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Buy Low/Sell High: Week 5

This is the first buy low/sell high article of 2015. If you have been playing fantasy sports you should know that trading is an important part of building a championship team.

Buy Low Sell High LogoTrading in fantasy sports is similar to the stock market; you want to sell stocks (players) when you think their value is at or near its apex. Wait one week too long and it could mean a lot of value lost. The exact opposite is the case when looking to buy.

In this weekly article I am going to try to profile some players based on the last week or two who could be some good buy low and sell high options.

I will try to offer an example of a trade that you could offer to get that player. If I say offer player “X” and player “Y” for player “A” that doesn’t mean I think that is what that player is really worth, it is an example of how low an owner might view that player’s value. You can obviously try a combination of players that is better or worse than what I recommend.

If you have any trades that you are thinking about offering or have had offered to you, post them in the comment section below. They do not necessarily have to be of the buy low or sell high variety.

BUY LOW

QB – Andrew Luck – Colts

He got off to a slow start, and then missed this week with an injury. Every Luck owner should be hurting right now record wise; Luck had a bad week coupled with two average ones. There is no guarantee Luck plays Thursday night, but if he does he will tear apart the Texans. Everyone knows what Luck is capable of; once the Luck owner sees a sign of a turnaround, your buy low opportunity will be gone. Act quickly; there isn’t a full week to get the trade done.

Potential buy low offer: Tyrod Taylor and Mark Ingram for Andrew Luck

RB – Arian Foster – Texans

He did not look good in his first game back. He didn’t do much in the running game and also fumbled. Foster will be great when he is given the full load. Do not worry about the team around him being bad; a healthy Foster elevates the offense. This might be the last chance to but a top-tier running back at a bargain.

Potential buy low offer: Keenan Allen for Arian Foster

RB – Latavius Murray – Raiders  

He left the game early with an injury. but returned to action later so the injury doesn’t appear to be serious. So few running backs have performed well this season. The best time to buy might be after next week’s game against the Broncos. The Raiders should struggle on offense. and I wouldn’t be surprised to see another clunker type game and possibly a chance to buy even lower.

Potential buy low offer: Jeremy Maclin for Latavius Murray

WR – John Brown – Cardinals

Brown put up a decent yardage game this week. He might be the most talented receiver on the Cardinals at the moment, although Fitzgerald is reviving his career. Brown is a speedy slot receiver who should be a big time performer sooner rather than later. Don’t wait until he has a double-digit 100-yard game before you realize you want him.

Potential buy low offer: Danny Woodhead for John Brown

WR – Jordan Matthews – Eagles

The offense showed signs of life today. The risk in trading for Matthews is that it showed signs of life without featuring him. I wouldn’t be worried, Matthews is still the top target in the passing game. The receivers outside of the elite group (even the ones inside of it) are going to have their fair share of clunkers. If this offense can figure things out then Matthews can rejoin the top 12-receiver discussion.

Potential buy low offer: T.J. Yeldon and Golden Tate for Jordan Matthews

TE – Travis Kelce – Chiefs

Still in the elite top four group of tight ends. I was reading on message boards that people were considering dropping him because he was struggling. If owners really are that frustrated, run (don’t walk) to offer them a deal.

Potential buy low offer: Delanie Walker and Danny Woodhead for Travis Kelce

SELL HIGH

QB – Andy Dalton – Bengals: He has been an up and down performer his entire career, I am not about to bet that he has changed. The Bengals get the Seahawks and Bills the next two weeks leading into the bye week.

Potential sell high offer: Andy Dalton and Matt Forte for Adrian Peterson

QB – Phillip Rivers – Chargers: Rivers has performed really well to date, but in the long run he is in the “whatever” group of quarterbacks outside the top eight or so. He isn’t going to be the guy who will win you a week, but if an owner in your league drafted Tony Romo and Sam Bradford to be their quarterbacks, Rivers could carry some big value.

Potential sell high offer: Phillip Rivers and Emmanuel Sander for Odell Beckham Jr.

RB – T.J. Yeldon – Jaguars: He looked good in week one but has struggled ever since. He got his first 100-yard game in the NFL this week, but the majority of it came on a 36-yard run in overtime. Yeldon is a volume play; his value is going to come on the hope that he gets 20 touches a game. Running backs on the Jaguars can never be a sure bet to get 20 touches a game with how bad that team is.

Potential sell high offer: T.J. Yeldon and Allen Robinson for Brandon Marshall

RB – Jeremy Hill – Bengals: Jeremy Hill had a huge game in terms of fantasy points, but overall nothing Hill did was special. If you can get someone to buy into the potential top five running back hype from the preseason after the 24-point outbreak, sell immediately. This is a full-blown timeshare, and when the clock needed to be killed late in the game it Giovani Bernard who was on the field. Bernard had all 10 of the team’s carries with fewer than 10 minutes left in the game.

