Welcome to our series of Dynasty League Rankings. These rankings will be a little different from the keeper league rankings, and obviously the 2014 rankings. For this series, we’ll be looking at the next 5-7 years of production. There won’t be a lot of minor league players in these rankings, especially if they won’t be producing in the big leagues in 2014 or 2015. The idea behind this list is that you are drafting a new team in a new dynasty league, with the desire to be competitive for the next 5-7 years. Let’s get to it.
1. Mike Trout, ANA: After his historic rookie campaign, Trout cut his K rate, increased his BB rate, all while maintaining his ISO in the .230’s. There’s no question who belongs number one.
2. Bryce Harper, WAS: While I ranked McCutchen ahead of Harper in the keeper rankings (1-3 years), Harper gets the nod here. At 21 years old, the absolute best 7 years are ahead of him. OPS of .850, Harper also increased his BB rate and reduced his K rate in his 2nd season.
3. Andrew McCutchen, PIT: In 5 seasons, McCutchen has averaged 21 HR and 25 SB with a .296 AVG. He’s just 27, and while his speed may dimish into his mid-30s, he should provide more of the same for the next 6 years.
4. Gioncarlo Stanton, MIA: Before his 24th birthday, Stanton has 117 career home runs. While his BB rate went up in 2013 with no lineup protection, Stanton’s ISO took a big step back. He has elite power though, and I wouldn’t expect less than 30 HR again.
5. Yasiel Puig, LAD: Perhaps the most exciting player in baseball, Puig has speed and power. Lots of it. While he may easily go 20/20, he doesn’t have Stanton’s power. They’re a closely ranked pair, but if I could only have one for the next 7 years, it’s Stanton.
6. Carlos Gonzalez, COL: While going 26/21 in less than 400 ABs is amazing, Gonzalez has only accumulated more than that once in his 5 seasons. At 28, he should have plenty of healthy seasons ahead, but his K rate hit epic levels in 2013. His FB rate was the highest it has ever been, along with his HR/FB% . He’s a great player, but there are too many risks for me to rank higher than this.
7. Justin Upton, ARI: At 26 years old, Upton had a monstrous start to 2013, and a disastrous middle. A 25% K rate brought him back to his age 19-21 seasons. I don’t believe he suddenly became a bum. His 2nd half slash line .275/.354/.467 was actually better than his first half .255/.353/.463. That is just around his 3 year average. Look for 20-25 HR, 10-15 SB and a .280 AVG, but know that he has the talent to produce much better than that.
8. Adam Jones, BAL: Last aboard the Jones bandwagon because of his dreadful 20/5 K:BB ratio, Jones has proven himself to be a consistent producer. While at 28 he has likely peaked, he has produced an average of 90 R, 90 RBI, 30 HR and 14 SB over the past 3 years. For roto leagues Jones is as steady as they come. Expect some drop off in speed into his 30’s , but enjoy the ride as long as you can.
9. Ryan Braun, MIL: I still expect some solid years ahead for Braun, but at 30, with a PED suspension behind him, he likely won’t age as well as he might otherwise have. His K rate spiked and his power dropped in his shortened 2013 season. Expecting 25-30 HR and 15 SB isn’t unreasonable, but expecting much more is.
10. Jason Heyward, ATL: I havent gotten off the Heyward bandwagon. While injuries have reduced his playing time to 130 games on average over the past 3 seasons, Heyward is still just 24 years old. Looking closer at 2013, Heyward reduced his K rate leading off, while hitting more line drives. In 6 years he`ll be the same age as Braun, and I`d wager in that time, Heyward will produce more 20/20 seasons.
11. Byron Buxton, MIN: Baseball’s number one prospect has incredible speed, extra base power, with great strike zone judgement. He could very well be baseball’s next top 3 player. While his power hasn’t developed yet, he’s just 19 years old and there is some projection there. He does everything exceptionally.
