DFS – September 12 – Capitalizing on Splits

DFS Baseball LogoPaul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for September 12th.

Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule starting at 1:05 pm.  As always, double check your lineup prior to the start of each contest for any late scratches and be sure to check the weather report before game time for potential cancellations. The forecast calls for a chance of rain/thunderstorms in half of today’s games, specifically games on the East Coast.  Good luck!

 

I’ve gone heavy on the lefty/righty splits today and have managed to find some very good hitters at some excellent prices today. This is important because there is so much starting pitching and I don’t want to be left out in the cold there. The best lineups to stack are the Cubs vs Jerad Eickhoff as well as Red Sox right-handed bats, Dodgers LH bats against Rubby de la Rosa and the Mets LH bats (and Cespedes who has reverse splits) vs Williams Perez. It will be important if you go big with your starting pitchers to take Neil’s advice from earlier this week, and to make some last-minute decisions based on lineups today. With the players listed below, I think that will be more than enough to set yourself up for a winner. Good luck!

Note: Special thanks to the one and only Jim Finch who helped me out greatly with some comments today as I had to be out of town for most of yesterday.

POS Player Opponent Price Rank
 SP Madison Bumgarner
 Padres $12,200  ★★★★
MadBum’s K rate is at 29.9% in the second half, and he struck out 14 Padres in 7.1 innings last time they met.
 SP  Jose Fernandez
Nationals $11,700 ★★★
As bat as the Nats have been lately, they’re hitting. This is Jose’s first game back from biceps injury.
 SP  Noah Syndergaard
Braves $10,700 ★★★
Braves have just a .290 wOBA over the past 2 weeks. Noah had a rough August (4.59 ERA but xFIP was 3.33)
 SP  Chris Archer
Red Sox
$12,500 ★★★
Sox are best offensive team in the last 30 days. This year Archer 0-2, 4.63 ERA but 2BB, 19K in 11.2 IP vs Sox
 SP Lance McCullers
Twins $9,900 ★★★★
Last week I recommended this exact match up and McCullers 3-hit the Twins over 7 innings with 8 K.
 SP Rick Porcello
Rays $9,600 ★★
2.97 ERA in the 2nd half for Porcello, but even better a 23.2% K rate. 1-0 1.80 ERA, 2 GS against Rays in ’15.
SP Ian Kennedy Giants $9,100 ★★
Kennedy is 2-1 w/a 1.69 ERA and 1.22 WHIP vs SF in 4 starts this year. His career ERA and WHIP at AT&T (86.2 IP) are 2.42 and 1.12 (1.38 and 1.15 this season).
 SP Yordano Ventura
Orioles
$8,500 ★★
Ventura two-hit these Orioles on July 27th, striking out 11 batters. Has 30 K in last 3 GS over 18.1 innings. 
SP Dan Haren, Roenis Elias, Tommy Milone Phillies, Rockies, White Sox $6,300-$7,000
With all the high-priced SP options today, here are a few from the bargain bin that have solid match-ups.
 C Kyle Schwarber
Jerad Eickhoff $4,500 ★★★★★
Eickhoff is allowing LH hitters to slug .771 against him. This is a dream match-up for the RHP-killing Cubs C.
 C Brian McCann
Marco Estrada
$4,200 ★★★ 
McCann is 6-15 lifetime against Estrada and has 19 HR this year against RHP; 11 in the second half.
 C Jonathan Lucroy
Jeff Locke
$3,700 ★★★
Lucroy is hitting .280 in the second half with a .803 OPS. He’s also 10-24 with 5 BB vs Locke lifetime. 
 C Alex Avila Cody Anderson $2,000
Avila is a punt play, but his Hard Hit rate has been climbing and Anderson has a 6.17 second half ERA.
 1B Anthony Rizzo
Jerad Eickhoff
$5,300 ★★★★
If only one could afford all of the Cubs today. Rizzo has 23 HR vs RHP this year, and 3 dingers this month.
1B Ryan Howard
Dan Haren
$3,200 ★★★
Howard has had success against Haren in his career, including 3-7 this year with 2 home runs. 