Potential sell high offer: Jeremy Hill for Demaryius Thomas

WR – Jeremy Maclin: Maclin has had two big weeks in a row. I do not think he should be sold for cheap; he has top 20 ability. However, I do not think the Chiefs’ offense is going to keep featuring him. One big game came primarily in garbage time.

Potential sell high offer: Jeremy Maclin for T.Y. Hilton

WR – Keenan Allen – Chargers: Antonio Gates is coming back next week to eat up some of Allen’s targets. Allen has shown so far this season that he needs a lot of targets in order to be a good source of points. If he sits in the around eight targets per game he will not be anything more than a third receiver or a flex.

Potential sell high offer: Keenan Allen for Todd Gurley

TE – Martellus Bennett – Bears: He is always a fast starter and he just got to play one of the worst defenses ever when it comes to defending tight ends. Right now he is the number one (or 1-A with Forte) passing option in this offense. Alshon Jeffery should be returning soon as well.

Potential sell high offer: Martellus Bennett and Keenan Allen for Amari Cooper

BUY HIGH

Normally the idea is to not buy high on a player, but in some cases it is the right thing to do. Each week I will pick a player that you should buy at a high value now because I see his value going up even more in the future.

WR – Amari Cooper – Raiders: I was way too low on him in the preseason. He is the real deal and by far the number one target in the passing game. I would be willing to pay up for him before his value really skyrockets.

I would take him over: T.Y. Hilton, Mike Evans, Alshon Jeffery

SELL LOW

Similar to the buy high this will be a player that I think you can sell for pennies on the dollar before his value plummets even more.

RB – Jonathan Stewart – Panthers: I am willing to bite the bullet on this one. In the preseason, if I was told he was going to average 15 carries per game I would have assumed he was a high-end running back two. The big knock on him over the years was the split backfield and he can’t stay on the field, but neither of those are a problem this year. He is third in line for carries when the team gets inside the 10 yard line. It isn’t going to happen this season.

I would sell him for: LeGarrette Blount, Dion Lewis, Isaiah Crowell.

 

Fantasy Rundown BannerNeed more buy/sell advice, position battles, injury news, waiver wire pick-ups, etc.., head on over to Fantasy Rundown.

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Andy Germani
I am a lifelong Pittsburgh sports fan and a graduate from Penn State. Baseball was my first love and I still play to this day in an adult baseball league. I always love helping people with their questions on Twitter so feel free to follow me and ask questions.

66 comments on “Buy Low/Sell High: Week 5

  1. Was thinking about offering Sam Bradford & Gary Barnidge for Jarvis Landry, since I have Brady/Gronk back off bye. Thoughts?

    • I would definitely do that deal in your situation. Barnidge had a couple nice weeks but I wouldnt expect that to continue and Bradford will never start for you unless something happens to Brady.

      Landry is better than the numbers he has put up to this point. He has top 20 upside but he should be have fat least flex value most weeks

  2. Thinking about shipping off Freeman and Fitzgerald for Edelman and Foster. Edelman would be my WR3 behind Odell and Demariyus in a PPR league. Also a Tevin Coleman owner with Joseph Randle as my other legitimate RB threat. Thoughts?

    • That is a very interesting offer. Definitely a buy low (Foster) and sell high (Fitzgerald and Freeman).

      Rest of season I would rather have Foster over Freeman, although it is closer than it was a week ago.

      Fitzgerald and Edelman are close in value but an often overlooked thing in trading for fantasy is that Edelman is past his bye week. PPR scoring is in Edelman’s favor as well.

      I would probably do this deal but it is very close. You might be able to get a little more for the two players you are trading away, but if you can’t I still think that is a deal that is in your favor.

      It might be a good idea to add Coleman to the trade and try to get another running back in return.

  3. Worth trying to sell high on Freeman? I have a bit of a glut at RB. Strong wr but very thin.

    12 team Yahoo, .5 ppr, 3WR/2RB/TE/Flex with return yards:
    QB: Tyrod taylor
    RB: Ingram, Foster, Ellington, Karlos Williams, Blount, D. Freeman, Matt Jones, c Michael
    WR: AB, Edelman, AJ Green, Devante Parker (will be dropping)
    TE: Clay, Gates (just picked up in advance of coming back next week)
    K: Crosby
    No defense right now. Will pick one up when I figure out who to add/drop

    Thanks!

    • I do think it is worth it to explore options with Freeman but the thing is I don’t know if you will get good value.

      The big thing on selling high is that the perceived value of a player is higher than what you value him. So if you think Freeman is a top 15 running back rest of season and you can get top 10 receiver value that is a deal to do.

      Last week’s performance for Freeman really will help his future value, back to back big performances holds a lot more value than one big week.

      I wouldn’t sell just for the sake of selling, if you can get a top 10 caliber receiver like Hopkins I think that would be worth it. I do not think I would settle for much less.

