Neil previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for September 4th.
Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule kicking off at 2:20 p.m. As always, make sure to check your lineup prior to game time for any last-minute scratches, and be sure to check the weather forecast for any potential cancellations.
I don’t think that I have seen a day quite like today with respect to batter versus pitcher match-ups. In fact, I think I could write this column just based on fantastic BvPs. While I won’t actually do that, there will be a much larger focus on individual match-ups as opposed to my usual analysis of splits. Let’s get this party started:
Studs: Jacob deGrom, New York Mets ($11,400), Jon Lester, Chicago Cubs ($9,600)
- DeGrom keeps getting stronger as the season goes on as his 2.62 2nd half xFIP and 10.76 2nd half K/9 will attest. And he has been solid against the Marlins lineup, holding them to a .243/.293/.275 line and striking out 30% of hitters.
- Lester has been especially effective against this Diamondbacks squad, with a slash allowed of .181/.244/.312 and 23.6% K rate.
Bang for Your Buck: Mike Bolsinger, Los Angeles Dodgers ($8,100), Drew Hutchison, Toronto Blue Jays ($7,100)
- Bolsinger has a 1.69 2nd half ERA and is especially effective against righties, holding them to a .248 wOBA. The Padres are overwhelmingly right-handed which does not bode well for their chances. Bolsinger has allowed a .205/.267/.254 line to the Padres lineup and struck out 35.9% of hitters.
- Hutch has been dynamite at home with a 2.46 ERA and faces the Orioles at Rogers Centre today. He has also held the Orioles to a .222/.278/.422 line with a 31.4% K rate.
Hail Mary: John Danks, Chicago White Sox ($5,300), Tanner Roark, Washington Nationals ($4,200)
- Danks is 9-2 with a 2.69 ERA in his career against Kansas City and has held this current lineup to a .197/.272/.313 line with a 21.9% K rate.
- This is really playing the opponent as Roark is cheap and faces the weak hitting Braves, who have scored the fewest runs over the past week and have been abysmal all year.
Studs: Brian McCann, New York Yankees ($4,000)
The first of our BvP all-stars! McCann has absolutely owned Jake Odorizzi in his career, going 10/16 with 6 extra-base hits including 2 homers and holding a 1.313 slugging percentage.
Bang for your buck: Tucker Barnhart, Cincinnati Reds ($2,800)
Matt Garza allows a dreadful .303/.366/.505 line to left-handed hitting. Barnhart is a decidedly above-average hitter against righties with a .328 wOBA and 104 wRC+.
Hail Mary: Jose Lobaton, Washington Nationals ($2,200)
Make sure to check the Nationals line-up, but if Lobaton is in there, you might want to play him against Julio Tehran and the Braves. In his career he is 7/13 with 2 homers and 2 walks against the Braves’ righty.
Studs: Joey Votto, Cincinnati Reds ($5,200)
I have already outlined Garza’s troubles against lefties. Votto is a pretty good lefty and smokes righties to the tune of a .438 wOBA and 179 wRC+.
Bang for your buck: Victor Martinez, Detroit Tigers ($2,900)
I am actually avoiding Corey Kluber today because many of the Tigers have had some good success against him in their careers. V-Mart is among the Tigers who do damage going 9/25 with 3 homers against the Klubot.
Hail Mary: Mike Napoli, Texas Rangers ($2,900)
Napoli probably won’t be playing against right-handed starter Garrett Richards, but if he does, he has gone 5/9 with 3 extra-base hits and 2 walks against him, good for a 2.206 OPS.
Studs: DJ LeMahieu, Colorado Rockies ($4,400)
LeMahieu is always a good play at home where he has a .401 OBP. He has also fared well against Chris Heston of the Giants going 6/9.
Bang for your buck: Rougned Odor, Texas Rangers ($3,100)
This is a great price for Odor who has a .389 wOBA and 145 wRC+ in the 2nd half.
