doing my research today I was surprised, very surprised actually, to see that the Orioles rank last in the AL in OPS against lefties with a .688 mark. Happ has had 2 rough starts this year but has been otherwise stellar. And he has been effective against the Orioles lineup holding them to a collective .221/.300/.373 line with an impressive 36.3% K-rate. Happ’s ownership will likely hover around 5% (or less) so he is a great flyer in a GPP.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Derek Dietrich vs. Zach Godley – Dietrich has been effective against righties this year with a .373 wOBA and 135 wRC+.
- Michael Conforto vs. Wily Peralta – Conforto has been stellar against righties this year with a .390 wOBA and 152 wRC+, and Peralta can’t get lefties out. One of my favorite one-off plays of the day,
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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