12. Jay Bruce, CIN: At just 26 years old, Bruce has 6 full seasons in already, with the last 3 topping 30 HRs. He has excellent power, and he chips in 5-10 SBs per year. While 2013 looks great on paper, Bruce’s K rate hit an all-time high, as he swung at more pitches and made contact less often. I find it hard to gloss over a 26% K rate, but with a career mark of 24%, it is what it is with Jay Bruce.
13. Matt Kemp, LAD: Kemp will probably make this ranking look silly once or twice in the next 7 years, but there is way too much risk here to rank higher. While his shoulder surgery may be another year behind him, the ankle surgery nearly threatened his career. He likely won’t run at all before Spring Training, leaving 2014 another tough road for Kemp and his fantasy owners.
14. Wil Myers, TB: Still just 22 years old, Myers put up a 185 ISO in 2013 in his Tampa Bay debut. A lot of ground balls to go along with a high K rate isn’t always a recipe for success, I have confidence in his bat. He makes loud hard contact and should be a lock to put up 25 HRs for each of the next 7 years.
15. Oscar Taveras, StL: At 21 years old, hopefully Taveras is ready to stake his claim among the games best outfielders. He has the ability to move up to the top 5 of this list, but his injury history, lackluster performance in a very shortened 2013, and the uncertainty of starting in 2014 move him here. Good power and speed combination with an excellent approach at the plate should make him a valuable commodity for years.
16.Jacob Ellsbury, BOS: While we may never see 20 HRs (let alone 30) from Ellsbury, he is a great contact hitter with the ability to steal 50 bases. Whether he ends up in Boston or somewhere else, he’ll hit, run and score consistently.
17. Jose Bautista, TOR: 33-year-old Bautista has lost time in each of the past two seasons, yet has still averaged 38 HRs and an ISO of about .300 since 2010. His power should play into his late 30’s and he also carries an excellent K/BB rate
18. Christian Yelich, MIA: Yelich may not reach 20 HRs for a few years, but he has one of baseball’s best swings. He’ll hit a ton of line drives until his home run power develops. He also has some speed and can add 15-20 SBs per year. His 2013 numbers didn’t scream future all-star, but if you watch this 21-year-old you’re certain he will be.
19. Carlos Gomez, MIL: 27-year-old hitters eh? Gomez, after 4 partial seasons where he showed promise, finally put it all together in 2013. 24 HRs and 40 SBs should warrant a much higher ranking than this. The K rate concerns me, and he probably should be closer to a .250 AVG than his .284.
20. George Springer, HOU: Did somebody mention K rate? 24-year-old Springer should get to start in 2014 for the Astros. He has power and speed but lacks the hit tool to consistently make good contact. He could hit 30 HRs and steal 30 bases, but he may well get exposed at the big league level. I’m cautiously optimistic, but Gomez listed above, may be his best outlook.
21. Yoenis Cespedes, OAK: At 28 years old Cespedes is still a bit of a mystery. He’s a very aggressive hitter who has excellent power. He can also chip in a few bases. Cespedes saw his BB rate decrease and his K rate increase in 2013. I think he’s a 25 HR 10 SB guy though moving forward, but there really is a wide range of possible outcomes.
22. Billy Hamilton, CIN: 23-year-old Hamilton has game changing speed. There is absolutely no doubt about that. He could probably steal 70 bases in 2014 with only a .300 OBP. Unfortunately, that just might be what he hits though. Insane value in roto leagues, less so in points leagues.
23. Austin Jackson, DET: At 26 years old, Jackson has already shown to be a 15/15 guy who scores 100R while hitting .280. He’s also slowly reduced his K rate. You could do a lot worse for your #2 OF.
24. Starling Marte, PIT: 25-year-old Marte is Ellsbury without the high contact rates. He brought his K rate down from 27% to 24%, but he’ll need to keep moving in that direction to be successful. Marte also doesn’t walk, leaving him at greater risk of having his SB numbers decline.
25. Domonic Brown, PHI: Like Jackson, this 26-year-old started with the Phillies in 2010. Look it up! Unlike Jackson, 2014 was Brown’s first year with more than 5 HR. Cherry picking numbers aside, Brown broke out in 2013, yet without a 6 week hot stretch he really just did more of what he’s always done. There’s talent and upside there, but there’s real risk as well.
