DFS – July 29 – The Day Games

DFS Baseball LogoPaul previews today’s game action and shares his top Draft Kings plays for July 29th.

Today we have a full slate of games on the MLB schedule starting at 12:10 p.m. Keep an eye on the weather forecast, as there may be issues with the following game: Washington at Miami.

Make sure to check your lineups before game times for late scratches or further weather issues.  

 

Today I am filling in for Neil who is on a much-deserved family vacation. Jim will cover his Friday spot, as we don’t miss a beat here at Fantasy Assembly. Yesterday I proved (however fortunate it may have been) that there is more than one way to beat Draft Kings. I spent $23,400 on pitching, had 6 of my 8 bats combine for 9 points and still made it in the money, both in a tournament and a 50/50. Like I warned though, don’t try that at home! Well, I may never try it again either, going back to a more respectable split today. Draft Kings doesn’t have any all-day contests, so I’m going to look at the afternoon games, thus avoiding the $15,000 Kershaw question. Not sure I could pull the trigger on that one, but not sure I wouldn’t either. If I do a night contest, I’ll be sure to tweet my lineup, but for now, here are my picks for the day games.

1. Jon Lester, SP, Chicago Cubs ($9,100) Lester is home against the Rockies this afternoon, and while he has no discernible splits (home/away/day/night), he has been outstanding in July. In five starts, Lester has a 1.53 ERA, 26.7 % K rate, just a 3 % walk rate, while holding hitters to a .180 AVG. The Rockies meanwhile have struggled on the road (.296 wOBA, 24th best) and against LHP (.290 wOBA, 26th best) this year. Vegas has the Cubs as the biggest favorite of the afternoon at -250, making this pick, at this price a pretty easy choice.  

2. Patrick Corbin, SP, Arizona Diamondbacks ($7,900) Corbin takes on the Mariners in Seattle today in what should be a very low scoring game. In fact, Vegas has it as the lowest scoring game of the day at just 6.5 runs. Corbin has been awesome since his return from TJ, striking out 23 in 22 innings while allowing just 3 walks. The Mariners won’t cause that rate to change much as they strike out 5 times as often as they walk against LHP. It’s a tough match-up against King Felix for young Corbin today, but I expect a solid QS with 6-8 punch outs, even if the win may be a little more difficult to come by.

3. Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Chicago Cubs ($4,800) Ok, Rizzo has been in a slump admittedly, hitting just .218 for the month. The nice part about Rizzo’s game though is that even when he’s cold, he’s still getting on base at a good clip (.351 during same period). Today he goes up against RHP Eddie Butler who struggles mightily against LH hitters, allowing them to hit .328/.438/.517. Now as much as I’d love to see Rizzo break out of it, he should be able to score some decent points either way. You see Butler walks LH bats at a 14.5% rate while striking them out at just 10.3%. It should be easy pickings for Rizzo, and hopefully just what he needs to bust out of this slump.

4. Jason Kipnis, 2B, Cleveland Indians ($4,700) Kipnis bats .369 against RHP, while his opponent today Jeremy Guthrie allows LH hitters to bat .328 against him. If you guessed that Kipnis has had success against Guthrie in the past, you would be correct. He is 11-25 against Guthrie lifetime with 3 doubles, 2 home runs and 3 walks, for a 1.264 OPS. To make matters worse (or better), Guthrie’s ERA is 7.19 on the road compared to 3.96 at home. I suspect Kipnis won’t have a tough time keeping up his dominance over the KC right-hander today at Progressive Field. 

5. Michael Brantley, OF, Cleveland Indians ($4,600) I’ve got 2 stacks going this afternoon; Cleveland LH hitters and Chicago Cubs LH bats. While Brantley hits left-handers as well as right-handers, his match-up against the above-mentioned Jeremy Guthrie is too good to ignore. Brantley doesn’t quite have Kipnis’ lifetime numbers against Guthrie, but he is 10-32 with 4 doubles and a home run, including 2-4 this year. Brantley has been incredibly consistent all year, but since the All-Star break he has been on fire, hitting .350 with an OPS over 1.000. I’m counting on him keeping that up today.

6. Chris Coghlan, OF, Chicago Cubs ($3,400) Since I have no idea where David Murphy and Ivan DeJesus are playing now, I’m going with another LH-hitting specialist today in Chris Coghlan. Coghlan goes up against Eddie Butler today hitting .265/.353/.451 against RHP this year. He’s hit 11 home runs against right-handers including one last night, bringing his OPS post-All Star break to over 1.000. Before I chose any other bat in today’s lineup I penciled Coghlan in; I love this match-up.

7. Francisco Lindor, SS, Cleveland Indians ($3,500) Lindor is another hot bat going up against Jeremy Guthrie today, hitting .319 since the break, including last night’s 0-4. Lindor bats in the two-hole, and with hitters 1, 3, and 4 in my lineup today I need Lindor to contribute as well. It’s a risk, but on a short slate like today, it’s a calculated one.

Now that’s refreshing!
For my complete lineup, follow me on twitter @fantasyassembly

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Paul Hartman
Fantasy Baseball player since 1987. Creator of Fantasy Assembly, yet just fortunate enough to be a part of it.
Paul Hartman

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