      I expect Freeman to lose some touches when Coleman comes back but this is primarily Freeman’s backfield now.

      At the moment you have a decent running back group. I assume you start Ingram, Foster and Freeman most weeks.

      I do not think Ellington is the running back he was on draft day. He is going to split time even more back there now. Karlos Williams is in concussion protocol so there is no guarantee he plays this week and when McCoy comes back I think Williams gets 40% of the carries at best. As you know Blount is going to be up and down and is not consistent but I think he is a fine running back for your flex.

      That being said if you do get a Hopkins, Fitzgerald, or Calvin Johnson type your bench flex options would be Blount and Ellington.

      Do you have any potential trade partners in mind and what receivers do they have?

      • Wow thank you so much for the thoughtful response! I haven’t gotten thorough analysis of a possible trade etc in i don’t know how long. Refreshing!

        So I have a few people in mind who I might deal with. This league is tricky because it’s friends of mine, but I’m seen as the enemy after winning last year and making several beneficial trades (though a few bad ones as well that nobody remembers haha), and a few of the guys are adamantly against dealing with me–I think most of them might be intentionally not returning my texts at this point. So it can be tough to get a deal done.

        fyi when looking at the rosters:
        Faber’s revenge is probably the worst with the paranoia, so i’m not going to approach him anymore. U Mad bro is pretty bad as well, though he at least theoretically would deal with me.
        On the other end but still tough to deal with b/c of their lack of involvement: Nikil’s neat team, Andrew’s team, and to a certain extent Brenda Warner are so uninvolved they shy away from deals.

        Peter’s team and Dirty fogel sanchez are both pretty sharp, but I imagine they may be open to a deal if it’s right.

        Here’s the link to the rosters (figure that’s easiest): http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/426586/starters

        I had been looking at trying to get D Hopkins or BMarshall from Turd Ferguson, and I would love to get my hands on Big Ben since he may be back in week 7, but again he’s wary of me.

        Any thoughts on deals that might work? I really want Lev Bell from Dx Macroorchitis, but he’s tough to pry away as the #1 pick–even though the guy is now 0-4 so maybe i can leverage that–he wanted a WR though and i’m so thin it’s tough to give up anyone from my 3 starters.

        Thoughts? Thanks again!

        • I was looking through some of the teams you listed the downside with those teams is that while some may have a caliber of player that you want they have next to no receiver depth so I don’t know if it would make sense for any of them to make a trade for a running back.

          I know you said Nikil doesn’t really trade but he is the only one in the league who has a good receiving group like yours. No one else has a legit group of three near what you two have. He might be the only one who would bite on a Freeman for receiver deal.

          This isn’t a deal for a receiver but Nikil really could use a second running back and flex option. You could approach that owner with Clay and Freeman for Gronk. I don’t know if he would do that but it is definitely worth a shot.

          Clay has been performing over the past few weeks so he might bite.

          You can still target the type of receiver mentioned in the last post but I wouldn’t see any of the owners biting, but hey you never know until you try.

          In the case of realistic trade possibility the Gronk for Clay and Freeman has a realistic chance, although if I was him I wouldn’t accept it.

          Gronk trade potential lineup
          QB: Taylor
          RB: Foster
          RB: Ingram
          WR: Brown
          WR: Green
          WR: Edelman
          TE: Gronk
          FLEX: Blount/Ellington/Williams

          The Gronk trade doesn’t help your receiver depth issue but it makes your starting lineup significantly better in my opinion.

          You could also try Freeman for any of his receivers straight up.

          Your best bet on a Freeman trade is to mention to your league mates you are looking to trade him for a receiver upgrade. You never know how the rest of your league values him until you ask.

          With your league, the other owners would be smart to not trade a recevier for a running back. Starting three receivers plus a flex makes the receiver position very thin.

          In the end you might be better off just keeping Freeman. Like I mentioned before most of the receivers of the caliber you are looking for the team that has them doesn’t have enough depth to make trading one of them away for a running back to make sense.

          Another route you could take for getting receiver depth is trading a different running back (Blount, Ellington, Williams) for a Terrance Williams, Martavis Bryant type

          • Ugh this is really frustrating! I love that deal in theory, but this is a guy who autodrafted, and the only time he has changed his lineup is when i tried to get him to trade me carson palmer (who was his backup).

            He left gronk in during his bye week, and now is 2-2 after starting off on fire–but doesn’t make any ww moves, etc. I think it’s just indifference and he’s in the league b/c we all are but not interested in doing anything.

            Any other trade ideas? I’d also be willing to consolidate my talent in a nice 2-for-1 deal or something to get an even better RB or whatever position. I like the idea of blount for M. bryant. idk if the guy would go for it.

