Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 27
There is definitely a strong correlation between how much time one has to make lineups, versus daily fantasy performance. My usual routine is to spend about an hour in the mornings analyzing pitchers, then an hour on my daily commute analyzing hitters, then take lunch at my desk and analyze site salaries and potential lineups that work together for 5-3 stacks and that fit under the cap, then at around 4:00 take 15-30 minutes to look at posted lineups and weather and actually make lineups on the DFS sites and then do some last-minute tinkering during my commute home from 6-7.
The last couple of weeks have been extremely busy at work, so I have had to rely almost solely on my morning analysis and my performance has not been as good as it was in April. Yesterday, I decided to bite the bullet and go with my regular routine – even if it meant working late, and I had my best day in 2 weeks. Goes to show that you can’t really skip steps.
Here are your quick hits of the day:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Adrian Gonzalez vs. Jacob deGrom – 5/10 with 2 homers and a walk
- Jacoby Ellsbury vs.Chris Archer – 16/24 with a double a homer and 4 walks
- Josh Donaldson vs. Joe Kelly – 9/17 with a homer and 2 walks
- DJ LeMahieu vs. Matt Cain – 8/20 with 2 doubles a homer and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Giants at Rockies (Coors Field) – Coors Field is back – if you make multiple lineups or play cash games only, there is no way to fade this game. So don’t.
- Rangers vs. Jon Niese – Niese has struggled this year, allowing a .453 wOBA on the road and a .380 wOBA to right-handed bats. The ballpark at Arlington is almost as great a place to hit as Coors, and the Rangers have been doing well against lefties, ranking 8th in MLB in OPS. With there being a game in Coors, the Rangers may go underowned – I will be heavily targeting them.
- Mariners vs. Pat Dean – Dean’s ERA looks OK at 3.86 but he has allowed hard contact at a 36.4% clip and his strand rate of 83.3% portends worse things to come. His sub 90 MPH fastball will likely not bother destroyer of all lefties, Nelson Cruz and I think Franklin Gutierrez will get himself back on track today. I am also loving Dae-Ho Lee, either as part of a stack or as a stand-alone punt play.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Philadelphia vs. Cubs – chance of rain
- Pirates at Rangers – 11 MPH wind blowing in
- White Sox at Royals – chance of rain
- Giants at Rockies – chance of rain
Pitchers of the Day:
- Felix Hernandez vs. Twins – Minnesota ranks last in the AL in OPS overall with a .676 number. They have also struck out the 6th most in MLB. Felix is the 2nd most expensive pitcher on DraftKings but his salary is not prohibitive. The safest play in cash, but don’t shy away from this one in GPPs either.
- Zach Davies vs. Reds – The Reds have a quietly terrible offense ranking 27th in OPS and having a team batting average of .215 in the month of May. Davies is not a world beater, but he has allowed 2 runs or less in 3 of 4 games and has a wOBA allowed of .310 in May. He is cheap and usable if you want to fit in some Coors Field bats.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Welington Castillo vs. Christian Friedrich – Welington has a .463 wOBA and 191 wRC+ versus southpaws and he has hit 5 of his 7 homers this season against lefties.
- Elvis Andrus vs. Niese – Andrus has racked up an impressive .353 batting average versus lefties this season.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
Go to Fantasy Rundown for additional DFS picks from some of the top sites on the web.
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