Hail Mary: Skip Schumaker, Cincinnati Reds ($2,000)
Another great BvP play. Schumaker has gone 8/19 in his career against the always hittable Matt Garza. And as mentioned above, Garza struggles against lefties.
Studs: Xander Bogaerts, Boston Red Sox ($3,800)
Bogaerts is dynamite against left-handed pitching and faces the Phillies’ Adam Morgan who has trouble getting righties out. Bogaerts has a .400 wOBA and 154 wOBA+ against lefties while Morgan has allowed a .360 wOBA to righties.
Bang for your buck: Jhonny Peralta, St. Louis Cardinals ($3,500)
Peralta faces off against JA Happ today and has been very effective against lefties this year, especially power-wise where he holds a .485 slugging percentage.
Hail Mary: Ruben Tejada, New York Mets ($3,000)
Tejada has impressive career number against the Marlins’ Tom Koehler, against whom he is 7/20 with 4 extra-base hits.
Studs: Miguel Cabrera, Detroit Tigers ($4,600)
For most guys, facing off against Corey Kluber would lead me to stay away from them. But Miggy absolutely owns the Klubot going 20/35 with 2 walks, including 5 homers, which amounts to a .571/.595/1.057 slash line.
Bank for your buck: Todd Frazier, Cincinnati Reds ($4,400)
Another good play at 3B is Todd Frazier who faces the always homer prone Matt Garza. Frazier has hit for good power against Garza in his career, going 6/19 with 3 homers.
Hail Mary: Giovanni Urshela, Cleveland Indians ($2,600)
Urshela faces off against Kyle Lobstein, a very hittable lefty. Urshella is pretty solid against southpaws, holding a .317 wOBA and 102 wRC+.
Studs: Charlie Blackmon, Colorado Rockies ($4,900), Bryce Harper, Washington Nationals ($5,000), Mike Trout, Los Angeles Angels, ($4,900)
- Blackmon is great against righties at home with a .402 wOBA. He has also done very well against Chris Heston in his career going 5/9 with 2 homers.
- Harper and the Nats face off against Julio Tehran and Harper has killed righties this year with a .473 wOBA and 206 wRC+. And he has been great against Tehran going 9/21 with 5 extra-base hits including 2 homers and adding 2 walks.
- Martin Perez allows a .365 wOBA and .477 slugging percentage to righties. Mike Trout is pretty good against lefties with a .407 wOBA and 169 wRC+.
Bang for your buck: Carlos Gonzalez, Colorado Rockies ($4,700), Stephen Piscotty, St. Louis Cardinals ($4,500), Jay Bruce, Cincinnati Reds ($3,900)
- This is way too cheap for CarGo who is red-hot including 2 more homers yesterday. Versus righties in Coors he has a .461 wOBA and 181 wRC+. And on top of that Chris Heston has allowed a .365 wOBA and .482 slugging percentage against lefties on the road.
- Stephen Piscotty has been phenomenal against lefties with a .361/.385/.556 line. JA Happ is not terrible against righties, but I like the Cardinals’ rookie’s chances
- I love a Reds stack today. Garza struggles against lefties and Bruce has smoked him in his career going 11/30 with 7 extra-base hits including 2 homers.
Hail Mary: Gregory Polanco, Pittsburgh Pirates ($3,300), Jonny Gomes, Kansas City Royals ($2,300), Ryan Raburn, Cleveland Indians ($2,500)
- Polanco is really excited to see Carlos Martinez on the bump. Polanco is an excellent 8/11 with 3 extra-base hits and 3 walks against Martinez which equates to a .727/.786/1.091.
- I love Gomes against lefties and he faces John Danks today who he is 6/19 against in his career with 3 extra-base hits and a homer.
- Raburn is one of my favorite platoon plays against lefties, especially mediocre lefties like Kyle Lobstein. Raburn has a .395 wOBA and 156 wRC+ against southpaws. Love this play at this reasonable price.
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @nschnurbach
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