DFS September 11 – Hanging In

DFS Baseball LogoNeil previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for September 11th.

Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule kicking off at 7:05 p.m. As always, make sure to check your lineup prior to game time for any last-minute scratches, and be sure to check the weather forecast for any potential cancellations.

 

Should be another fun day in DFS.  This is my DFS busy season as the NFL and MLB are intersecting.  It was a decent start for my football teams last night – I hope you read my NFL DFS column.  Now it’s time to get back into the baseball groove.  On to today’s winners:

Starting Pitchers

Studs: Jake Arrieta, Chicago Cubs ($14,100), Steven Matz, New York Mets ($8,400)

  • Arrieta has a ridiculous 0.91 second half ERA and gets to face off against the Phillies who really struggle versus righties.  Get him in your lineups.
  • Matz had his last start cut short due to a blister which is a bit disconcerting, but he is taking on the offensively challenged Braves.  He strikes out more than a batter an inning and has an ERA under 2.00 in his first 3 MLB starts.  Great price for Matz today.

Bang for Your Buck: Jimmy Nelson, Milwaukee Brewers ($7,600), Robbie Ray, Arizona Diamondbacks ($6,300)

  • Nelson has held the Pirates lineup to a .219/.296/.276 line while striking out an impressive 29.2% of their hitters.  Nelson has already started 5 games against the Pirates this year and is 4-1 with a 1.72 ERA and over a K/inning.
  • Robbie Ray is a different pitcher at Chase Field rather than on the road.  At home this year, he has an impressive 2.71 ERA with a .297 wOBA allowed.

Hail Mary: Colby Lewis, Texas Rangers ($6,100), Jered Weaver, Los Angeles Angels ($5,000)

  • Lewis is 1-0 with a 2.00 ERA and 0.944 WHIP in 3 starts versus Oakland this year.  Holds Oakland batters to a .219/.291/.296 line.  
  • Weaver ha a 2.86 home ERA and a .298 wOBA allowed at home.  He is 1-0 with a 1.20 ERA and 0.800 WHIP in 2 starts versus Houston this year, including a complete game shutout.  Good value here.

Catcher

Studs: Buster Posey, San Francisco Giants ($3,900)

A great play at this price if he plays.  Posey is an impressive 10/20 with 2 HR and 2 BB versus Padres starter Andrew Cashner.

Bang for your buck: Matt Wieters, Baltimore Orioles ($2,900)

Danny Duffy allows a .348 wOBA to right-handed bats.  Wieters has a .337 wOBA and 117 wRC+ versus left-handed pitching

Hail Mary: JP Arencibia, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,800)

Arencibia is 8/18 with 3 2B and 2 HR against lefties already this year.  Should be able to hit against Wade Miley.

First Base

Studs: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals ($4,300)

Faces the awful Mike Wright today who allows a .407 wOBA to lefties.  Hosmer has a .389 wOBA and 150 wRC+ versus lefties and an identical .389 wOBA and 150 wRC+ in the 2nd half.

Bang for your buck: Adam Lind, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,100)

Lind is as solid as ever against right-handed pitching with a .297/.387/.516 line.  Lefties have hit well against Charlie Morton to the tune of .277/.372/.455.

Hail Mary: Brandon Belt, San Francisco Giants ($3,800)

Cashner has allowed a dreadful .285/.369/.521 line to left-handed bats.  Belt has a well above-average .364 wOBA and 138 wRC+ against righties.

Second Base

Studs: Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers ($4,000)

I like a Rangers lefty stack versus Jesse Chavez and the A’s.  Odor has a magnificent .304/.333/.560 line since the all-star break

Bang for your buck: Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays ($3,700)

I keep going back to the well of Forsythe versus lefties and it keeps paying off.  Miley allows a wOBA of .331 to right-handed bats.  Forsythe has an outstanding .312/.388/.652 line versus lefties.

Hail Mary: Joe Panik, San Francisco Giants ($3,700)

Cashner will likely struggle to get the Giants’ lefties out.  Panik has a .369 wOBA and 141 wRC+ versus righties.

Shortstop

Studs: Brandon Crawford, San Francisco Giants ($3,300)

See Joe Panik above.  Cashner can’t get lefties out and Crawford has a .339 wOBA and 121 wRC+ versus righties.

Bang for your buck: Starlin Castro, Chicago Cubs ($3,100)

Castro got a bit warm in August and has been scorching hot in September.  Lefty Adam Morgan of the Phillies is not the most prolific out maker.  Could be a nice night for Castro.

Hail Mary: Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,700)

Another fine member of a possible Rays’ stack.  Beckham has a .533 slugging percentage against lefties with a .337 wOBA.

Third Base

Studs: Matt Carpenter, St. Louis Cardinals ($4,700)

Michael Lorenzen is absolutely abysmal against left-handed hitters.  Carpenter should be at the top of the Cardinals lineup and has a .374 wOBA versus righties.

Bank for your buck: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays ($4,000)

Longo has a .417 wOBA and 174 wRC+ slash against lefties and has been very hot in September.

Hail Mary: David Freese, Los Angeles Angels ($3,100)

Freese is 8/16 with a homer and 2 BB versus Dallas Keuchel.

Outfield

Studs: Ryan Braun, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,800), Shin-Soo Choo, Texas Rangers ($4,500), Curtis Granderson, New York Mets ($4,400)

  • Braun is 8/23 with 4 extra-base hits including a homer and also has 3 walks against Charlie Morton.
  • Choo has a .314/.438/.532 slash in the 2nd half and has a .383 wOBA on the year against righties.
  • Wisler is like a fart to a bonfire against lefties giving up hits at a .331/.436/.626 line.  Granderson is excellent against righties with a .392 wOBA and 154 wRC+

Bang for your buck: Alex Gordon, Kansas City Royals ($4,300), Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles ($3,900),Michael Conforto, New York Mets ($4,100)

  • Gordon;s .375 wOBA and 140 wRC+ should play well against Mike Wright who can’t get lefties out.
  • Adam Jones has a .355 wOBA and 125 wRC+ versus lefties.
  • Conforto has mashed against righties this year with a .401 wOBA and 161 wRC+.

Hail Mary: Gregor Blanco, San Francisco Giants ($2,900), Mikie Mahtook, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,500), Steve Pearce, Baltimore Orioles ($2,800)

  • Another Giant lefty.  Has a .340 wOBA and 121 wRC+ versus righties.  Should do some damage versus Cashner.
  • Another solid Rays option.  Mahtook has a .278/.366/.639 line versus southpaws.
  • Pearce hasn’t hit well against lefties this year but had a great .472 wOBA and 209 wRC+ against southpaws in 2014.  Pearce homered the other day.  I think he can have a nice stretch run.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach

 

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Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.