26. Alex Gordon, KC: Gordon will be entering his 8th season in 2014 as a 30-year-old. He took a small step back in 2013, hitting more fly balls, walking less and hitting for a poorer average. He’s pretty reliable though now for 15-20HR 90-100R and 10SB.
27. Avisail Garcia, CHW: Just 22, Garcia has some crazy tools and should eventually grow into a good power/moderate speed guy. He lacks plate discipline however, but there really is enough raw talent there for him to be a very good hitting outfielder.
28. Matt Holliday, StL: As consistent as they come, Holliday is only ranked here because he’ll be 34 when next season starts. His ISO took a small hit in 2013, but he’ll likely be good for 20-25HR, with .290/.370/.490 for the next few years.
29. Desmond Jennings, TB: At 27 years old, if Jennings will ever live up to the hype he once had, 2014 had better be it. I can see an uptick in his power to 15-18 HR with 30 SB. His poor discipline limits his AVG. I’d be willing to bet he makes this ranking look silly once. Over the next 7 years though, I don’t think he warrants higher.
30. Nick Castellanos, DET: 21-year-old Castellanos has a bright future in Detroit. He has great bat speed to go with good plate coverage. He drives the ball to every field. The HR power is a question, but he should give 15-20HR with a lot of doubles and a good batting average.
31. Hunter Pence, SF: Probably underrated here, Pence averages 25 HR ,80R, 90RBI,15SB and a 280AVG. At 30 years old, there’s no upside to that but you could certainly do worse. I don’t see him doing anything gracefully, but there’s a chance he’ll age that way.
32. Leonys Martin, TEX: 25-year-old Martin stole 36 bases in 2013. He doesn’t walk, strikes out at a 20% rate and has little power. There’s upside for 10-12HR and 40SB though, making him potentially a very useful fantasy player.
33. Sin-Shoo Choo, CIN: 31-year-old Choo went 21/20 in 2013 with a .432 OBP . One of the older guys on this list, Choo has a ton of value at the top of the lineup for someone. He really improved his BB/K rate in 2013 assuring himself a big payday. While I may not want him on a 7 year deal, his next 5 should be very good.
34. Alex Rios, TEX: Rios will enter 2014 as a 33-year-old. With 18 HR and 42 SB in 2013, Rios is primed for a big year in Texas. Poor BB rates and a mediocre ISO , not to mention his age limits his upside though and I don’t expect many good years ahead.
35. Alejandro De Aza, CHW: At 29 years old, De Aza broke out in 2013 with 17 HR and 20SB. His K rate was high at 21%, but potential 20/20 guys don’t grow on trees. There’s limited upside here as 2013 may have been his peak.
36. Clint Frazier, CLE: Just 19 years old, Frazier has little business on this list for at least another year. He’s a special talent though with speed, power, plate zone coverage. It likely won’t be long and he’ll be unattainable via trade or otherwise in dynasty leagues.
37. Albert Almora, CHC: Another 19-year-old with quick hands and great athleticism. While Almora may provide as much value with his defense as his offense, he still could contribute 15 HR, 15SB with a solid OBP and run production. He’s one of my favourite prospects and could be a great #2 hitter for a really good future Cubs lineup.
38. Dexter Fowler, COL: At 27 years old, Fowler like Jennings needs to break out in 2014. Unfortunately Fowler just seems to break. There is 15/20 potential in that bat, and with his strong OBP, Fowler just needs to stay healthy.
39. Michael Brantley, CLE: Just 26, Brantley provides modest pop with modest speed. He puts the ball in play and should have no difficulty maintaining a good AVG. From 10/17 to 15/20 isn’t impossible and it would make Brantley worth owning.
40. Jayson Werth, WAS: Yes, he’s 34, but Werth should provide good power and some speed for the next 4-5 years. A good OBP, with decent K rates and 25 HR pop, he’ll likely be undervalued in dynasty leagues.
Check out the rest of the Dynasty League Rankings.