Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 8
It’s a split slate today with 4 afternoon games on the docket and 11 evening/night games that follow. 8 of the 30 pitchers on the hill today are priced at $10,000 and up on DraftKings with 3 others priced over $9,000 – so there is plenty to choose from on the mound. Hitting stacks may be a bit tougher to find as favorite teams like the Red Sox, Cubs and Mariners face good pitching today.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Alex Rodriguez vs. Jered Weaver – 11/29 with 5 homers, 2 doubles and 6 walks
- Robinson Cano vs. Carlos Carrasco – 5/11 with 2 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Ian Kinsler vs. R.A. Dickey – 8/19 with 3 homers and a walk
- Colby Rasmus vs. Yu Darvish – 7/15 with 2 doubles and a homer
Stacks to Target:
- Yankees vs. Jered Weaver – Despite sitting 26th in MLB in OPS versus right-handed pitching, Vegas projects the Yankees to score the most runs of any team tonight. That tells you all you need to know about Weaver whose 12.7% soft contact rate would represent a career low and 35.0% hard contact rate would represent a career high. Back when he was very effective, his hard contact allowed was always 20-26%. Despite the projected high run total for the Yankees, they are all relatively cheap on DraftKings, with most players salaried under $4,000 and the highest priced players (Ellsbury and Beltran) costing $4,300. Could be a very profitable play.
- Rangers vs. Doug Fister – Fister’s numbers don’t look terrible, but his K rate is down, his BB rate is up, his BABIP is down and his strand rate is up. All this points to some regression, and he runs into a hot team in the Rangers. Texas is averaging a shade under 7 runs per game over the last week, and is second in the AL in batting average at .297 over that span. I like Fister’s regression to start today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Cubs at Phillies – windy and possibility of rain
- Blue Jays at Tigers – 14 MPH wind blowing out
- Mets at Pirates – 12 MPH wind blowing out
- Angels at Yankees – 15 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Yu Darvish vs. Astros – The Astros’ 25.1% K-rate against right-handed pitching is 3rd in the majors and they have struck out the most times overall. In his 2 starts this year, Darvish is showing that he hasn’t lost his ability to strike people out as his K/9 sits at 10.13 which is actually lower than his 11.20 career average. Remember – Daily Fantasy Sites highly reward the K. As an example, Chris Archer’s 6 IP 3 ER 12 K performance on Monday scored more on DraftKings than Zach Greinke’s complete game 2-hit shutout yesterday because Greinke only struck out 2. Darvish can get his K total into double digits and put up a huge score.
- Madison Bumgarner vs. Red Sox – I love this play for GPPs. I feel like many will be scared away by the Red Sox potent offense, but Vegas still pegs the Sox as the lowest scoring team of the night. And Bumgarner is only the 5th highest priced pitcher on DK tonight. The Sox have been stymied by some elite lefties this year including Jose Quintana and I think Bumgarner is a step above that. He currently sits 4th in the NL in ERA, 8th in K/9, 5th in K and 8th in FIP. This is as cheap as you’ll get a super-elite pitcher (outside of Coors), so I will take my chances.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Kike Hernandez vs. Chris Rusin – Kike hasn’t been quite as dynamite versus lefties this year, but he still has a career .413 wOBA and 168 wRC+ versus southpaws.
- Derek Dietrich vs. Ricky Nolasco – Dietrich destroys soft righties and has an overall .389 wOBA and 145 wRC+ against right-handers on the year.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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