Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for May 11
It’s a Wednesday split-slate which is usually fun. There are some nice pitching options on the table today with Bumgarner, Scherzer, Zimmerman, Archer, Salazar and others. Let’s see if we can find some value in this slate with some lower priced options.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Charlie Blackmon vs. Robbie Ray – 7/11 with a double and a walk
- Manny Machado vs. Phil Hughes – 10/19 with 2 homers and a walk
- Brandon Phillips vs. Juan Nicasio – 5/11 with 2 doubles and a homer
- Troy Tulowitzki vs. Madison Bumgarner – 11/29 with 2 doubles 2 homers and 3 walks
Stacks to Target:
- Rockies vs. Robbie Ray – The last time that Ray faced the Rockies it was in Chase Field and not Coors Field, and he still allowed 4 homers and 5 runs over 4 innings. The thin air will not help him out and I think the Rockies will put up 10+ runs today
- Cubs RHB vs. Colin Rea – Rea has some pronounced reverse splits in his career as righties have a .387 wOBA this season and .364 career wOBA against him. The Cubs have some of the best right-handed bats out there with Bryant, Soler and others. Fire them up today.
- Red Sox vs. Erik Surkamp – Surkamp is a bad pitcher who walks more guys than he strikes out. Both righties and lefties hit him well as he has a .390 career wOBA allowed against left-handed bats and it is .378 against righties. The Sox are red-hot, and this does not seem like the guy who will slow them down.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- White Sox at Rangers – 11 MPH wind blowing in
Pitchers of the Day:
1. Taijuan Walker vs. Rays – I highly recommended Walker in his last start, but we got a little unlucky as he left the game with a strained neck. Despite that bit of unluckiness, Walker’s walk rate is way down, his ground-ball rate is way up, his K/9 is steady, and his peripherals point to a pitcher that has turned the corner to near-elite.
Looking at his actual pitching, the ground-ball rate can be explained by decreased fastball usage and increase splitter usage. He faces Tampa Bay today who have the second lowest OPS against righties in the AL. I think Walker will dominate (unless his neck cramps up again).
2. Jerad Eickhoff vs. Braves – My colleague James Kreuger wrote a fine article this morning outlining the success of the top 3 of the Phillies rotation, which includes Eickhoff. In short, James highlighted Eickhoff’s stellar K/BB ratio and points to his peripheral numbers as someone who will likely experience positive regression soon.
Today, Eickhoff faces off against the Braves who have the lowest OPS vs righties in MLB as well as the lowest OPS at home. They also have the lowest OPS versus lefties and on the road – the Braves are putrid! Look for Eickhoff’s surface numbers to start correcting themselves today.
Platoon Split Hitters:
- Ryan Braun vs. Wei-Yin Chen – Braun has an other-worldly .474 wOBA and 191 wRC+ versus lefties on the year which is not all that much better than his career marks of .435 and 172.
- Gregory Polanco vs. Alfredo Simon – Polanco has been mashing righties this year with a .390 wOBA and 143 wRC+.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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