Week 6 NFL DraftKings picks – Looking out for me

Neil previews his top DraftKings NFL plays for Week 6

I heard from two satisfied customers last week.  One guy was a first time DraftKings depositor who used many of my suggestions to finish 2nd out of 2,300 in one contest and top 600 in the Millionaire Maker, netting him $1,400.  The other was my sister’s boyfriend who took much of my advice to win a private tournament, netting him $135.  As for me, I used the wrong players that I recommended and lost $10 on the week.  Glad I made someone some cash.  Hopefully it’s my turn this week – and maybe I’ll help some of you out there too.

Any questions – don’t hesitate to hit me up on Twitter @AssemblyNeil, and take a second to check out SportsBettingCanadian; expert sports betting tips and picks for Canadians.

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QUARTERBACK

Luxury Items: Tom Brady, New England Patriots ($8,100)

  • Brady is on pace to set an NFL record with over 5,500 passing yards.  This week he faces a Colts defense who is ranked 25th in Defensive Efficiency against the pass per Football Outsiders.  Ultimately, though this is an emotional pick.  Brady and the Patriots know that the Colts were the whistleblowers in the Deflategate fiasco and I think TB12 will be out for blood.  I’m not usually one for narratives (ask my friend Jason), but this one is too good to pass up.

Bang for Your Buck: Marcus Mariotta, Tennessee Titans ($5,800)

  • Mariotta is the cheapest he’s been all season, which makes little sense since the Dolphins have been hard pressed to stop anyone.  The Dolphins are ranked 31st in Defensive Efficiency against the pass and allowed multiple touchdowns to middling quarterbacks Blake Bortles and Tyrod Taylor.  Mariotta has thrown for multiple touchdowns in 3 of his first 4 career games.  I think this will be a virtuoso performance. 

Discount Bin: Brian Hoyer, Houston Texans ($5,100)

  • Hoyer has actually passed for more than 230 yards and a touchdown in each of the three games he has appeared in this year, including two games that he didn’t play the full game.  He should be playing all game this week against a mediocre Jaguars team, that allowed 350+ yards multiple times this year and is only ranked 24th against the pass in defensive efficiency.

RUNNING BACK

Luxury Items: Justin Forsett, Baltimore Ravens ($6,400), Eddie Lacy, Green Bay Packers ($6,300)

  • Watch the injury reports closely as Forsett has a boo-boo and may not play.  If he can find the lineup though, Forsett has been tremendous his last two games with 150+ total yards in both games and 18+ DraftKings points in both as well.  He should do well against the San Francisco defense ranked a meager 26th against the run.
  • Lacy was disappointing last game as he has been most of the year but San Diego’s defense ranked 30th against the run should cure what ails him.  The Chargers have allowed 100+ yards to 3 of the 5 running backs that have faced them this year.  Lacy could pick up his first 100 yard game of the year.  Remember, he started slowly last year and finished really strong.

Bang for your Buck: Duke Johnson, Cleveland Browns ($4,500), LeGarrette Blount, New England Patriots ($4,400)

  • Weekly reminder – DraftKings uses full PPR format.  Duke Johnson has had at least 6 catches in his last three games and now faces the Broncos who allowed passing back Marcel Reese to have 7 catches, 49 yards and a touchdown last week.  Josh McCown will likely have to check down a lot and Johnson should be the beneficiary.
  • I actually think that the Patriots will be changing their game plan against the Colts this time around, but I would be remiss if I didn’t mention that the Patriots power back in their last three games have the following stats:  Blount versus Colts 2013 – 166 yards and 4 TDs, Jonas Gray versus the Colts in 2014 201 yards and 4 TDs, Blount versus the Colts 2014 148 yards and 3 TDs.  Could be a big game for Blount.

Discount Bin: Charcandrick West, Kansas City Royals ($4,000), Jonas Gray, Miami Dolphins ($3,000)

  • Andy Reid’s comments out of Kansas City make it seem like it will be West and not Knile Davis who will be getting the majority of carries that would have gone to Jamaal Charles.  The Vikings are only 29th in defensive efficiency against the rush and West could have a chance to do some damage.
  • WARNING – NEIL’S HUNCH PLAY OF THE WEEK! Lamar Miller has been dreadful thus far this season, and with the new coaching regime in Miami, I have a feeling they might be giving the former Patriot a chance to shine this week.  If Gray does play, the Titans are only 28th in Defensive Efficiency against the run.

