DFS September 14 – Shana Tova

DFS Baseball LogoNeil previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for September 14th.

Today we have 12 games on the MLB schedule kicking off at 7:05 p.m. As always, make sure to check your lineup prior to game time for any last-minute scratches, and be sure to check the weather forecast for any potential cancellations.

 

Today is the beginning of the Jewish new year, and it seems fitting that the best left-handed starter in Dodgers’ history since the great Sandy Koufax is starting today.  There are really two options in DFS today.  Either start Kershaw and try to find your hitting points in the discount bin.  Or start anyone else and you’ll be able to pay for some hitters.  Want to see who I am going with?  Read on.

Starting Pitchers

Studs: Clayton Kershaw, Los Angeles Dodgers ($15,500), Carlos Carrasco, Cleveland Indians ($10,800)

  • What else is there to say?  Apart from Kershaw’s absolute dominance in the 2nd half, which you all are familiar with, let’s focus on his opponent, the Rockies, who are the worst team in the National League in road OPS.  High price but worth it for the best pitcher in the game.
  • Carrasco has stymied the Royals this year as he is 2-0 with a 2.57 ERA and a 9.0K/9 innings.  He has held the Royals to a collective .209/.289/.336 line while striking out 22.9% of hitters.

Bang for Your Buck: Jordan Zimmermann ($9,100), Scott Kazmir, Oakland A’s ($8,700)

  • Sure, the Phillies are hitting better these days, but this seems like an awfully low price for J-Zimm.  He has been impressive against the Phillies, holding them to a .216/.289/.338 line with 23.7% K-rate.
  • In 4 starts in 2015, Kazmir has a 1.35 ERA, 0.788 WHIP and 27 strikeouts in 26.2 innings against the Rangers.

Hail Mary: John Danks, Chicago White Sox ($6,100), Tim Hudson, San Francisco Giants ($5,100)

  • Danks has held the A’s to a collective .208/.268/.332 line.  In his only start versus the team this year, he limited them to 3 hits and 2 runs over 7 innings while striking out 6.
  • Hudson faces off against the awful Keyvius Sampson today, so he’s a good bet for the 4 points for a win.  In addition, he has held the Reds to a .202/.248/.306 collective line.  Last, the Reds are only 24th in MLB in OPS since the all-star break.  A nice value play and good potential pairing with Kershaw if you want to get some decent bats in your line-up.

Catcher

Studs: Travis d’Arnaud, New York Mets ($4,800)

I don’t know why d’Arnaud is consistently the most expensive catcher on the board, but it can be justified today against Marlins’ lefty Justin Nicolino.  Nicolino allows a .459 slugging percentage to righties.  d’Arnaud pounds lefties with a .529 wOBA and 248 wRC+.

Bang for your buck: Welington Castillo, Arizona Diamondbacks ($3,200)

Castillo has a .577 2nd half slugging percentage with 12 homers.  James Shields is 3rd in the National League with 29 homers allowed.  Beef might hit a dinger tonight.

Hail Mary: JP Arencibia, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,600)

Every time I have written recently, the Rays have played against a lefty.  Makes my job easier.  Arencibia pounds lefties (.368 wOBA) and CC Sabathia can’t get righties out (.381 wOBA against).

First Base

Studs: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox ($4,800)

The newest member of the 500 homerun club loves facing Kevin Gausman.  Papi is 4/8 with 3 extra-base hits including 2 homers and adding a walk in his career against the Orioles’ righty.

Bang for your buck: Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants ($4,300)

Belt has an impressive .362 wOBA to go along with a 137 wRC+ against righties.  He faces off against Keyvius Sampson who allows a dreadful .993 OPS to lefties.

Hail Mary: Evan Gattis, Houston Astros ($3,800)

Gattis has had success against Rangers’ lefty Cole Hamels against whom he is 3/9 with 2 homers.  Nice dart throw at this price.

Second Base

Studs: Brian Dozier, Minnesota Twins ($4,300)

Dozier gets to face off against Kyle Lobstein who is terrible against righties, allowing a .319/.370/.522 slash.  Dozier has a .278/.391/.528 line at home versus southpaws.

Bang for your buck: Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays ($3,500)

I keep going back to the well of Forsythe versus lefties and it keeps paying off.  Sabathia struggles against righties, and Forsythe has a .429 woBA and 178 wRC+ versus lefties.  Forsythe also enjoys facing CC, going 6/12 with 4 extra-base hits and 2 homers in his career.

Hail Mary: Jedd Gyorko, San Diego Padres ($3,100)

Gyorko has been a hot and cold player throughout his career and he has been especially hot recently with a .542 slugging percentage in September.  Jeremy Hellickson has been the opposite as he had a .518 slugging percentage against in August (the last month he pitched).

Shortstop

Studs: Carlos Correa, Houston Astros ($4,800)

Cole Hamels is tough, but Correa has a .408 wOBA and 163 wRC+ versus lefties.  Might as well splurge if you have the budget.

Bang for your buck: Wilmer Flores, New York Mets ($3,400)

Little known fact – Flores is dynamite against southpaws.  On the season, he holds a .319/.360/.628 line against lefties and gets to hone his craft against Justin Nicolino today.

Hail Mary: Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,500)

Another one of my righty Ray plays against lefties. Beckham has a .533 slugging percentage against lefties with a .337 wOBA.

Third Base

Studs: Miguel Sano, Minnesota Twins ($4,800)

Sano has really enjoyed his digs at Target Field.  At home, Sano has an unbelievable .485 wOBA and 215 wRC+.

Bank for your buck: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays ($3,800)

Longoria has an extensive history against CC, going 24/61 with 13 walks, 14 extra-base hits and 6 homers.

Hail Mary: Marcus Semien, Oakland A’s ($3,300)

Semien faces off against John Danks and has always hit lefties well.  He has a .318/.364/.450 line against southpaws this year.

Outfield

Studs: Yoenis Cespedes, New York Mets ($5,600), Chris Davis, Baltimore Orioles ($5,500), Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox ($4,800)

  • In case you have been under a rock, Cespedes is on fire in the 2nd half with a .300/.348/.622 line.  Excellent match-up against Nicolino.
  • Eduardo Rodriguez has weird reverse splits, allowing a .391 wOBA and .579 slugging percentage to lefties.  Davis has hit same handed pitching well this year with a .301/.361/.542 line.
  • Kevin Gausman also has weird reverse splits with a .522 slugging percentage allowed to righties.  Betts has a .283/.331/.475 line against right-handers.

Bang for your buck: Justin Upton, San Diego Padres ($4,400), Aaron Hicks, Minnesota Twins ($3,600), Anthony Gose, Detroit Tigers ($3,300) 

  • Upton has good career numbers against Hellickson going 5/10 with 4 extra-base hits, 2 homers and 2 walks against the DBacks’ righty.
  • Hicks has a .409 wOBA and 163 wRC+ against lefties.  Should mash against Lobstein
  • Gose has a .322 wOBA and 103 wRC+ against righties.  Tyler Duffey allows a .353 wOBA to lefties.

Hail Mary: Juan Lagares, New York Mets ($2,800), Brandon Guyer, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,600), Mikie Mahtook, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,400)

  • Lagares has a .349 wOBA and 125 wRC+ versus lefties.
  • Guyer has a .359 wOBA and 133 wRC+ versus lefties.
  • Mahtook only knows how to hit southpaws, but has become one of my favorite platoon plays.  .282/.378/.615 versus lefties on the year.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.