DFS – August 11 – SaberSim

DFS Baseball LogoPaul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for August 11th.

Today we have a full slate of games on the MLB schedule starting at 7:07 pm.  As always, be sure to check the weather report before game time as there may be issues with the following game: Colorado at New York (NL). And be sure to check your lineup for any last minute scratches.

Player Fangraphs Proj. DK Pts
Zack Greinke 22.39
Luis Severino 15.27
Jonathan Lucroy 7.06
Paul Goldschmidt 10.05
Robinson Cano 8.02
Xander Bogaerts 7.46
Hanley Ramirez (no proj available)
Josh Reddick 8.76
David Peralta 7.90
Rusney Castillo 8.69
TOTAL 95.60

Fangraphs introduced their new SaberSim daily hitter and pitcher projections yesterday and I was anxious to see how my picks stacked up today. I do my homework the night before and usually have most of my write ups done then as well,. Today I saved the intro until morning so I could measure my work versus their numbers that come out around 4:00 am.

Like everyone else, I LOVE fangraphs, and this latest tool sure looks excellent. If they could produce values for the next-day’s games I could use it for my research, but as is it’s a great quality check the next morning. As you can see, I’m projected to score only 95.6 pts, but I’ll add 9.4 for Hanley (if he’s sitting still I’ll swap in Tulo) making my score 105.

That won’t be enough to win any tournaments today, but as a base projection I’m reasonably happy with my choices. Someone will figure out the ultimate fangraphs lineup and I wouldn’t be surprised if it did quite well. For now, this is another great tool to add to your existing tool-shed when making out your lineups.

1. Zack Greinke, SP, Los Angeles Dodgers ($12,000) Here are the facts:

  • Greinke is the top scoring pitcher today – he’s averaging 23.7 FPPG on Draft Kings.
  • Greinke is pitching at home where he is even more dominant – he has a 1.52 ERA at home allowing just a .182 BAA.
  • Greinke has a history of success against today’s opponent – he is 4-1 lifetime with a 1.73 ERA against the Nationals.
  • His opponent is struggling offensively – the Nats are the 5th worst offensive club over the past 30 days.
  • Vegas loves this match up – Vegas has the Dodgers as -175 favorites with just 6.5 runs as the game score.

There really isn’t anything not to like here, and I don’t even mind the $12,000 price tag. 

2. Luis Severino, SP, New York Yankees ($5,500) This isn’t the slam dunk pick that Greinke is, but I love the value here for this former top pitching prospect. Severino spent 2015 in AA and AAA, and was a combined 9-2 with a 2.45 ERA with a strikeout per inning. Andy Germani wrote him up just last week , and he went out and threw 5 innings of one run ball, striking out 7 while allowing just 2 hits in his debut. Today he faces the Indians in a tough match-up against their LH lineup. Vegas has this game as a virtual tie, with the Indians as slight -110 favorites, but with just 7 runs they’re counting on a pretty low scoring affair. With the way the Tribe has been striking out of late (21% of the past 2 weeks), I’m hoping Severino can punch out 6-7 batters to get a decent score.

3. Robinson Cano, 2B, Seattle Mariners ($4,000) Cano has already hit 6 home runs in the second half after hitting just 6 in the entire first half. It’s not just the power that’s improving; after a nearly 1:4 BB:K ratio through the first half, Cano has 10 BB with just 12 K in the second half. Through it all, he has maintained a strong Hard-Hit rate making this recent stretch more of what I expected. Today he faces Chris Tillman, whom he has hit .414 against with 2 home runs in 29 at bats. I expect Cano to continue his success today.

4. Xander Bogaerts, 3B, Boston Red Sox ($3,800) I caught myself cheering for Bogaerts on Sunday in Detroit as he ripped a double to L-CF. My ridiculous Tigers love just wasn’t enough to control my thrill of watching XB at the plate. I got a few dirty looks as I cheered Bogaerts on in my Tigers hat and shirt, so I quickly quieted down. The truth of the matter is – this kid is awesome, and against LHPs he’s otherworldly hitting .390/.429/.505. Today he gets Justin Nicolino of the Marlins who has a 5.14 xFIP after his first two major league starts. I won’t be afraid to cheer him on today.

5. Josh Reddick, OF, Oakland Athletics ($4,100) Josh Reddick goes up against Drew Hutchison today holding a .311/.359/.504 line against RHP. He hits better on the road, with the Skydome a much better hitting environment than his home park. Hutchison meanwhile has given up 30 runs (22 earned) over his past 6 outings in just 29.2 innings. Hutchison is inexplicably better at home, but at 10-2 with a 5.42 ERA his luck seems to be running out.

6. Rusney Castillo, OF, Boston Red Sox ($3,200) I’ve got a few Red Sox RH hitters in my lineup today against Nicolino. Castillo comes at an excellent price and is hitting in a great spot in the lineup. He has also got a near-Bogaerts line of .375/.405/.450 against southpaws this year. As bad as the Sox have been, they’ve got some great young RH bats in their lineup that should be able to knock around young Justin Nicolino today.

7. Jonathan Lucroy, C, Milwaukee Brewers ($3,300) There’s not a lot to see here as the former top three C has been an absolute train-wreck in 2015. He faces Dan Haren of the Cubs today, hitting RHP better than LHP. He’s riding a modest 6 game on-base streak, mostly due to his 17% BB rate in August. The walks won’t likely come against Haren, but he is sitting with a 4.64 xFIP after 22 starts with just a 16.6% K rate. The last time these two faced off, Lucroy went 2-2 with a home run. While I don’t expect that kind of success today, I think Lucroy can continue to get on base with a hit or two.

Now that’s refreshing!
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly


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Paul Hartman

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Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.