Paul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for August 15th.
Today we have 15 games on the MLB schedule starting at 1:07 pm. As always, be sure to check the weather report before game time, but there doesn’t seem to be any real weather concerns today. Also, be sure to check your lineup for any last-minute scratches. Good luck!
Today I’m just looking at the night games, completely disregarding the two afternoon games. Draft Kings is not offering a full games contest, so I’m leaving out the Yankees and Blue Jays as well as the Mariners and Red Sox. While I enjoy the short slates, with just 2 games, I won’t play an afternoon contest. It looks to me that like could be some fairly high scoring tonight, making me happy that I saved a little money on my starters. I imagine, as usual, there will be a lot of Rockies stacking but at least for me I’m feeling good about Jon Gray today. I won’t start him mind you, but I have no intention of stacking against him. As far as Colorado bats, they’re hitting just .223 and striking out nearly 25% of the time over the past two weeks. I’m fading that game as I just don’t see a lot of value options there. Here are my choices for today; as always best of luck.
1. John Lackey, SP, St. Louis Cardinals ($9,200) John Lackey takes on the Marlins in St. Louis tonight as one of baseball’s best home park pitchers. Since moving to the Cardinals last season, he has a 10-3 record at home with a 2.03 ERA. It should just get better as Miami is the 5th worst hitting club since the All-Star break. Lackey hasn’t faced the Marlins since 2005 when he was a member of the Los Angeles Angels, so his 1.35 career ERA against them doesn’t hold any predictive value. The Cardinals are the best team in baseball at home and the Marlins have the fewest road wins in the majors. This is a pretty easy choice for me.
2. Patrick Corbin, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks ($7,300) Corbin takes on the Braves today in Atlanta after a nice bounce back game last week gave him 3 QS out of his last 4 GS. Corbin has come back nicely from TJ surgery with a 23.5% K rate and just a 5.4% BB rate. He’s The Braves are the 2nd worst hitting club since the All-Star break with just a .241/.290/.343 line and are the 3rd worst team in the majors this year against LHP with a .281 wOBA. Vegas isn’t as confident as I am with the D’Backs as just -135 favorites.
3. Adam Lind, 1B, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,400) While I’m fading the Colorado game, I’m going hard at this game in Philadelphia against RHP Jerome Williams. Lind absolutely crushes RHP, hitting .299/.380/.530 with all 17 of his home runs against them. He’s hitting .360 in August and since May ended he has 25 walks to just 32 strikeouts. Lind is also hitting the ball hard in August, with a 33% LD rate and a 40% HH rate. I was hoping he’d be a little cheaper than this today, but the people at Draft Kings aren’t stupid either.
4. Andrew McCutchen, OF, Pittsburgh Pirates ($4,800) Another match up I looked hard at was the Pirates against Jon Niese. Now Niese has thrown (sit down for this) 12 QS in his last 13 outings, but he’s given up some power to RH hitters, and struggled mightily against the Pirates earlier this year. In that game, McCutchen took him deep, going 2-2 with a walk. Overall, McCutchen has a 1.422 OPS against Niese with 4 XBH and 3 BB in 17 at bats. More importantly though, McCutchen is on fire. I don’t care what pitcher you are, when McCutchen is hitting like this (1.242 OPS this month) you’re not going to stop him.
5. Curtis Granderson, OF, New York Mets ($4,100) Granderson goes up against Charlie Morton today, and while I’m not terribly high on Niese today, I’m equally concerned about Morton. Morton has just 1 QS in his past 5 games and gives up a ton of power to LH hitters. Enter Curtis Granderson. Granderson mashes RHP, to the tune of .282/.384/.514 with 19 home runs hit. He’s hit 4 HR already this month, slugging .565. While his 40% HR/FB rate this month is obviously not sustainable, I’m actually looking for it to climb a little through today’s outing.
6. Ryan Braun, OF, Milwaukee Brewers ($4,700) Have I mentioned Jerome Williams yet? Williams has the 5th highest ERA in all of baseball as well as the 5th highest HR/FB rate. Right-handed hitters have hit 16 HR against Williams already this year; he’s awful. Ryan Braun meanwhile is better against LHP, but still has an OPS of .810 against RHP. He’s got a 1.019 OPS in August with 4 home runs since the All-Star break. I’m milw’king this match-up for all I can. (that’s a $4,700 pun)
7. John Jaso, C, Tampa Bay Rays ($3,300) I was tempted to put Jonathan Lucroy in here for the same price, and I still might, if I also play a Brewers stack today. Jaso is my cash game choice though, hitting .319/.378/.500 against RHP and .333/.390/.500 in August. He faces Colby Lewis, who is the worst 12 game winner in the majors right now. LH hitters are hitting .266/.315/.453 against him, but have 10 HR already as Lewis has a propensity to give up the long ball. Lewis also has a 5.26 ERA at home for the year, meaning even the light-hitting Rays should score a few runs today.
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly
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