Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for June 5
This is a high pressure slate for me. Since I started playing daily fantasy in 2014, I have been trying to convince my sometimes fantasy rival, sometimes fantasy partner, and always best friend – my brother Ricky – to play as well. He tried once briefly in the 2015 NFL season and then didn’t play again. Then, out of the blue, yesterday I got a message from DraftKings that someone was challenging me in a head-to-head for today. I recognized the screen name – it was my brother’s. Now he’s been talking smack non-stop telling me that he is going to whoop me.
This is actually the first cash game lineup that I will be making all season because I have become a GPP only player. (My ROI in cash games in MLB is -4.20% while for GPPs it is +77.24%). But I will need to come up with a good one to beat my brother.
Let’s see what we came up with in today’s slate:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Luis Valbuena vs. Sonny Gray – 5/10 with a homer and 2 walks
- Jason Kipnis vs. Chris Young – 6/14 with 2 doubles, a homer and a walk
- Nori Aoki vs. Derek Holland – 5/10 with 2 doubles
- Nick Markakis vs. Scott Kazmir – 11/26 with 2 homers and 2 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Nationals vs. Jon Moscot – Moscot has pulled off the impossible – he has a 7.13 ERA with an impossibly low .210 BABIP, making his FIP sit at over 9.00. Moscot also strikes out less guys than he walks, is giving up line drives at a 32.3% clip, and hard contact at a 34.8% rate. I like the Nationals for double-digit runs today.
- Cubs vs. Patrick Corbin – Corbin’s strikeouts are down and his walks are up. He also leads MLB in hard contact allowed with an astounding 41.0%. Righties have a .363 wOBA against Corbin on the season, and the Cubs have a .791 OPS against southpaws, good for 5th in MLB. I like the Cubs today.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
There is a lot of rain in the forecast today. Be sure to follow Kevin Roth on Twitter (@KevinRothWx) for the latest in weather news.
- Royals vs. Indians – chance of rain
- White Sox at Tigers – chance of rain
- Yankees at Orioles – chance of rain
- Brewers at Phillies – chance of rain
- Angels at Pirates – chance of rain
- Rays at Twins – 18 MPH wind blowing out
Pitchers of the Day:
- Jose Fernandez vs. Mets – As you all know, DFS sites love the strikeout pitchers, and Fernandez is the best strikeout pitcher in the business with a 32.9% K-rate. The Mets have also struck out more than their fair share against right-handed starters with a 23.3% K-rate. Fernandez also leads this slate in SIERA at 2.75 while the Mets are 29th in runs over the last 7 days with only 21 runs scored. Jose could be in for a big score today.
- Aaron Nola vs. Brewers – The book on Nola when he was a prospect was that he was a good control pitcher that could induce a ton of soft contact, but was not much of a strikeout guy. Nola has kind of turned that on its face this year by featuring his wipeout curveball more, and he now has a more than respectable 23.9% K-rate and 9.50 K/9. The Brewers are the most strikeout prone team in MLB versus right-handed starters at 26.71%. He is expensive and may not get the win, but I love Nola as a GPP play on DraftKings.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Jung-Ho Kang vs. Hector Santiago – The Kang Show has a .444 wOBA and 186 wRC+ versus lefties on the year.
- Trevor Story vs. Brad Hand – The Rockies may have a field day against the Padres fill in starter. Story likes to face lefty starters sporting a .380 wOBA.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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