            UMadBro (has bryant) had offered me dion lewis and M. bryant for AJ green–i was hesitant w/ big ben’s injury, the Pats being unpredictable, and my thinness at WR. Thoughts on that? I feel like these guys have me sitting in the corner on timeout haha. Still beating them most weeks, won this week without a D/ST and with devante parker at WR b/c i couldn’t decide who to drop…

          • I wouldn’t do the Lewis and Bryant deal. As of now you have three top 10 receivers in a start three receiver league that is gold.

            Some potential RB for WR targets based on the team need.
            James Jones
            Brandin Cooks/Vincent Jackson
            Mike Evans
            Alshon Jeffery

            With those guys you could trade two running backs for a receiver. Blount/Williams/Ellington.

            If you aren’t dead set on trading for a receiver you could target a running back by providing depth for a stud.
            Freeman plus Bount/Ellington/Williams
            Le’Veon Bell
            Peterson

            Those two are probably wishful thinking but the teams that own them are dreadful when it comes to second running back and flex options.

          • OK so here’s another league, also half ppr w/ return yds and 3wr and 2 flexes. My team is doing pretty well, 3-1. We’re called demaryous targarian

            I’m feeling great about my WR, but RB is so-so right now (as is TE and QB). Do you see any good potential deals I could pursue?

            My roster: League 3: 10 team Yahoo, .5 ppr, 3WR/2RB/TE/ 2 Flexes with return yards:

            QB: Dalton, Tannenhill

            RB: Foster, Gore, Woodhead, Abdullah, Blount

            WR: ODB, Demaryous, Nuke Hopkins, Landry, John Brown, Moncrief, Travis Benjamin

            TE: Gates, Owen daniels (soon to be dropped)

            K: Crosby

            *Note I am not carrying a D/st right now as i hope to make a deal this week and clear out 2 spots.

            League rosters:
            http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/662778/starters

          • yeah i like those two RB offers–i’ll test the waters! Sorry replying on this one b/c the latest doesn’t have a reply tab.

            I agree with you on the WR aspect–that’s why i’m very reluctant to trade them, it’s set it and forget it and it’s a .5 ppr league.

            If i can’t make a deal, at some point i’ll probably have to pick up another WR–i’m giving up on davonte parker at this point in that offense w/ lots of mouths to feed. I’m debating dropping christine michael too–i’m really tired of carrying him!

            If it’s ok can i post a few questions about my other leagues as well? I’m always trying to upgrade and it’s so hard to find sound trade advice!

          • Post away. I always enjoy answering questions.

            In regards to the running back offers, like I said I don’t know if you can pull them off but those teams are really really hurting for depth and could view the depth as being worth it.

          • The bell owner says he’d do Bell for Freeman and Karlos–slam dunk right??

          • Yes, yes, yes. Do it before he changes his mind. Huge upgrade for you.

          • If you are still dead set on getting a receiver you could probably flip Bell for any receiver in your league. Although I would rather hold onto Bell.

          • no way! I’ll hold onto Bell tight 🙂 He’s a STUD STUD STUD. Him and AB–you must be in heaven as a Pittsburgh fan

          • It is definitely a nice combination to watch on Sundays. Although Big Ben being out makes it a lot less enjoyable.

  4. I was thinking of trading Jospeh Randle and getting Charles Clay and Mike Wallace in return. I was riding Jordan Reed and since he’s made of glass he finally caught the injury bug again so I need a TE. Doing the trade would leave me with the following RBs still: Jeremy Hill, Devonta Freeman, Arian Foster, Alfred Blue and Ronnie Hillman. I’m sitting on Julio Jones, Jordan Matthews, Jarvis Landry and Kendall Wright as my WR’s with Andy Dalton and Drew Brees at QB so I feel like TE is my only weak link right now. What do you think?

    • Your running back group could definitely handle the loss of Randle and I do think Randle is a good candidate to trade away.

      However I think you can get more in return. I don’t think that Wallace has any value at this point. If you want to target Clay that is fine but I think you need a much better second player in return.

      Are there any other receivers he has you could get in return? There are probably a lot of waiver wire guys I would take over Wallace at this point.

      If you can’t manage to get a deal done this week, Owen Daniels has a prime matchup against the Raiders as a one week plug and play and is readily available in a lot of leagues.

  5. It’s a 12 man league that is fairly competitive so there isn’t much on the waiver wire. Top 5 options are Ladarius Green, Crockett Gilmore, Richard Rodgers, Larry Donnell and Colby Fleener.

    His full Team:

    Starting:
    Peyton Manning
    Latavius Murray
    Danny Woodhead
    Demariyus Thomas
    Amari Cooper
    Gronk
    Charles Clay
    Panthers D
    Brandon McManus

    Bench:
    Ameer Abdullah
    Mike Wallace
    Martavis Bryant
    Darren Sproles
    Percy Harvin
    James Starks
    Rishard Matthews

    • I would much rather have Bryant than Wallace. That should be a doable trade.

      Even then I would think you can get a little more from a different running back needy owner. There have been a lot of underperforming running backs to date.

