DFS September 9 – Last Second Tips

DFS Baseball LogoNeil previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for September 9th.

Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule kicking off at 1:45 p.m. As always, make sure to check your lineup prior to game time for any last-minute scratches, and be sure to check the weather forecast for any potential cancellations.

 

Hello boys and girls!  Generally when I give you my advice in this forum, I am only telling half the story.  When I fill out my DraftKings lineups, I focus on 5 main areas: 1) lefty/righty splits for both hitters and pitchers; 2) home ballpark and home/road splits for hitters and pitchers; 3) batter versus pitcher stats; 4) weather factors (rain, wind blowing in or out); and 5) lineup positioning.

Obviously, when I make these picks, I only really have the information on the top 3 of my focuses.  I will often, however, change my lineup if a cheap hitter is near the top of a lineup against a weak pitcher.  As an example, I started Jason Rodgers and Cesar Hernandez in multiple lineups yesterday to get under the cap.  This is just something to keep in mind when you set your lineups.  On to today’s winners:

Starting Pitchers

Studs: Collin McHugh, Houston Astros ($10,800), Jake Odorizzi, Tampa Bay Rays ($9,100)

  • I don’t really love the high-priced pitching options today, but McHugh has dominated the A’s when they have faced off.  Against the current A’s roster, McHugh has stymied them to the tune of a .151/.197/.249 slash allowed while striking out an impressive 39.7% of hitters.
  • Odorizzi is not a very heralded pitcher, but he quietly is 10th in the American League in both ERA and FIP while maintaining a K rate north of 8.1/9 innings.  He faces off against the Tigers who are only 24th in the majors post all-star break in runs scored.

Bang for Your Buck: Jeff Samardzija, Chicago White Sox ($8,100), JA Happ, Pittsburgh Pirates ($7,000)

  • Samardzija is a real pain the butt for fantasy owners, but when he is on, he is great.  He has generally been on against the Indians, holding their current roster to a .154/.196/.151 line.
  • Happ has been very good in the 2nd half with a 3.42 ERA.

Hail Mary: Joe Kelly, Boston Red Sox ($6,300), Zack Godley, Arizona Diamondbacks ($4,800)

  • Kelly has been amazing recently as he has five straight starts with 6+ innings pitched and 2 earned runs or less.  While the Blue Jays can mash, he did strike out a season high 10 batters against the Jays back in April.  
  • This is a sneaky GPP play.  Godley only has one start at home on the season and he dominated, allowing 0 earned runs over 6 innings and striking out 7.

Catcher

Studs: Brian McCann, New York Yankees ($5,000)

I am shocked at how expensive McCann is and that may keep him out of my lineups.  But, Ubaldo Jimenez has struggled on the road with a .283/.367/.459 slash allowed and has a 6.88 2nd half ERA.  McCann has a .401 wOBA and 156 wRC+ with 16 homers at Yankee Stadium.  If you have the budget, he is the best catcher on the board.

Bang for your buck: Derek Norris, San Diego Padres ($3,100)

Norris is a nice hitter against lefties with a .320 wOBA and 105 wRC+.  Faces Chris Rusin at Petco today.

Hail Mary: JP Arencibia, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,900)

As I mentioned on Monday, Arencibia has always been able to hit lefties, even in his darkest years.  He is 3/10 with 2 homers thus far against southpaws in 2015.  Kyle Lobstein is a meatball server and Arencibia has a chance to do some damage.

First Base

Studs: David Ortiz, Boston Red Sox ($4,900)

Drew Hutchison has allowed an abysmal slash line of .362/.428/.592 on the road.  Ortiz has been a monster against righties at home all year with a .447 wOBA and 186 wRC+.

Bang for your buck: Eric Hosmer, Kansas City Royals ($4,300)

Lefties have a .358 wOBA against Pelfrey and he has a 6.15 road ERA with a .391 wOBA allowed.  Hosmer has hit .333/.396/.528 against righties this year.

Hail Mary: Pedro Alvarez, Pittsburgh Pirates ($3,300)

Keyvius Sampson is awful, especially against lefties who hit him at a .361/.451/.533 clip.  Alvarez has 19 homers versus right-handed pitching this year.

Second Base

Studs: Brandon Phillips, Cincinnati Reds ($4,100)

Phillips likes hitting against JA Happ, going 7/14 with 5 extra-base hits including 3 homers to go along with 3 walks against the Pirates lefty.