WIDE RECEIVER

Luxury Items: DeMaryius Thomas, Denver Broncos ($7,900), DeAndre Hopkins, Houston Texans ($7,700), Calvin Johnson, Detroit Lions ($7,300)

  • Thomas is 4th in the NFL in targets and 3rd in receptions and should continue to get many looks within the Broncos offense.  The Browns are only ranked 22nd against #1 receivers.  Thomas could be poised for a real breakout game.
  • Hopkins is literally a target monster, as he has a whopping 75 targets on the season already, by far the most in the NFL.  Cecil Shorts and Nate Washington are still banged up for Houston, and Hopkins will likely see 15 or so targets again this week.  Considering the volume, this is actually a nice price.
  • Calvin has had 100+ yards or a touchdown in each of his last 4 games against Chicago.  And while he has not set the world on fire this year, he is still 5th in targets and 10th in catches.  I expect a breakout game for Megatron here.

Bang for your Buck: Allen Hurns, Jacksonville Jaguars ($5,000), Eric Decker, New York Jets ($4,900), Anquan Boldin, San Francsico Giants ($4,300)

  • Hurns has been among the most consistent receivers in the NFL this season with 65+ yards in every game this season.  He has been even better as of late with matching 116 yard games.  Houston ranks only 25th versus #2 receivers – Hurns is in line for some continued good production.
  • Decker has a touchdown in every game that he has played this year.  Washington is a solid 3rd against top receivers, so Brandon Marshall may have some difficulty getting open, but they are an abysmal 27th against #2 receivers.  Ryan Fitzpatrick will likely be targeting Decker quite a bit this year and the former Bronco should take advantage.
  • Boldin finally broke out last week, but he has been getting plenty of opportunity as he is a solid 30th in the NFL in targets on the season.  Baltimore has allowed 139+ yards to receivers 3 times already this season.  Boldin could be in line for another nice game.

Discount Bin: Jermaine Kearse, Seattle Mariners ($3,600), Ted Ginn, Jr., Carolina Panthers ($3,400), Willie Snead, New Orleans Saints($3,300)

  • Kearse has had 75+ yards or a touchdown in 4 of Seattle’s 5 games this year, amassing double digit DraftKings points in all 4 of those games.  Kearse could do some damage for a low price.
  • Ginn plays against the Seattle Seahawks’ defense so he is by no means a safe play.  But he is the clear #1 receiver in Carolina with 6+ targets in 3 of their 4 games.  In Carolina’s last game, Ginn caught 2 touchdown passes and has been getting red zone looks.  
  • As long as Snead is on the cheapie list, he will appear in this portion of my column.  Snead has had 6+ targets in each of his last 4 games, and has had 89+ receiving yards in each of his last two.  He won’t be cheap for much longer, but this price makes it worth playing the Thursday game just to get him in your lineups.

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Luxury Item: Tyler Eifert, Cincinnati Bengals ($4,900)

  • Has had a whopping 12+ targets twice already this season and multiple touchdowns in two games as well.  The last top tight-end who faced Buffalo had 113 yards and a touchdown.  Granted, Eifert is not Gronk, but he is not bad in his own right.  I think he is worth the price of admission this week.

Bang for your Buck: Larry Donnell, New York Giants ($2,800)

  • Donnell has had 6+ targets each of the last 4 weeks so he is certainly getting his looks.  Caught a touchdown last week and it could be more of the same against the Eagles this week.

Discount Bin: C.J. Fiedorowicz, Houston Texans ($2,500)

  • Jacksonville is ranked 29th against opposing tight-ends and Fiedorowicz is a decent pass catcher at the minimum price.  Granted, he has only had multiple targets in one game this year, but at the lowest possible price, beggars can’t be choosers.

DEFENSE/SPECIAL TEAMS

Bang for your buck: New York Jets ($3,100) vs. Washington, Minnesota Vikings ($2,900) vs, Kansas City

  • Kirk Cousins is a turnover machine and the Jets have quite a formidable defense.  This is the play of the day.
  • The Vikings have an underrated front four and should be able to get after Alex Smith.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @AssemblyNeil

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.