Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top DFS Plays for April 30
I try to be as forthright as possible when I give daily fantasy advice. I am a low stakes daily fantasy player who plays almost exclusively $3 and under GPPs. For baseball, I usually play 6-8 lineups for $18-24 a day. I am profitable (which is hard considering the rake that the DFS sites take), but I am not one of the sharks who play DFS for a living.
That’s what makes yesterday a great achievement for a player like me. Using a Rockies stack, which I advocated on this site, as well as a Mets mini-stack, I finished in 4th out of 7,666 in a $3 GPP for a $750 haul. If not for Matt Kemp’s 8th inning homer, it would have been $1,250. For the big-timers, this would be small potatoes, but that is a huge bankroll builder for me and my best haul of the young season. This culminates what has been a really good week for me. Let’s see if we can keep up the momentum.
Here are your quick hit thoughts for today:
Batter versus Pitcher Warriors:
- Jacoby Ellsbury vs. Rick Porcello – 12/25 with 4 homers 2 doubles and a walk
- Carlos Gonzalez vs. Zach Greinke – 10/28 with 4 homers 2 doubles and 2 walks
- Steve Pearce vs. J.A. Happ – 8/22 with 3 homers 2 doubles and a walk
- Mookie Betts vs. Michael Pineda – 4/12 with a double and a homer
Stacks to Target:
- Cubs LHB vs. Julio Teheran – Teheran has allowed a .407 wOBA to left-handed hitters on the season which is not far out of line of his .350 career wOBA allowed. The Cubs can mash and I especially love Fowler, Heyward and Rizzo today.
- Mets vs. Matt Cain – Matt Cain is not the same guy as he used to be and he has been dreadful on the road with an 11.57 ERA this year and a 6.27 ERA last year. The Mets, especially the middle of their order, have been scorching hot. Cespedes is notoriously streaky so let’s see if he can continue to ride the wave, while you pair him with Conforto, Duda and Neil Walker.
Weather Factors to Target or Avoid:
- Tigers at Twins – 17 MPH wind blowing in
- Nationals at Cardinals – chance of rain
- Braves at Cubs – 16 MPH wind blowing in and chance of rain
- Reds at Pirates – Chance of rain
Sneaky Pitchers of the Day:
- Kevin Gausman vs. White Sox – If you want to do well in a GPP, your best bet is to take a cheaper pitching option who can strike guys out. The White Sox are playing good ball, but Gausman is a strikeout pitcher whose K rate is up this year (between AAA and the majors) and his velocity was also up in his first start.
- Trevor Bauer vs. Phillies – Narrative alert – but I feel like Bauer has something to prove after his very surprising demotion from the starting rotation. The Phillies are 27th in run scored and 9th in strikeouts and Bauer has a good chance to shine.
Sneaky Platoon Split Hitters:
- Logan Forsythe vs. J.A. Happ – I love Logan against any lefty – though Happ has been lights out since last all-star break. Regardless, Forsythe has a .472 wOBA and 223 wRC+ against southpaws and could make a great contrarian play today.
- Welington Castillo vs. Chris Rusin – Beef Welington already has 4 homers against southpaws on the season and has mashed to the tune of a .542 wOBA and 234 wRC+ against lefties.
Any more questions? Hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil
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