Bang for your buck: Logan Forsythe, Tampa Bay Rays ($3,700)

Just in case this is your first time reading my stuff, I like Forsythe against lefties.  Lobstein allows a .324/.377/.500 line to righties and Forsythe has a .420 wOBA and 176 wRC+ against lefties.

Hail Mary: Neil Walker, Pittsburgh Pirates ($3,600)

As mentioned above, Sampson is a human pinata.  This is a great price for Walker against a hittable righty, as Walker hits righties well with a .335 wOBA and 115 wRC+.

Shortstop

Studs: Carlos Correa, Houston Astros ($5,000)

If you have money to blow on a shortstop, Correa faces off against some guy named Aaron Brooks (not to be confused with the former Saints Quarterback).  Best chance of any shortstop to put up double digits.  (How’s that for hard hitting analysis?)

Bang for your buck: Didi Gregorious, New York Yankees ($3,100)

I have already outlined Ubaldo’s struggles in the 2nd half and on the road.  Did you know that Didi has a .325/.363/.444 line in the 2nd half?

Hail Mary: Tim Beckham, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,700)

Another fine member of a possible Rays’ stack.  Beckham has a .512 slugging percentage against lefties with a .327 wOBA.

Third Base

Studs: Mike Moustakas, Kansas City Royals ($4,200)

As mentioned before, lefties feast on Pelfrey.  The Moose has a .397 wOBA and 155 wRC+ at home versus righties.

Bank for your buck: Evan Longoria, Tampa Bay Rays ($4,000)

Longo has a .365/.433/.591 slash against lefties and has already smoked 4 homers in September.

Hail Mary: Travis Shaw, Boston Red Sox ($2,800)

I have already outlined Hutchison’s struggles on the road.  Shaw loves home cooking as he has hit a crazy good .356/.398/.667 at home which translates to a .424 wOBA and 170 wRC+.

Outfield

Studs: Mookie Betts, Boston Red Sox ($4,900), Jackie Bradley Jr., Boston Red Sox ($4,800), Jacoby Ellsbury, New York Yankees ($4,200)

  • Betts is 5/9 with a walk and 3 extra-base hits including a homer against Hutchison.
  • Bradley is insane at Fenway with a .455/.529/.795 line, equaling a .551 wOBA and 258 wRC+.
  • Ellsbury is 7/11 with 2 walks and a homer against Ubaldo.

Bang for your buck: Adam Jones, Baltimore Orioles ($3,900), Carlos Beltran, New York Yankees ($3,600), Odubel Herrera, Philadelphia Phillies ($3,200)

  • Righties hit .319/.374/.532 against Sabathia.  Jones has a .355 wOBA and 125 wRC+ against lefties and is 19/61 with 4 walks, and 9 extra-base hits including 4 homers against CC.
  • Beltran has a .352 wOBA and 124 wRC+ versus righties and a .395 wOBA and 154 wRC+ in the 2nd half.
  • Julio Tehran struggles on the road (.395 wOBA allowed) and against lefties (.394 wOBA allowed).  Herrera has hit .350/.399/.469 in the 2nd half and has a .333 wOBA and 109 wRC+ versus righties.

Hail Mary: Brandon Guyer, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,900), Mikie Mahtook, Tampa Bay Rays ($2,200), Nolan Reimold, Baltimore Orioles ($2,000)

  • I tried a Rays stack last night and it didn’t work but I may have to go back to the well.  Guyer has a .365 wOBA and 138 wRC+ versus lefties.
  • Another solid Rays option.  Mahtook has a .417 wOBA and 174 wRC+ versus southpaws.
  • Reimold has teed off against lefties and CC can’t get lefties out.  Reimold has a .366 wOBA and 133 wRC+ versus southpaws.

For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach

 

Fantasy Rundown Banner
Need more DFS picks, Waiver wire suggestions, prospect news and general fantasy baseball goodness, head on over to Fantasy Rundown.

Related Posts

The following two tabs change content below.
Neil
Neil has been an avid fantasy sports player since 1991 and a profitable low stakes DFS grinder since 2014. Neil is ranked in the top 20% of DFS players in 3 sports and in the top 10% of DFS players for his stakes per RotoGrinders rankings. As a native Montrealer Neil hopes to get a Major League Baseball team back to his hometown some day soon.