      I wouldn’t go for the Clay and Wallace deal. I don’t think there will ever be a week where you actually start Wallace there just isn’t a whole lot of upside there.

      Bryant has really high upside and people could be worried about him because of how the Steeler passing game looked last week.

      • I have another person I am in talks with who has Johnathan Stewart, Lance Dunbar, Alfred Morris and Bishop Sankey at RB.He is hurting. Bad. He has Calvin Johson, Odell Beckham Jr. and Larry Fitz at WR. What do you think would be a fair offer on my end to get Odell?

        • Can you post both your roster and his roster?

          • Him:

            Starting:
            Carson Palmer
            John Stewart
            Lance Dunbar
            Calvin Johnson
            OB Jr.
            Larrry Fitz
            Jason Witten
            Philly D
            Mason Crosby

            Bench:
            Brandin Cooks
            Alfred Morris
            Tony Romo
            Zach Ertz
            Bishop Sankey
            Miami D
            Michael Crabtree

            Me:

            Starting:
            Andy Dalton
            Arian Foster
            Devanta Freeman
            Julio Jones
            Jordan Matthews
            Jordan Reed
            Joseph Randle
            Broncos D
            Dan Bailey

            Bench:
            Jeremy Hill
            Jarvis Landry
            Drew Brees
            Markus Wheaton
            Kendall Wright
            Ronnie Hillman
            Alfred Blue

          • You could try any running back plus Jordan Matthews. I am not sure if that would be enough though.

            You could try Hill plus Randle for OBJ. It leaves you a little thin at running back but it improves your team as a whole.

            You could try to get him to include Stewart by throwing one of your bench players in like Wright.

            To make the deal possibly Hill, Randle, Wright for OBJ and Stewart/Morris.

            He needs running back depth and that is definitely an angle you should play up in the trade talks. This deal would mean swapping out of your lineup Hill/Randle for OBJ. That is a huge upgrade.

            Even if you can’t get a running back in return I would probably do the Hill Randle deal. You can start Hillman in weeks you need a bye week fill in. Guys also get hurt all the time at running back and you could grab one of those at some point.

            I would start the negotiations with Matthews plus the running back and work my way up to Hill and Randle.

  6. What are your thoughts trading Eli & Foster for Luck?

    My other RBs are Lynch/Rawls, Doug Martin, Lamar Miller, & scrubs.

    No PPR. Only starting 2 rbs.

    Foster has a lot of upside, so does Luck. The question is whether I come out ahead with Luck/Lynch/Martin (or Miller) vs. Eli/Lynch/Foster.

    I’ve already talked w/ the other owner and he’s only interested in this particular combo of players, not willing to consider other options – except maybe Lynch/Rawls

    Would love to hear your thoughts…

    • I probably wouldn’t do it. I do think Luck is a good guy to buy but not at that price. Rest of season I would take Foster over Luck.

      I don’t like the depth it leaves at running back either. When healthy Foster is a top five running back. I understand that when Luck is healthy he is a top three quarterback but running backs carry more value.

      I would take Foster over the Lynch/Rawls combo rest of season as well. Lynch’s injury really concerns me.

      Does he have a running back you could get in return? I really don’t like relying on the Seahawks back plus Martin as a one two punch.

      • Thanks for the response! I think you’re right, my gut is saying stand pat for now but it is an intriguing option.

        His other RBs are Blue, Gordon, Demarco, Duke Johnson & Dion Lewis. I don’t know that I’d get enough RB value in return.

        He also said he’d consider one of my WRs instead of Foster but I’m not inclined to go that route. We start 3 WRs and I currently have Cobb, Hopkins & Cooper. My WR4 is Benjamin. He wants Cobb.

        Sounds like you think I should move on?

        • Also of note – we get 6 pts for passing TDs. Not sure if that changes your opinion at all…

          • It doesn’t change it much. It gives a small bump to quarterbacks but not much.

            If you really want Luck you could try to get Lewis or DeMarco in return with Luck.

            I probably wouldn’t take that chance though.

            I wouldn’t trade any of those receivers for him either.

            I would stand pat. If Luck underperforms this week you might be able to snag him for Eli and Martin or Miller.

            You could also try to trade Eli, Martin, and Miller for Luck and one of DeMarco/Johnson/Lewis/Gordon. I do not know if he would go for that kind of deal though. It would help if Miller has been good to this point but unfortunately he hasn’t been.

      • I can’t respond to your last message but just wanted to say thanks again for the responses – much appreciated! I’m gonna pass on this opportunity and see how this week plays out.

        Good luck to you the rest of the season. Cheers.

  7. J

    going to throw this down here and start a new comment thread to try to make this easier.

    You are really balanced I think. You have a little extra receiving depth and could use that to get something else.

    The only kind of deal I really see you potentially pursuing is a 1 for 1 or maybe a 2 for 2 deal that has you trading away a receiver.