1B Jose Abreu
Tommy Milone $5,200 ★★★★
Abreu is heating up with an OPS over 1.100 this month. Milone gives up some power to RHH. 
1B Chris Davis
Johnny Cueto
$4,700 ★★★
Davis has 22 second-half home runs and was 2-3 with a double and a HR against Cueto two weeks ago.
2B Logan Forsythe
Rick Porcello $4,200 ★★
Forsythe has a .373 wOBA over the past 30 days and is 4-6 this year against Porcello.
2B Daniel Murphy
Williams Perez $3,900 ★★★
Perez gives up an .888 OPS against LHH, while Murphy has 25 doubles and 9 HR against RHP this year.
2B Chase Utley Rubby be la Rosa
$3,400 ★★★
Utley’s OPS is over .900 in his past 20 games. de la Rosa gives up a TON of power to LHH. (18 HR .557 SLG)
3B Mike Moustakas
Chris Tillman
$3,900 ★★★
Moustakas has a 1.000 OPS over the past 30 days and has a 1.318 OPS vs Tillman lifetime; 2-3 with 2B this year.
3B Matt Carpenter
Anthony DeSclafani
$4,400 ★★★
Carpenter has a .873 OPS vs RHP, has gotten on base 16 of past 17 games and has taken DeSclafani deep this year. 
3B Miguel Sano
Jose Quintana
$4,900 ★★★
Sano has 16 HR in just 200 AB and has a ridiculous 58.3% Hard Hit rate against LHP.
SS Didi Gregorius
Marco Estrada
$3,300 ★★★ 
Gregorius is on fire, hitting .400 over the past 2 weeks, with most of his damage against RHP.
SS Xander Bogaerts
Matt Moore
$3,500 ★★★ 
Bogaerts is batting .372 with a .900 OPS vs LHP this year. Hitting .347 over past 2 weeks and 2-2 vs Moore this yr.
SS  Carlos Correa
Hector Santiago
$4,500 ★★★
Correa is hitting .300/.356/.578 against LHP. Santiago has a 5.22 second-half ERA and has allowed 20 HR to RHH.
SS Corey Seager
Rubby de la Rosa
$3,400 ★★★
I like this match-up for the young LHH shortstop. As mentioned above, Rubby really struggles against LHH
OF Jay Bruce Lance Lynn $3,700 ★★★
Bruce has a long history of beating up Lance Lynn, hitting .500/.529/1.000 over 28 at bats.
OF Rusney Castillo Matt Moore  $2,800 ★★★★
Castillo has a .348/.380/.515 line against lefties and is hitting .323 in the second half
OF Curtis Granderson Williams Perez  $4,600 ★★★
22 of Granderson’s 23 homers have come off righties and he’s a much better hitter on the road. Perez has an ERA & WHIP of 8.76 and 1.72 over last 30 days.
OF Andre Ethier Rubby de la Rosa  $3,400 ★★
Batting .316 post all-star and .301 against righties. De La Rosa struggles against lefties with a .308 BAA and 18 homers (29 HR total).
OF Jason Heyward Anthony Desclafani  $4,000 ★★★
Desclafani is a mess at home (4.96 ERA, 1.51 WHIP) and 11 of his 15 homers have come off lefties. Heyward has 10 HR, 11 SB and a .293 BA vs righties.
OF Jose Bautista Ivan Nova  $5,000 ★★★
Bautista has big power vs righties (29 HR) and has 15 home runs over 47 games at Yankees Stadium. He’s 6-18 against Nova.
OF Yoenis Cespedes Williams Perez  $5,500 ★★★★
Take everything I said about Curtis Granderson and apply it here, except add a few more home runs against righties and on the road.
OF Carl Crawford Rubby de la Rosa  $3,000 ★★★
Another lefty Dodgers bat that prefers righties and hitting at home (.379). Crawford also has 9 steals over the last 32 games.
OF Avisail Garcia Tommy Milone  $4,200 ★★★★
Milone has HR issues with righties.  Garcia is hitting lefties well this year and is 5-12 against Milone (.417). He’s hitting .333 in September.
OF Ryan Braun Jeff Locke  $5,000 ★★★
Braun has a .330/.413/.587 slash line vs lefties this year. He has 19 double, 11 HR, 16 SB and a .282 career average at PNC and a .321 career average vs Locke.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly

 

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Paul Hartman
Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.
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