    You could trade any of your big three for a top level player at any position. If you want a running back it would give you some extra depth at that position and make your RBs and WRs more balanced depth wise.

    If you want a QB or TE your prime trade target is Niner Empire to get Gronk or Brady.

    You could also go for Lacy, although I would prefer your big three receiving group over him.

    Potential trade would be to send Demaryius (sorry you might have to change your team name) for Gronk to start. You could work your way up to offering someone off your bench in the deal as well. He needs receivers badly and has a ton of tight end depth.

    You could also try Demaryius, Moncrief, and Blount/Woodhead for Brady and Gronk

    You could stand pat and be just fine but it doesn’t hurt to go after that Brady/Gronk team looking for a trade.

    • Hey thanks a lot Andy!

      That’s a good idea–I’m going to think it over. It would be awesome to have Gronk–i’d hate to give up a big boy WR like DT, but Gronk is f**ing insane.

      I actually really like Demaryous, moncrief and blount for Gronk/brady. I’m guessing this guy is a pats fan or something, but maybe he’s open to it.

      I was thinking of pursuing latavius murray as his owner is sucking, maybe offering john brown and abdullah for him?

      • If you can get Murray for those two I like that deal.

        I worry about Demaryius. I just worry about Peyton hurting his value down the stretch. Peyton will make some great throws but then he will come back with three straight passes that look like they were thrown by my mom. I love Peyton, he has been one of my three favorite players in the NFL for the past decade but he is at the tail end of his career. Year in and year out he struggles once November rolls around and he hasn’t looked like himself this year.

        Also this isn’t the Broncos offense of the past few years. They aren’t winning games 35-31. The defense is elite and they don’t find themselves in track meet type games too often. There will be a lot more 24-20 wins this year.

        I honestly think when the year is over Gronk ends up scoring like a top eight receiver, maybe over Demaryius.

        Gronk also had his bye so that is a big plus.

        • wow those are excellent points Andy! Solid logic and i’m very intrigued. What do you say for those who argue that gronk may fade as the year goes (i haven’t checked but somebody mentioned that)

          • Gronk won’t keep up his pace, I am not concerned about that. He is currently on pace for 1600 plus yards and more than 20 touchdowns.

            If Gronk goes on to get 80-90 yards and a touchdown two out of every three games he will go for another 1,000-1,100 yards and 8-9 touchdowns to add to the 300 plus and 4 touchdowns he has right now. That would give him about 1,300-1,400 yards and 12-13 touchdowns.

            The Patriots are on a mission this season. They are going to score 30 plus points every week and Gronk is the main go to guy on the goal line.

            I have no worries about Gronk. People will say that he has a scary injury history but all of his injuries were flukey and they are not of the reoccurring type (i.e. muscle injuries or sprains).

            He only had two season where he missed a game due to injury.

            One came with the broken arm on the extra point that he rebroke when he came back for a playoff game and it got infected and kept him out longer than expected.

            The other came on a play that would have taken any player down (his ACL tear in 2013).

            Like I said, if Gronk was a receiver his numbers would be comparable with Demaryius. Being able to plug that in as a tight end just isn’t fair.

          • you make a hell of an argument. I’m sold. I’d hate giving up moncrief too, but i guess we’ll see what it takes–i’d prefer to give John brown or something.

            man, i’m getting excited thinking about this–though 80% chance he’s not interested at all

          • You never know what people will accept. I mean you just got Bell for Freeman and Williams. You never know until you try.

            I would try for the Brady and Gronk trade first then if he says no work your way to the Demaryius for Gronk straight up.

  8. Getting Odell Beckham Jr. for Freeman and Landry?

    • I like that deal. See if you can get it done without giving up Landry. If you have to trade Landry too it is still a good deal

      • I just made the trade of Freeman and Jarvis Landry for Odell Beckham Jr. I have another offer right now of Joseph Randle for Charles Clay and Ameer Abdullah because I was running Jordan Reed who is now out and the TE waiver wire is non existent. Should I take the trade?

        That would leave my whole team looking like:

        QB: Dalton and Brees
        RB: Foster, Hill, Abdullah, Hillman and Blue
        WR: Julio Jones, OB Jr., Jordan Matthews, Kendall Wright
        TE: Jordan Reed and Charles Clay
        D/ST: Broncos
        K: Dan Bailey

        • I don’t mind the trade but I would prefer to keep Randle. Abdullah is pretty much a flex play at best, even with Bell out, and while Clay has been good lately I don’t think he is worth Randle.

          I would try to move Randle if you can though. I don’t know if he keeps that job. He will have a role but I think sooner rather than later they go to a 50/50 split with McFadden.

          Does he have a higher level running back that you can get in return other than Abdullah?

          Who are some of the tight ends available on the waiver wire?

          • His other RBs are Woodhead and Latavius Murray.

            TE’s on the waiver wire are:
            Ladarius Green
            Crockett Gillmore
            Richard Rodgers
            Seferian-Jenkins
            Fleener
            Donnell
            Rudolph
            Delaine Walker
            Fassano
            Fells

          • On a week to week basis I prefer Woodhead to Abdullah, although Abdullah has much higher upside.

            Delanie Walker is a great option for tight end. I would grab him off the wire and keep Randle.

  9. qb alex smith
    rb hill – rd 9 keeper next year
    rb foster
    wr dem thomas
    wr cooks
    te d walker
    flex d martin
    k crosby
    def Cincy
    Bench rb matt jones
    bench rb t coleman
    bench wr m wallace
    bench wr moncrief
    bench st louis def
    bench qb bridgewater
    bench rb david johnson
    IR jordy nelson rd 14 keeper next year

    Got offered Cam Newton and Torrey Smith for Doug Martin, m wallace, bridgewater and david johnson. Seems like a lot of depth I’d lose, but….dying with a qb that gets TDs and I’d only really be losing Martin out of my true starters….I can only keep 2 guys anyway, so I figure Nelson and Hill have are my best ones…Also, They’re are some wr still on waivers like Hurns and T. Austin, and Antonio Adams on Tennessee is on the wire as a RB to possibly fill the two open roster spots id have if i make the deal… .thoughts?

  10. * meant dying for a qb that ACTUALLY gets TDs. Have Romo on IR, which is why i picked up Smith….thanks!

    • I typed a long version with the negative side to how this leaves you with very little running back depth and then it didn’t post. Oh well.

      In essence you will need to be very meticulous on the waiver wire to add running backs. Keep an eye on snap counts, touches, and other things that are trending up for waiver wire running backs.

      What you give up is a lot in quantity but not much in quality. Wallace and Bridgewater have very little value, and in my opinion, are just about droppable. David Johnson has talent but he won’t be doing much for this season as a rookie. Doug Martin is the only one with real value in this deal that you give up but he is still only a borderline top 20 back at best.

      See if you can mange to snag one of his low end running backs back in the deal. If not I still like it.

      Make Antonio Andrews a priority add this week if you do that deal.

      If you do not want to do the deal I do think you can get away with having Smith as your quarterback but Cam definitely has both a higher floor and ceiling.

  11. Thanks. Yeah, I tried for a better wr back, but he’s not going for James Jones in the deal. I’m 1-3, 3 game losing streak without Romo. I think my main starting RB, WR, TE and defenses are more than solid with Foster back now, I may lose a little on the flex slot if Moncrief can’t keep being a wr2/3, but I think the difference between Cam’s potential over Smith and Teddy ( he’s already gone over 35 pts twice in our scoring, while Smith has only had 1 near 30 point game out of both my qb’s in 4 possible games each) outweighs that possible flex downgrade….i know its a slight overpay but, I’m not winning with bridgewater and the only true starter I lose is Martin. I’m probably pulling the trigger and go with a less fortified bench, but an upgrade at a big scoring qb slot in our league. Hopefully wallace and Smith cancel out, trading Johnson but picking up A. Allen cancel out, and it was basically Doug Martin and Teddy for Cam….fingers crossed! Thanks again!

    • I don’t think the drop from Martin to Moncrief is a big dropoff, if it is a dropoff at all. I would put them on equal footing in terms of rest of season points.

      You can always find depth for your bench on the wire. It is hard to find an upgrade for your starting lineup.

  12. Andy!

    So a little update:
    My Bell trade got vetoed! We had this whole thing w/ a guy in the league texting everybody to stop the trade b/c my “team would be too good” and the guy “was an idiot” for trading, etc etc. Eventually we were going to do it again, but then it became clear he wasn’t really paying attention to the deal, blah blah blah. Anyway, i decided to not have my friends hate me and cancelled the trade…but then i made the Freeman + Karlos deal for AP!
    So not quite as good, but still pumped.

    Anywho, i have a question:
    Different league, .5 ppr, his Latavius murray for my Gates and Woodhead.
    At first i thought easy yes, but woodhead is very good in this format and Murray has a few questionmarks with his injuries (minor), the offense, etc.

    Also brings the question of what would i do at TE. Julius thomas is hanging on the wire, as is Ebron. Gates was very good last year but green has been decent though banged up.

    Thoughts?

    10 team Yahoo, .5 ppr, 3WR/2RB/TE/ 2 Flexes with return yards:

    QB: Dalton, Tannenhill

    RB: Foster, Gore, Woodhead, Abdullah, Blount

    WR: ODB, Demaryous, Nuke Hopkins, Landry, John Brown, Moncrief, Travis Benjamin

    TE: Gates, Owen daniels (soon to be dropped)

    K: Crosby

    link to the rosters:

    http://football.fantasysports.yahoo.com/f1/662778/starters

    he’s marshawn lynch mob–he says that’s his only and final offer, he’s a big SD fan. I tried abdullah and john brown or abdullah and gates but no dice

    Thanks!

    • Trade vetoes are the worst. I can’t stand people who veto trades but oh well Peterson is still great value.

      I think I would take that deal. I would hang onto Daniels for this week. He has a great matchup with Oakland.

      For this team it looks like Woodhead is just a guy who is in your weekly discussion for a flex spot. I would rather have Murray for the long run. However, Murray has a tough matchup this week and then goes on a bye the following week. You might be able to get better value after next week.

      Woodhead and Murray have similar points per game to date but Murray has far higher upside.

      I like Gates as a tight end option but I think tight end is a position that you can mange to get by on a week to week basis, similar to quarterback. Richard Rogers, Owen Daniels, Derek Carrier, and whoever gets the start at tight end in San Francisco could all be viable options at the position this week.

      I think you can play up the points to date and try to get something else small in the deal.

      As the deal stands I would do it, just remember you might get a bad week from Murray this week and he goes on a bye next week.

      • Thanks for the response!

        So I’m thinking maybe I’ll pass on it. I neglected to mention that I dropped Daniels so this would leave me without a TE.

        I do have a chance to get dion Lewis. His owner is struggling and thin. See his roster on the link (taming outdoor cats)
        I offered his choice of two of Woodhead, Abdullah, John brown, Benjamin and hurns.
        He counters with Landry and Abdullah.

        I like Lewis ros but I also love Landry. Thoughts on a counter not giving him up?

        • Can’t fault you for turning it down. I just like plugging Murray and a random tight end into the lineup every week more.

          I have no problem with the deal for Lewis.

          I would see if there is a way you could pry Dez off his roster. I have no clue when he will be back, I don’t bye the week 7 reports at all, but as a guy on the end of your bench that can potentially help come playoff time? He is a great guy to have.

          He is 1-3 so it would make sense for him to get something for Dez because when, if, he comes back there is a decent chance he is already out of the playoff race.

          Maybe pick 3 of the group you listed to get Dez in the deal too.

          • I hear you on Murray and I would do it but TE is very thin (one guy has 4 TEs! Gronk reed clay and someone

            So you mean like 3 of Abdullah Woodhead brown and hurns?

          • Ya. I think you have the flex depth at the position to be able to part with another one. Like I said I really have no clue when Dez will be back but if he does you got another elite player for next to nothing.

          • Ok so he said he’d do Lewis for moncrief, Woodhead and Abdullah. Thoughts?

            I love woody but I think Lewis has huge upside

          • Is that with or without Dez involved? If Dez isn’t I am not sure it is worth it. Moncrief will bounce back when Luck is healthy. Woodhead isn’t too far off from what Lewis is, although Lewis has more upside.

          • Without Dez. Hmm I’m so torn. I know what you mean bc Woodhead has decent upside. Any other permutation?

          • His team doesn’t really have anything else that is that appealing. I would stand firm on wanting be Dez and Lewis. Maybe ask him what it would take to get both. His team isn’t very good so he really could use some depth that you can help provide. Make sure he knows, nicely ha, that his team might be out of the playoff race before Dez is even back on the field. Play up the risk you are taking in going for a player who has an injury that players don’t typically come back from. Like I mentioned before, no one really knows if or when he will be back. If you can get him for a part of your team that isn’t a necessity it is worth the risk.

  13. I just made two trades recently that I would like your opinion on. I won’t tell you which side of the deal I was on.

    Trade #1: Team A gets Davante Adams and Tevin Coleman, while Team B gets Mike Wallace and Matt Jones

    Trade #2: Team C gets Vincent Jackson and Martellus Bennett, while Team D gets Jordan Matthews and Richard Rodgers

    Thanks!

    • Trade #1
      First one is pretty even. I like Adams over Wallace and Jones and Coleman are a wash but I think the longterm upside goes to Jones if he ever gets the job to himself.

      If this is a trade for bench players I would prefer to get Wallace and Jones. If this is a trade where you are going to need to start a player in the near future I want the Adams and Coleman side.

      Trade #2
      I like the side getting Jackson and Bennett. Not enough that it is a terrible deal for the other guy though.

      I think Jackson is going to perform about on par with Matthews rest of season. I think Bennett is a lot better than Rodgers. Bennett has a track record of disappearing as the season goes on though.

  14. I have a trade offer to give up Devanta Freeman and Rishard Matthews for Jamaal Charles in a PPR 1 pt league. I was thinking of countering Devanta Freeman and Jeremy Maclin for Charles and Randall Cobb since I have Travis Kelce already and dont want to stack up on too many KC players. Thanks!

    • I would immediately take the deal for Charles. If you really think there is an opportunity to get Cobb too go for it, but you need to do the deal for Charles. Charles is a stud, Freeman had a couple good games in a row.

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